Significant movement in the NFL MVP race over the last four weeks has the competition down to two main candidates. Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and New England Patriots QB Drake Maye have firmly established themselves as the front-runners following Week 12.
Only a few weeks ago, it seemed like another familiar battle between stalwarts Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen was brewing. Then, the MVP race was flipped upside down thanks to both the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills losing unexpected games, causing both players to stumble.
Stafford, meanwhile, has been playing out of his mind over the last several weeks while Maye continues to lead a storybook Patriots turnaround that few saw coming. As the NFL regular season hits the home stretch, the number of true contenders who can legitimately step up and challenge Stafford and Maye is dwindling.
Stafford and Maye take a commanding lead
Another flawless performance from Matthew Stafford boosted his odds on BetMGM considerably after sitting at +135 odds last week. He is now the odds-on favorite to win the award at -235. As Rams fans serenaded the veteran QB with “M-V-P” chants in SoFi Stadium on Sunday night, Stafford delivered three more TD passes and 273 passing yards during a blowout win over Tampa Bay.
Now sitting at 308 consecutive passing attempts without an interception — only the eighth streak of 300-plus passing attempts without a pick this century — Stafford hasn’t thrown one since Week 3 against Philadelphia.
Nate Atkins, senior writer for The Athletic covering the Rams, offered more insight into Stafford’s miraculous stretch.
“Matthew Stafford is on a heater he’s never experienced before, and one that few ever have seen in the history of the game. He’s up to 30 touchdowns and two interceptions, joining a class of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes for the best touchdown-interception ratio to start a season. Now he’s thrown 27 straight touchdowns without an interception,” Atkins said.
“It’s because Stafford is that comfortable with Sean McVay’s plans in an offense that’s moved more under center and with play-action and multiple tight ends on the field that become moveable chess pieces to this 17th-year quarterback. As long as he’s protected when he does drop back, he’s set up to play at a different speed than everyone else.”
Stafford is the NFL’s leader in QB Rating (113.7) and TD passes (30) and is also fifth in passing yards (2,830). He’s playing the best football of his career for a team that is currently the favorite to win the Super Bowl on BetMGM.
With a favorable schedule down the stretch that includes only two matchups against playoff hopefuls, Los Angeles could be favored in each of its remaining six games barring any major injuries.
Things didn’t come nearly as easily for Drake Maye (+200) during New England’s narrow Week 12 road win in Cincinnati. The Patriots became the NFL’s first team to 10 wins by extending their winning streak to nine. But New England needed to rally from an early double-digit deficit, thanks in part to Maye’s pick-six in the second quarter.
The second-year signal caller recovered admirably from the turnover to finish Week 12 with 294 passing yards and a touchdown — extending his league-leading passing yardage total to 3,130 yards in the process. Maye’s MVP odds dipped only slightly from +175 odds.
Consistency from Maye remains a major factor behind his third-ranked QB rating (110.7). He also has the NFL’s best completion percentage among regular starters (71 percent). Maye’s raw stats, coupled with New England’s unexpected turnaround, make for an enticing MVP narrative.
Going forward, the Patriots need to figure out how to keep Maye on his feet after left tackle Will Campbell (MCL sprain) and left guard Jared Wilson (high ankle sprain) both exited with injury against the Bengals. Both rookie offensive linemen are expected to miss time, with Campbell, the No. 4 overall pick, potentially going on IR.
Even before injuries to the left side of New England’s offensive line, Maye had been sacked 37 times this season — third highest in the league behind Cam Ward and Geno Smith.
Maye still gets the benefit of two major showcase games in back-to-back weeks coming off a late-season bye week in Week 14. New England faces Buffalo and Baltimore in Weeks 15 and 16. Outdueling two former MVPs could act as a final push for Maye to close the gap on Stafford.
Jonathan Taylor, Josh Allen see significant drop
Losses for second-tier candidates are part of the reason the MVP race is developing into a two-man battle.
A surprising loss in Houston on Thursday night dropped Josh Allen (+2000) from third place and +450 odds to a tie for fourth with Mahomes (+2000). The Texans playing backup QB Davis Mills made Buffalo’s loss bad enough, but Allen’s second consecutive multi-interception game gives him nine for the season after only six all of last season during his MVP year.
Flawless football down the stretch, and some help from Stafford and Maye, is the only way Allen can earn back-to-back MVP awards at this stage in the season.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (+1800) delivered a dud in an overtime loss, missing out on a chance to earn significant MVP credibility facing Kansas City on the road. The Chiefs defense contained Taylor to only 58 rushing yards on 16 carries with zero touchdowns. Kansas City also limited Taylor to two catches for eight yards. Previously at +750 odds and in fourth place, Taylor picked the wrong week to put up a season-low in total yards.
In that same game, Mahomes threw for 352 passing yards while rallying the Chiefs for a much-needed victory. The former MVP’s odds maintained steady as he’s only thrown for one touchdown pass over his last three games.
The only other player with odds shorter than +5000 is Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (+4000). Despite solid season-long numbers for one of the NFC’s best teams, Hurts suffered a dip from previous +3000 odds after Dallas rallied from a 21-point deficit to beat the Eagles.
