If you’re reading this article, chances are you’ve hopped on the Same Game Parlays we’ve published for broadcast.
I want to pour one out for last night’s SGP because that’s as sick of a beat as we’ve taken this year.
With 5:12 to go in the third quarter, Brandon Ingram made a layup right after Kon Knueppel banged a three.
Both got them within one point of covering their leg – 16 and 23 points respectively.
The live under on BI was 29.5 with Knueppel at 19.5.
Somehow, over the next 17 minutes of action, neither would score a single point until Knueppel’s game-tying three with 10 seconds left in regualtion. Even with the bonus overtime minutes, BI still couldn’t put one more point up.
As much as we shout from the mountaintops for victories big or small, all seasoned bettors know how to take a punch to the face.
Losing with grace isn’t for everyone.
That’s now two icy results over the last three with Tyrese Maxey selling out three parlays ago.
Turning the page to tonight, the Raptors got on a plane immediately after that gruelling loss and arrived in New York ready for a print preview of the upcoming NBA Cup quarterfinals.
The Knicks welcome Toronto to town knowing they’ll play again on December 9th to decide who goes to Las Vegas.
In addition to those stakes, this matchup is significant for two reasons.
For the Raptors, this is a major litmus test of their newfound standing in the East.
Much has been made of their soft schedule and this is their toughest test of November.
This is also a revenge game for all three players involved in their blockbuster trade three years ago.
Sadly, Immanuel Quickley is the only one of the three available to participate tonight.
Lucky for him, his offensive strengths line up well with New York’s weaknesses.
I’ll lead with him and break down the rest of our YourWay FanDuel SGP for tonight’s game.
The following three legs combine to pay +257.
Immanuel Quickley 3+ threes
The Raptors’ game against the Hornets fell apart in the fourth quarter as Toronto couldn’t buy a bucket.
Don’t blame IQ though as he finished with a 22-point, 10-assist double-double and shot 3-of-7 in the final quarter.
His range from deep is critical for Toronto’s spacing and I’d expect him to be relied on again versus his former team.
By no stretch has New York been sound defensively this year, their defensive rating ranks 14th.
They are particularly vulnerable from deep allowing the second-highest frequency of shots from deep and the fifth-worst percentage.
IQ has saved his best for his former team hitting 14-of-25 shots from the field and 6-of-13 from deep in three games since being traded.
Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride, and Jordan Clarkson are the guards who’ll likely match up with him – none who profile as elite defenders.
Coming off a disappointing result and up against a true rival, I’m counting on Quickley to play with purpose.
Jalen Brunson less than 32 points
This leg is ultimately anchored on my belief in Toronto’s fifth-ranked defence, the driver of their recent success.
Even including the overtime result last night, the Raptors have failed to allow any opponent to score over 120 points in their last 10 games.
Additionally, the Raptors have shown a propensity to trap and double opposing star playmakers and force the other four to make a play.
Here’s the game log of recent point guards with their season averages in brackets:
LaMelo Ball – 14 points (19.5 ppg)
Andrew Nembhard – 9 points (17.2 ppg)
Donovan Mitchell – 17 points (30.6 ppg)
Egor Demin – 5 points (8.5 ppg)
Tyrese Maxey – 24 points (31.7 ppg)
Those are stark differences especially from the superstars.
To Brunson’s credit, he’s really stepped up since OG Anunoby has been sidelined averaging 31.6 ppg over five games.
To me though, I see this as a great sell-high opportunity.
In four contests against Toronto last year, Brunson averaged just 18.3 ppg when his season average was 26.0.
According to Cleaning The Glass, the one area of the floor Toronto takes away is the mid-range. They allow the third-lowest frequency of shots from that zone.
If you’ve watched any Knicks games, you know that’s precisely where Brunson lives.
Karl-Anthony Towns 10+ rebounds
If Brunson isn’t rolling, who will get going for the Knicks? KAT’s the guy I envision giving Toronto trouble today.
New York owns the fourth-best rebounding rate and is league-best at closing out defensive possessions.
Towns has the size to be a mismatch for the Raptors’ wings and has a proven track-record to support this leg.
In 18 games played this season, KAT has registered double-digit rebounds in all but one game.
In four games versus the Raps last year, he averaged 14.5 rpg.
Toronto’s doing a lot of things well; rebounding is something they’re simply league average at.
Considering Jakob Poeltl’s track record on back-to-backs and his nagging back injury, this isn’t an ideal spot for him even coming off a near triple-double.
If KAT stays out of foul trouble, he projects to have a plus-game.
