Bitcoin’s price likened to a compressed spring by analyst.
The last occurrence of such an “asymmetric risk-reward ratio” in Bitcoin was during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to André Dragosch, Head of Digital Asset Research at Bitwise in Europe.
This is probably the most important work I’ve done on #Bitcoin & Macro so far.
It involves a lot of computation and is somewhat complex — because financial markets are complex at the end of the day.
The question investors constantly face is:
“𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻… pic.twitter.com/TUaFGM5SAT
— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 28, 2025
“Back then, Bitcoin quickly recovered from the shock in March 2020 and then increased sixfold. Call it a compressed spring, a ball underwater — whatever you like,” the analyst stated.
He noted that from a macroeconomic news perspective, investors are factoring recession fears into the price of the leading cryptocurrency. In reality, the threat of a downturn is receding. Therefore, all negative narratives are already priced into the digital gold’s quotations, Dragosch believes.
“I think expectations for global economic growth will accelerate from this point, based on the volumes of monetary stimulus, indicating a resumption of acceleration, including in 2026,” the expert asserted.
Historical Optimism
A trader known as Mister Crypto is confident that Bitcoin will traditionally show growth at the end of the year after Thanksgiving (November 27).
Bitcoin always pumps after Thanksgiving.
I doubt this time will be different. pic.twitter.com/LnhpJaVmWW
— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) November 29, 2025
In his opinion, the short-term market structure shows signs of stabilization after capitulation. Data indicates that major players are opening new long positions in Bitcoin. Meanwhile, investor sentiment is in the extreme fear zone, which has historically preceded price recoveries.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has approached the 30 mark. In previous bullish cycles, this level coincided with market lows and reversals.
The potential for a rebound is also supported by Bitcoin’s trend deviation from the 50-week moving average, which currently stands at $102,000. Most often, the cryptocurrency has restored parity with this metric.
Mister Crypto also highlighted a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for digital gold. Markets anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve will end its policy of quantitative tightening and lower the key rate in December.
Regarding the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency, the expert offered a cautious forecast. In his assessment, the market is generally in a bearish phase, and a recovery might be followed by another decline, as conditions for sustainable growth have not been established.
Earlier, ARK Invest analysts listed December drivers for Bitcoin.
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