Happy birthday, CUSMA. Is seven your lucky number?
By John Stackhouse
The much-pilloried Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement was signed seven years ago this weekend—on November 30, 2018. A year later, it was amended to address rules of origin for autos, digital trade, IP, dairy and, who could forget, a sunset clause.
We can all do the math. The December 10, 2019 amendments set in motion a 16-year term for the agreement, with a mandatory review every six years. Which means we’ll see more of a requiem than a birthday bash next week when Mark Carney is in Washington to help kick off the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
But don’t bury CUSMA just yet.
Despite the U.S. President’s freeze on negotiations, officials from both countries are talking every day and laying the groundwork for what will be an intense 2026. Not many insiders seriously expect CUSMA to go away; they’re working on changes—modifications, enhancements, renovations, depending on your point of view—that will continue to change the fabric of continental commerce.
Here’s what’s worth noting about CUSMA and its first five years (as it didn’t come into effect until 2020):
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Canada-U.S. trade in goods is up about 23%;
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Canada remains the U.S.’s top customer, buying US$440 billion of goods and services in 2024, or 14% of America’s exports;
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U.S. direct investment in Canada hit $684 billion last year, up from about $400 billion;
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Canadian direct investment in the U.S. has doubled to $1.3 trillion;
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between 2020-2024, automakers announced nearly US$175 billion in new investment in North American production, as they reshored supply chains to meet those rules of origin.
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Canada-U.S. energy and agri-food trade has also surged in the 2020s, thanks in part to the certainty delivered by CUSMA. Energy is our biggest export to the U.S. — by far — worth $170 billion in 2024, up 50% from 2018.
That energy number may be the biggest message Carney takes to Washington. Not by coincidence, he locked arms this week with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith to state boldly to Canadians, and the world, that the country will be exporting a lot more oil to Asia. The U.S. government, and many U.S. shippers, would prefer that crude flow south. But now Carney, with Smith’s help, can exert more leverage in his Washington trade talks.
Canada always tried to keep energy (and water) off the main trade table, which is focussed more on manufacturing. But in this new age of energy security, it may be what Canada needs more than ever to bend the ball like Beckham.
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