Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Monday
TV: Sky Sports Main Event
The Monday night offering may not stand out at a quick glance of the Sky Bet Championship table, even more so after everyone else has played their fixtures, but it does have the potential to be far better than those standings suggest.
Birmingham were one of the sides with plenty of eyes on them before the season began. To simply call them champions of League One wouldn’t do justice to a 111-point season which set an EFL record.
The Blues have struggled for real consistency on their return to the second tier. At no point over the 17 games they’ve played have they been able to win more than two in a row.
But they’ve really switched it on at home in recent weeks.
Wins against Millwall, Norwich and Portsmouth have all been achieved by scoring four goals in each. Even with their quality throughout the squad, particularly in attack, those results still came as a surprise.
It’s down to the fact we’ve watched plenty of Birmingham possession but a lack of bite under Chris Davies. They only managed to hit that four-goal target on four occasions last season.
Signs of life though, the same of which can be said for Monday’s opponents Watford – although they weren’t exactly in ‘sacking form’ prior to the managerial switch.
Javi Gracia returned in typical Watford fashion and they’ve been a good watch in fairness. The defeat at runaway leaders Coventry the only time they’ve failed to be competitive on the scoreline under his guidance.
At odds-against prices across the board, I’m keeping it simple and taking OVER 2.5 GOALS here.
All five of Birmingham’s previous five in front of their own supporters have returned three or more goals – they’ve averaged 3.3 match goals per home game this season.
This may have only been a winner in one of Watford’s last four but BTTS has been a regular feature. That’s a slightly shorter price at 10/11 but I’m happy to side with the overs based mainly on Birmingham’s recent showings.
They have covered this line themselves. Watford have also scored three in recent games against Derby and Middlesbrough. It’s two attacks which can come to life in the right circumstances.
I’m hopeful the same applies on Monday night.
Odds correct at 1355 GMT (28/11/25)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
