The Southern Ocean is nearing a significant thermal surge that could drastically impact global warming. For many years, this ocean has absorbed over 90% of the Earth’s excess heat and a substantial portion of human-generated carbon dioxide. However, new research indicates that it may soon release this stored warmth, leading to unexpected climate consequences.
Potential Climatic ‘Burp’ from the Southern Ocean
Recent modeling published in AGU Advances suggests that the Southern Ocean could experience an abrupt release of its stored heat. This phenomenon, described as a climatic ‘burp,’ could trigger an increase in global temperatures, even if humanity successfully reduces emissions. Such a release might sustain warming for more than a century, potentially occurring after a period of global cooling.
Mechanism Behind the Surge
The scientific understanding of how this surge might occur is based on the ocean’s unique structure. As new sea ice forms, the surface becomes colder and saltier. The freezing process expels salt, increasing the density of the surface layer while keeping warmer water trapped below. Over time, this imbalance can destabilize the water column, leading to a deep convection event that propels the previously buried heat to the surface.
Impact on the Southern Hemisphere
The consequences of this heat release are expected to be most pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere. Countries located in the global south may face significant challenges due to this thermal pulse. While some carbon dioxide may be released, the primary concern remains the thermal impact of the event.
Future Climate Strategies
Though this scenario is projected rather than guaranteed, it offers vital insights into the long-term behavior of Earth’s climate. Climate researcher Kirsten Zickfeld highlights the uncertain responses of the planet to net-negative emissions, indicating potential surprises and feedback mechanisms. The model shows that while overall temperatures decline, the path to cooling may not be straightforward.
- The Southern Ocean has absorbed 90% of excess heat.
- New modeling suggests a possible abrupt heat release.
- This thermal surge could sustain warming for over a century.
- The main impact is thermal rather than chemical.
- Countries in the Southern Hemisphere will likely be most affected.
Researchers emphasize the importance of reducing fossil fuel use as a proactive measure. Ric Williams from the University of Liverpool advocates for minimizing carbon emissions from the outset rather than relying on negative emissions as a solution. As our understanding of the climate crisis evolves, strategies must adapt to address these emerging challenges.
