The Dallas Mavericks and Cooper Flagg split their back-to-back in Los Angeles over the weekend, as Flagg scored 35 points against the Los Angeles Clippers in a four-point win on Saturday night.
Now, the Mavs have another tough opponent on the schedule on Monday, as they remain on the road to play Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. Denver lost on Friday against the San Antonio Spurs, but it bounced back to beat the Phoenix Suns on Saturday on the second night of a back-to-back.
Even with Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun out, Denver is favored against this Dallas team that has struggled on offense to start the season. Anthony Davis is back for the Mavs, but he did not play in the second night of a back-to-back against the Clips.
Can Dallas hang around on the road in this matchup?
Here’s a look at the latest odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Western Conference clash.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
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Mavs Injury Report
Nuggets Injury Report
Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet
In today’s best NBA props column at SI Betting, I shared why Jokic could have a huge game against this Dallas frontcourt:
Jokic has been a triple-double machine this season, picking one up in 10 of his 19 games while averaging 28.9 points, 12.4 rebounds and 10.9 assists per game.
On Monday, he takes on the Mavericks, who actually have one of the better defenses in the NBA — fourth in defensive rating — but I still believe there are a ton of reasons to bet on Jokic to have a big game.
First off, Dallas is 28th in the NBA in opponent rebounds and 26th in rebounding percentage this season, partially due to the fact that it’s one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Jokic only has four games where he’s failed to grab double-digit boards this season, and he’s averaging a whopping 20.7 rebound chances per game.
When it comes to his assists, Jokic has 10 or more dimes in 13 of his 19 games, averaging 18.8 potential assists per game. Dallas does rank fifth in opponent assists per game this season, but Jokic is averaging nearly 11 per night.
Lastly, he’s scored over 10 points in every game this season, so that leg of the triple-double bet shouldn’t be of worry. With a few players banged up for Denver, Jokic is worth a look in this prop just about every night.
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Nuggets are a great bet to cover at home:
The Denver Nuggets are down Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun, but they’re double-digit favorites against the Dallas Mavericks on Monday night.
Dallas is going to be in trouble in the frontcourt against Nikola Jokic, as Daniel Gafford is listed as doubtful while Dereck Lively II has been ruled out for this game.
That sets up well for a Denver team that is 6-3 straight up at home and 12-7 against the spread overall this season. The Nuggets (14-5) have a net rating of +9.7 this season, which is the third-best mark in the NBA.
Meanwhile, Dallas is just 2-5 on the road and 6-15 overall, ranking 23rd in the league in net rating (-5.1). The Mavs simply aren’t going to be able to compete on offense in this game, as they are dead last in the NBA in offensive rating while the Nuggets are No. 1.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Denver wins in a blowout in this matchup.
Pick: Nuggets -11.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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