NFL Overreactions Week 13
USAT’s Prince Grimes gives a quick Thanksgiving recap, and breaks down the best games from NFL Week 13.
Sports Seriously
Mike Vrabel’s first season with the New England Patriots has been a rousing success to date.
The Patriots have already won 10 games under the veteran coach, more than they did during the 2023 and 2024 seasons combined. Meanwhile, Drake Maye has fit seamlessly into Josh McDaniels’ offense and has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate in his second NFL season.
New England is highly likely to make the playoffs given its strong season. The Patriots haven’t yet clinched a postseason berth in 2025, but they can make participating in their first postseason since 2021 all but a forgone conclusion if they extend their league-best winning streak to 10 games.
Here’s what to know about the Patriots’ playoff picture and their chances of winning the AFC East for the first time since Tom Brady’s final season in New England.
The Patriots have a greater than 99% chance to make the playoffs after their “Monday Night Football” win over the New York Giants in Week 13, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
A loss would’ve dropped their playoff probability to 95%.
The Patriots entered Week 13 in sole possession of first place in the AFC. They enter Monday’s game sharing that spot with the Denver Broncos, who beat the Washington Commanders 27-26 in overtime on “Sunday Night Football” and currently own the tiebreaker over the Patriots, given their winning percentage against common opponents.
A victory would allow the Patriots to enter their Week 14 bye in control of the conference’s No. 1 seed.
The Patriots have had one of the NFL’s easiest schedules this season. That won’t change down the stretch, as Tankathon ranked their remaining schedule as the second-easiest league-wide heading into Week 13.
New England does have two matchups remaining against teams currently in the playoff picture – the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills – but it also gets to face a couple of the league’s worst teams, the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.
Below is a full look at the Patriots’ remaining schedule for the 2025 NFL season:
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 16: at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 17: at New York Jets
- Week 18: vs. Miami Dolphins
The Patriots have a solid lead in the AFC East standings, but the Bills are lurking within striking distance.
Here’s how the AFC East standings look as Week 13 winds to a close:
- New England Patriots (11-2)
- Buffalo Bills (8-4)
- Miami Dolphins (5-7)
- New York Jets (3-9)
Buffalo won in Week 13 to put itself two games behind New England ahead of the Patriots vs. Giants game. However, the Bills have already lost head-to-head to the Patriots, and even if Buffalo can render that tiebreaker null when the teams meet in Week 15, New England sports a better divisional record (3-0) than Buffalo (2-2).
That puts the Patriots firmly in control of the divisional race, and also explains why the team’s playoff probability is so high.
- New England Patriots (11-2; AFC East leaders)
- Denver Broncos (10-2; AFC West leaders)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4, AFC South leaders)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-6; AFC North leaders)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-4, wild card No. 1)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-4; wild card No. 2)
- Buffalo Bills (8-4, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Houston Texans (7-5); Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6); Kansas City Chiefs (6-6); Miami Dolphins (5-7); Cincinnati Bengals (4-8); New York Jets (3-9); Cleveland Browns (3-9)
Eliminated: Las Vegas Raiders (2-10); Tennessee Titans (1-11)
