Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight standouts Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott will throw down this weekend (Sat., Dec. 6, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 323.
At this point, it feels inarguable that Cejudo mismanaged his career. He walked away at the top of the game as the reigning Bantamweight king and recent double champion in the hopes of securing a higher purse. Instead, he sat on the sidelines for three years of his prime. He’s competed three times since returning, and his overall performance has deteriorated a little more each time.
He’s not losing to scrubs, but Cejudo is looking very ordinary compared to his peak.
Talbott, conversely, is on the rise. He suffered the first loss of his pro career earlier this year to Raoni Barcelos (more on that here), but the young talent immediately rebounded and silenced the cries of “Fraud check!” with an excellent win over Felipe Lima. In less than six months between those bouts, Talbott showed clear improvement, and there’s plenty of time for the 27-year-old to keep growing.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JUNE 28: Payton Talbott of the United States kicks Felipe Lima of Brazil in their bantamweight bout during UFC 317 at T-Mobile Arena on June 28, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images) Getty Images
Cejudo vs. Talbott Betting Odds
- Henry Cejudo victory: +200
- Henry Cejudo via TKO/KO/DQ: +1000
- Henry Cejudo via submission: +3000
- Henry Cejudo via decision: +350
- Payton Talbott victory: -265
- Payton Talbott via TKO/KO/DQ: +275
- Payton Talbott via submission: +3000
- Payton Talbott via decision: +105
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – FEBRUARY 22: (R-L) Henry Cejudo punches Song Yadong of China in a bantamweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Climate Pledge Arena on February 22, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Cejudo adapted karate into his standup style, and everything changed. Suddenly, the wrestler was beaming his opponents with crisp straight right hands down the middle, landing heavy kicks, and moving with much more fluidity. The start to his Bantamweight run was phenomenal stuff, a dialed-in Olympian with elite skills to match his athleticism.
There are still clear advantages for Cejudo here. Obviously, he’s the much better wrestler. In addition, Talbott is defensively lax, relying more on his chin and size to avoid shots than anything else. Even considering the height and reach disadvantages, Cejudo will be able to crack Talbott with counter shots fairly often.
The question is how does Cejudo maintain those successes? He’s not great at holding opponents down, nor is he likely to knock out the massive young athlete. The risk is that Cejudo looks great for a round then ends up overwhelmed as fatigue sets in.
What’s the solution? I think Cejudo’s best bet — aside from lots and lots of roadwork while in training camp — is to make this as boring as possible. On the feet, he has to be very evasive and force Talbott to follow him around. When Cejudo does shoot, he has to lock his hands and try to stall out the action for as long as possible. If the crowd is booing, Cejudo is likely winning the fight at a pace he can maintain.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Talbott is a destroyer. He has the confidence of a fighter who’s never been knocked out nor even felt fatigue, and Talbott wields that forward momentum like a cleaver. He bullies his opponents, pressing relentlessly with a varied mix of punches, kicks and close quarters violence.
In this bout, Talbott has to make Cejudo work. It doesn’t really matter if he’s getting taken down or clipped, not when he can be confident the tide will eventually turn. Given his size and output advantages, Talbott can win this fight simply by refusing Cejudo the chance to recover.
“Triple C” cannot match his pace for long.
On the feet, Talbott should be pressing. Ideally, he’ll be throwing combinations and include some body punches to make the level change more difficult. Really, Talbott should be hitting whatever target is available, and I’d love to see him ripping kicks into the much shorter man. Front snap kicks could be a great weapon, but any round kick thrown with full force into the open side will be difficult for Cejudo to counter.
On the canvas, Talbott has to rely on athleticism and scrambling ability. Cejudo is great at scoring takedowns, not doing anything with them. If Talbott is rolling and flipping around — forcing Cejudo to keep up with him — it will sap on the gas tank.
Once Cejudo loses a bit of gas, he’s in for a world of hurt. To win the fight, Talbott just has to push him to that point as quickly as possible.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JUNE 28: Payton Talbott reacts to the end of a round in a bantamweight bout during the UFC 317 event at T-Mobile Arena on June 28, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Cejudo vs. Talbott Prediction
I have a really difficult time seeing a path to victory for Cejudo. He never developed much of a top game, so the threat of his world-class wrestling — which has certainly declined in the 17 years since he won Olympic gold — isn’t there. We’re not talking about Islam Makhachev or Khamzat Chimaev here — when’s the last time Cejudo submitted anyone from top position? Or even landed a heavy series of elbows? He just doesn’t really do anything from top unless his opponent is dead tired (i.e. Marlon Moraes).
Talbott doesn’t have to play it conservative on bottom. When taken down, he can just pop back up and force Cejudo to let him go or exhausting himself hanging on. On the feet, Cejudo may be the cleaner boxer, but he’s not going to like eating Talbott strikes en mass.
I expect a good opening five from Cejudo, then it all falls apart.
Prediction: Talbott via decision
BANTAMWEIGHT TITLE REMATCH! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Dec. 6, 2025, with an explosive (and final) ESPN+-streamed UFC 323 fight card. In UFC 323’s main event, relentless Georgian Bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, defends his belt against Russian striking phenom and former 135-pound roost-ruler, Petr Yan, in a high-stakes rematch that could reshape the 135-pound division. In UFC 323’s co-headliner, Brazilian Flyweight kingpin, Alexandre Pantoja, battles rising challenger, Joshua Van, for the 125-pound crown in a clash blending elite grappling and knockout power. All that and SO MUCH MORE!!!
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