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The Green Surge, a pipedream in 2015, now looks very real under Zack Polanski. The Green Party has seen the biggest swing in support of any party over the last two months. It’s not leading the polls – that mantle is Reform’s – but there’s no doubting that party has become a serious player.
The Green Party’s next move, however, is tough to plot. The party is winning support disproportionately from already active voters. Reform are turning out historic non-voters. That is why the Greens win council by-elections where turnout is either drifting downwards or staying the same. Where, in such circumstances, to target?
Locally, Green strategists have admitted to me it’s tough for them to work out where they can win. They’re short of active activists, even though in West Cheshire their membership totals have almost quadrupled (from 200 to 750) in the past year. When it comes to council seats, their strategy is simple. If a party is seen to be paying a seat little attention in manpower or activity, they fill the void. They pour in all their resources. The Greens target one seat, and win it.
That’s the old way. That’s what a party would do on 5 per cent of the vote. To poll 15 per cent, however, needs something new. The Greens can aim higher, and for parliamentary seats, the party needs to know now where in Britain could be most receptive to them.
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Britain Predicts was the most accurate forecast model of the last general election. It doesn’t mean it will be in the next one, but it’s worth looking at for a potential glimpse into the future. I’ve been tinkering with the model, and today I’m publishing some preliminary findings on the seats the Greens, on current polling, are in pole position to win.
If an election were held today, the Greens would win 23 seats. Their gains would be almost exclusively urban. North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley would become exception than rule. Gains in Manchester (Rusholme and Withington), Leeds (Headingly, and South), Hackney (South and Shoreditch), Walthamstow, Liverpool (Riverside, a real eye-opener if borne out) blot the top-end of the spreadsheet.
Those are outright wins. But there are also close shaves. The Greens would come second in 31 seats, and less than 10pts behind the winning party in almost 30.
These are seats that on paper are most favourable to a Green surge. And they are the seats the Greens should target next.
Polling results like this can become the new normal. Polls are not election results, they’re not final, but persistent public support makes voters feel more comfortable switching to a new party come election time. Already we are a nation of swingers with less loyalty than our ancestors. The Greens have potential. Whether they target these seats effectively remains to be seen.
[Further reading: Labour understands the public on immigration]
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