The RB1 position gets all the glory in Fantasy Football, but the RB2 position often pays the bills. Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, and whoever else — good on you for finding them. You must fill out your roster and exceed expectations across the board. Once you do that, you are golden. RB2’s are also never must-start and so it is important to analyze the week-to-week upside of your options. Today, we will discuss Devin Neal vs David Montgomery.
The Case for Devin Neal
Fantasy Sports On SI Week 14 Ranking: RB27
Neal filled in for Kamara last week as the RB1. In this game, Neal had 14 Attempts (54% Share), 47 Yards, (3.4 Yards per Carry), and 47 Yards. This came against the 15th ranked Dolphins Run Stop.
To compare, the Saints, as a team, are rushing for (3.6) Yards per Carry. They only have (3) Rushing Touchdowns on the season. Unfortunately for Neal, this is the going rate. Volume may pay, but at lacking upside.
Kamara is the RB41 in Fantasy Football, so we can use that to help value Neal. He will catch the ball around as much as Kamara generally does, so Neal should be valued around the same — Flex with RB2 upside.
The Saints will take on the Buccaneers this Sunday. The Buccaneers are 6th in Rushing Yards Allowed, but 23rd versus Running Backs. Their weakness has been in their Receiving Defense vs Running Backs. The Buccaneers are far-worst in Receiving Yards Allowed to Running Backs — 56.8 Yards per Game. This bodes well for Neal.
The Case for David Montgomery
Fantasy Sports On SI Week 14 Ranking: RB31
Montgomery has played 12 Games this season. He has 123 Attempts (28% Share), 543 Yards (4.3 Yards per Attempt), and 6 Touchdowns. Montgomery is the RB22 in Fantasy Football, marking him as a low-end RB2.
Dan Campbell recently took over play-calling for the Lions. He has stated that he wishes to get Montgomery more involved, but that has not quite happened. Montgomery has single-digit rushing attempts in each of his last three games. Gibbs is out-rushing Montgomery well-over 2-to-1.
The Lions will be facing the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. The Cowboys are 20th in Rushing Yards Allowed and 19th versus Running Backs. Now that they added Quinnen Williams, they are an average unit, if not a tad better than average.
The Lions are playing a full week of rest, as are the Cowboys. This game will provide a moderate outlook for Montgomery.
Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Devin Neal vs David Montgomery
In theory, Neal will have a larger share of his offensive touches. However, his team is far worse than the Lions. We can see Neal have 60% of Attempts and end up with 10-12 Attempts. We can see Montgomery have 30-40% of Attempts and have the same. Not to mention, Montgomery is averaging around (1) Yards per Attempts better than Neal.
When all is evened out, these players rate quite similarly this week. I would prefer Montgomery’s proven workload in a role that may also net him more trustworthy Red Zone Touches.
Start David Montgomery for safer upside on a much better offense.
