Lando Norris is favourite to win his maiden Formula 1 world title but Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri can steal the championship at this weekend’s season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, so how can all three drivers do it?
F1 Drivers’ Championship
F1 Drivers’ Championship – top three
Driver
Team
Points
1) Lando Norris
McLaren
408
2) Max Verstappen
Red Bull
396
3) Oscar Piastri
McLaren
392
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After strategy drama in Qatar, Norris is 12 points ahead of Verstappen and 16 points in front of McLaren team-mate Piastri with 25 points for a win in Sunday’s race at the Yas Marina Circuit.
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How Norris can win the title
For Norris, the equation is simple – if he is on the podium in Abu Dhabi, he is world champion no matter what his title rivals do.
Should the British driver finish fourth though, like he did in Qatar, he would need Verstappen to not win the race.
If Norris retires, or fails to score any points, he would need Verstappen to be outside of the podium places and Piastri in third or lower.
Norris will be world champion if the following happens….
Lando Norris
Max Verstappen
Oscar Piastri
1st
Does not matter
Does not matter
2nd
Does not matter
Does not matter
3rd
Does not matter
Does not matter
4th
2nd or lower
Does not matter
5th
2nd or lower
Does not matter
6th
2nd or lower
2nd or lower
7th
2nd or lower
2nd or lower
8th
3rd or lower
2nd or lower
9th
4th or lower
2nd or lower
10th
4th or lower
3rd or lower
11th or lower
4th or lower
3rd or lower
How Verstappen can win the title
Verstappen must be on the podium to have any chance of winning a record-equalling fifth consecutive drivers’ title – an accolade held by Michael Schumacher during his time at Ferrari.
The Dutchman, who won a controversial title decider in 2021 against Lewis Hamilton, realistically needs to win and hope Norris is not on the podium.
Verstappen will be world champion if the following happens….
Max Verstappen
Lando Norris
Oscar Piastri
1st
4th or lower
Does not matter
2nd
8th or lower
3rd or lower
3rd
9th or lower
2nd or lower
How Piastri can win the title
Piastri must finish in the top two to have any chance of claiming a first world title. Even with victory though, he needs team-mate Norris to be sixth or lower.
Should Piastri finish second, the Australian would rely on Norris being 10th or lower plus Verstappen not being on the podium.
Piastri will be world champion if the following happens….
Oscar Piastri
Lando Norris
Max Verstappen
1st
6th or lower
Does not matter
2nd
10th or lower
4th or lower
What happens if the top two are tied on points?
This could happen of course. For example, if Piastri does not win, Verstappen finishes second and Norris is seventh – the latter two would be tied on 414 points.
We would then go to countback which means who has the most number of wins in 2025. Remarkably, Norris, Verstappen and Piastri all have seven victories this season.
That means we then look at second places and Norris is ahead here with eight second places compared to Verstappen on six (including the one in Abu Dhabi in this scenario), while Piastri has four.
In any scenario where Norris is tied with his title rivals, he will come out on top.
It is impossible for Verstappen and Piastri to be tied on points if they are the top two in the championship.
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Craig Slater revisits the defining moments of a dramatic 2025 F1 season, analysing how they set the stage for the finale as the championship heads into the Qatar Grand Prix
How many times has the championship leader not won?
This will be the 32nd occasion the F1 Drivers’ Championship has gone down to the last race in the sport’s 75-year history.
However, only nine of those times has seen the championship leader going into that race not win the title – Sebastian Vettel in 2010 was the last driver to do that when he overturned a 15-point deficit to Fernando Alonso, having been third in the standings too.
When the championship lead has been overturned
- 1950 – Giuseppe Farina
- 1964 – John Surtees
- 1976 – James Hunt
- 1981 – Nelson Piquet
- 1983 – Nelson Piquet
- 1986 – Alain Prost
- 1997 – Jacques Villeneuve
- 2007 – Kimi Raikkonen
- 2010 – Sebastian Vettel
When is the championship trophy given?
The Drivers’ Championship is actually handed out at the FIA Prize Gala, rather than the season-finale in Abu Dhabi. That’s the case with the Constructors’ Championship too, which was won by McLaren in October’s Singapore Grand Prix.
This year’s FIA Prize Gala takes place in Tashkent, Uzbekistan on December 12.
Max Verstappen with the Drivers’ Championship trophy in 2024
The 2025 Formula 1 season concludes with the title-deciding Abu Dhabi Grand Prix live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – no contract, cancel anytime
