We look at Villa’s excellent form and the reasons why they could be genuine contenders for this season’s crown
Football writer Ben Bloom looks at if Unai Emery’s side are genuine title contenders as they prepare to welcome Premier League leaders Arsenal with the chance to move within three points of the Gunners.
Can Aston Villa be title contenders? It is a staggering question to ask given their atrocious start to a season that saw them fail to win any of their opening five games, not even managing to score in the first four of them.
But Unai Emery’s side have been a different beast since. Wednesday night’s comeback triumph from 2-0 down to beat Brighton & Hove Albion 4-3 took their current winning streak to six games in all competitions.
In mid-September, they languished in 19th. Now, courtesy of eight wins in nine Premier League outings, they sit third despite effectively giving the entire league a month’s head start.
Which brings us to Saturday. League leaders Arsenal have been imperious this season, losing just once and topping both Premier League and UEFA Champions League tables. But their lunchtime visit to Villa Park means a trip to perhaps the toughest ground in the country, given Villa’s strong home form over the past year.
Another Villa victory – to extend their current eight-game winning streak at home – would see Emery’s side move just three points behind Arsenal: striking distance to mount a title challenge.
A difficult summer
Of course, Villa have been here before. Almost exactly this time two years ago, the same question was being asked of Villa’s potential title credentials. Successive 1-0 victories at home over Manchester City and Arsenal saw Emery’s team sit within touching distance of a league summit they would scale just before Christmas if they beat Sheffield United.
But they did not. A stoppage-time equaliser from loanee Nicolo Zaniolo salvaged a point for Villa, the opportunity was missed and thoughts of fighting for the title soon disappeared as a poor second half of the campaign saw them fade to fourth.
During a turbulent summer, there was little indication that this season would see Villa anywhere near top spot again.
Following the blow of narrowly missing Champions League qualification on goal difference on the final day of last season, the club were limited in their transfer dealings.
Incomings were in short supply, academy product Jacob Ramsey was sold to Newcastle United to provide funds, Emiliano Martinez was reportedly close to a move to Manchester United that failed to materialise, and the club’s sporting director Monchi soon departed.
The travails of the first month of the campaign seemed a natural continuation.
Fortress Villa Park
The recent dramatic upturn has stemmed from the resumption of Villa’s incomparably strong home form.
Since losing this same fixture against Arsenal in August last season, Villa have lost just once in their last 25 Premier League home games. That solitary defeat was delivered by Crystal Palace this August, after which they have won every home game.
“We feel comfortable and strong here,” said Emery last week, when asked about Villa’s home form. “The fans transmit positive energy and want us to be together – it helps us to connect with the supporters. It’s like our fortress.”
Indeed, no club in Europe’s top five leagues have lost as few of their last 30 games across all competitions as Villa.
Fewest home defeats in Europe, last 30 matches
Team
Defeats
Aston Villa
1
Napoli
2
Atletico Madrid
2
Juventus
3
Bayern Munich
3
Finding a way
Yet, according to many respected observers, Villa have not even been particularly good this season. Various metrics support such an argument but, crucially, they are continually finding ways to win.
Primary among them has been their long-range shooting. Of the 20 Premier League goals they have scored this season, nine have come from outside the penalty area – a league-high 45 per cent.
Highest share of long-range goals
Team
Goals
Goals outside box
% outside
Aston Villa
20
9
45.0
Bournemouth
21
7
33.3
West Ham
16
4
25.0
Fulham
19
4
21.1
Man Utd
22
4
18.2
Brighton
24
4
16.7
In Premier League history, no club have ever finished the season with more than 40 per cent of their goals coming from outside the penalty area.
On the one hand, it suggests a team yet to fully find their attacking fluency, reliant instead on trying their luck from distance. But Emery has suggested the approach is no accident.
“They are practising a lot every training session and shooting like that,” he said last week.
The long-range reliance explains the vast discrepancy between Villa’s expected results and their actual results. While they currently sit third in the table, having scored 20 times, their Expected Goals (xG) total of 14.3 is higher than only five clubs (Sunderland, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United and Burnley).
Given such a disparity, a table of expected points shows just how much Villa are punching above their weight.
Premier League teams, expected points v actual points
Team
Expected points
Actual points
Expected position
Actual position
Arsenal
31.1
33
1
1
Man City
27.0
28
2
2
Liverpool
23.7
22
3
9
Crystal Palace
23.0
23
4
5
Man Utd
22.1
22
5
8
Chelsea
21.9
24
6
4
Brentford
21.8
19
7
13
Newcastle
21.5
19
8
12
Brighton
21.4
22
9
7
Leeds
20.3
14
10
17
Bournemouth
20.0
19
11
14
Everton
17.9
21
12
10
Nott’m Forest
16.4
15
13
16
Fulham
16.3
17
14
15
Wolves
15.5
2
15
20
Aston Villa
15.1
27
16
3
Spurs
15.0
19
17
11
West Ham
14.6
12
18
18
Sunderland
14.6
23
19
6
Burnley
7.8
10
20
19
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
Never say die
Regardless, Villa are producing wins. Frequently, they are doing so after Emery has masterminded a way back into matches. As occurred again at Brighton on Wednesday night, Villa conceded first, but still managed to take points from the game – something they have done better than any other Premier League club this season.
Premier League teams, record after conceding first
Team
Goals
Won
Drawn
Lost
PPG*
Villa
7
4
0
3
1.71
Brighton
7
3
1
3
1.43
Sunderland
8
3
2
3
1.38
Arsenal
5
1
3
1
1.20
Chelsea
4
1
1
2
1.00
West Ham
11
2
2
7
0.73
Wolves
11
0
0
11
0.00
*PPG = points per game
The key architect behind that Brighton win was Ollie Watkins, who had endured a struggling season to that point. The England striker was on the longest goal drought of his Villa career before the trip to the Amex Stadium, failing to score in 11 appearances, and managing only two goals in 24 games across all competitions.
But, having lost his starting spot for last weekend’s 1-0 win against Wolves, Watkins seized his chance on a return to Villa’s side, scoring twice against Brighton as the visitors came from behind to triumph.
Watch: Watkins’ brace v Brighton
Notably, all four of Villa’s goals came from inside the 18-yard box, with Watkins’ return to form timely.
“It’s the best feeling to score a goal and that’s my job,” said Watkins. “It’s been a while without that feeling. It’s been a tricky period in my career. I’ve not had this since the manager came in, but I kept working hard and you get your rewards.”
Familiar opposition
The Brighton win was Unai Emery’s 62nd Premier League victory in charge of Villa, overtaking John Gregory and Martin O’Neill to move top of the club’s all-time managerial pile in the competition.
Already revered in his native Spain, Emery’s brilliant work at Villa Park has restored a reputation in England that suffered during a tricky 18-month stint as Arsenal manager from May 2018.
Since his departure from north London, Emery has come up against Arsenal seven times (with Villarreal and Aston Villa), losing just twice. Villa’s 2-0 away win in April 2024 delivered a major blow to Arsenal’s title aspirations that season, while they again dented the hosts’ silverware hopes with a 2-2 draw at Emirates Stadium this January.
Villa’s recent exploits have seen Emery nominated for the Premier League’s Barclays Manager of the Month award for November, having also made the October shortlist.
But also on the list is Mikel Arteta, his successor at Arsenal. The man in the visitors’ dugout on Saturday has seen his side lose just one of their last 21 Premier League away games (against Liverpool in August), although they face a number of potential injury absentees, with Gabriel and Kai Havertz out, and William Saliba, Cristhian Mosquera, Leandro Trossard and Declan Rice all doubts.
Asked on Friday whether he sees Villa as a title challenger, Arteta replied: “Look where they are already. If they continue doing what they have been doing then any team in that position has chances, for sure.”
Emery, who described Arsenal as “favourites to win the [Premier League] trophy”, was notably less eager to commit.
“The future is unpredictable,” he said. “We must focus on each match, and tomorrow. Of course, if we are winning, we can be more positive for the next matches. If we are not winning, we are not changing nothing. But our race is each match, and it’s good sometimes to remind ourselves of our experiences before.
“Two months ago, we were in the bottom. Now, we are in the top. Maybe, in two months, we can again come back going down.”
Before the end of the year, Emery’s side will face Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal again. The next few weeks will provide plenty of answers.
