Louisville Cardinals (7-1) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (7-1)
CareSource Invitational Indianapolis – Supporting Mental Health
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse: Indianapolis, Ind.
Announcers: Tom McCarthy (play-by-play), Clark Kellogg (analysis) and Robbie Hummel (analysis)
Favorite: Louisville by 4.5
Series: Indiana leads, 12-10
Last Meeting: Louisville won 89-61 on Nov. 27, 2024 in the quarterfinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis in Paradise Island, Bahamas
Projected Starting Lineups:
- G Mikel Brown Jr. (6-5, 190, Fr.)
- G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
- G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
- F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
- C Sananda Fru (6-11, 245, Jr.)
- G Conor Enright (6-1, 180, Sr.)
- G Tayton Conerway (6-3, 190, Sr.)
- G Lamar Wilkerson (6-6, 205, Sr.)
- F Tucker DeVries (6-7, 235, Sr.)
- F Reed Bailey (6-10, 230, Sr.)
Indiana’s Season to Date:
First-year head coach Darian DeVries — who Louisville faced last season at West Virginia in the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis — is the latest in an increasingly long line of names tasked with returning Indiana to status among the college basketball elite. It’s off to a solid start.
The Hoosiers began the year 7-0 with a pair of impressive blowout victories against Marquette and Kansas State. Like Louisville, they hit their first snag on Wednesday night in the form of a 73-64 road loss to a not-so-great Minnesota squad.
DeVries, who spent six highly successful seasons at Drake before nearly taking WVU to the tournament in his first and only season in Morgantown, was known as more of an offensive-minded coach during his time with the Bulldogs. Despite that, his Mountaineer team last season and his Hoosier squad so far this year have stronger numbers on the defensive end.
His offensive style is similar to Louisville’s, just far more deliberate. Indiana doesn’t play at a breakneck pace — only one of DeVries’ teams (2018-19 Drake) has ever ranked in the nation’s top 100 in tempo — but his teams take care of the ball and focus on getting high quality shots either at the rim or from behind the three-point line.
Almost half of Indiana’s shots (46.8 percent) come from behind the three-point line, where the Hoosiers are shooting 36.8 percent as a team, 68th-best in the country. Only 11 teams in Division-I turn the ball over at a lower rate than IU does, and while the team doesn’t get to the stripe a ton (more than most DeVries teams in the past have) they shoot free-throws at a 75.0 percent clip collectively.
But it’s the outside shot that has dictated Indiana’s overall play more times than not through the first month of the season. IU has made at least 10 three-pointers in five games this season. In those games, the Hoosiers are 5-0 and averaging 97.0 points per outing. In the three games where they’ve made fewer than 10 threes, IU is 2-1 and averaging 68.7 points.
Throughout DeVries’ coaching career, his teams have never ranked below 155th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Last season’s West Virginia team ranked 15th in that category, and Indiana currently sits at No. 17. He’s a pack line coach, and his teams focus on forcing their opponents to use lots of the shot and take low percentage shots from the outside. Only 14 teams have forced their opponents to attempt more threes than Indiana, and opponents are shooting just 30.8 percent from deep against the Hoosiers.
As was the case when Louisville faced a DeVries team around this time last year, the coach’s son, Tucker DeVries (16.8 ppg), will be the most dangerous opposing player on the floor. The two-time conference Player of the Year will once again be one of the best offensive players the Cardinals will have to defend all season. At 6’7 with a solid frame, DeVries has tremendous range and is an accurate shooter from deep both off the bounce and coming off of screens. He’s a capable shot-creator himself and playmaker for others, but his defense against elite competition is suspect. DeVries enters the weekend as college basketball’s active leader in career points, and ranks fifth in career made three-pointers.
Sam Houston State transfer Lamar Wilkerson (16.4 ppg) has had little trouble making the jump to power conference basketball. At 6’6 and 205 lbs., Wilkerson has the size and physicality to beat guys off the dribble when they overextend, but three-point shooting has always been his bread and butter. He’s averaging a whopping 7.1 three-point attempts per game (down slightly from 7.7 a year ago) and is hitting 40.4 percent of them. It should come as no surprise that Pat Kelsey was among Wilkerson’s many suitors last offseason.
Wilkerson comes into Saturday’s game slumping a little bit (just 3-for-14 from deep over the last two games), so expect him to go nuts from three in this one.
Tayton Conerway (12.6 ppg), a PG transfer from Troy, hasn’t shot the ball well this season (20.7 percent from three), but is the straw that stirs the drink for DeVries. Not only is he averaging 4.9 assists against 2.6 turnovers per game, but he is the type of player who will welcome the challenge of defending Mikel Brown Jr. on Saturday. Conerway is averaging 2.0 steals per game, and despite giving up a couple of inches in height to Brown, he’ll give the freshman superstar all he can handle.
Davidson transfer Reed Bailey (10.6 ppg/4.8 rpg) and Florida transfer Sam Alexis (10.5 ppg/6.0 rpg) are both solid frontcourt players, but neither possesses the combination of size and athleticism that gave Louisville fits on Arkansas.
Put simply, Louisville needs to be the aggressor in this one. Minnesota bullied Indiana on Wednesday night in a way that frustrated the Hoosiers from the opening tip through the final whistle. If the Cards don’t bring the fight right out of the gate, they could find themselves in another first half hole that proves too difficult to claw out of.
—Louisville has won five of its last seven games against Indiana.
—Louisville is 1-1 in games against top 25 opponents so far this season. Saturday will be IU’s first game this year against a ranked foe.
—Louisville has hit the 100-point mark four times in a season for the first time since 1989-90.
—Indiana has made at least 10 three-pointers in five games this season. In those games, the Hoosiers are 5-0 and averaging 97.0 points per outing. In the three games where they’ve made fewer than 10 threes, IU is 2-1 and averaging 68.7 points.
—Opposing teams are shooting 40.5 percent from inside the three-point line against the Hoosiers this season, the fourth-lowest mark across college basketball.
—Indiana doesn’t have a mascot. Isn’t that weird? Have you ever thought about that?
—Louisville is 4-4 in games against Indiana played at neutral sites.
—Louisville has a 265-85 record against non-conference opponents over the last 24 seasons (includes postseason).
—Louisville is 34-0 under head coach Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play.
—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 1-0 in games against Indiana in his career.
—Indiana head coach Darian DeVries is 0-1 in games against Louisville in his career.
—Indiana has held six straight opponents to under 75 points, the longest streak for a Hoosier defense since the 2022-23 season (11 straight games from Jan. 14 to Feb. 18). Only one team (77 points from Marquette) has topped 75 points on IU this season.
—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 10 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Louisville is 120-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 82, Indiana 78
