College Football Playoff scenarios: How to root for controversy and chaos on championship weekend – The Athletic
The Athletic has live coverage of the 2025 SEC Championship between Alabama and Georgia and the 2025 Big Ten Championship between Indiana and Ohio State.
Chaos has yet to rain down on the College Football Playoff race. Will we finally get some on the last weekend of the season?
We have nine conference championship games on Friday and Saturday, but realistically, only two will affect which bubble teams do or do not get in: the Big 12 (BYU-Texas Tech) and the SEC (Alabama-Georgia). Three others — the ACC (Duke-Virginia), American (North Texas-Tulane) and Sun Belt (Troy-James Madison) — will determine the final two automatic qualifier (AQ) berths.
We’ll get to those in a minute. But first, let’s predict what the field will look like based on the four possible permutations involving the Big 12 and SEC games. Most pressingly, how do they affect four schools on either side of the cut line: No. 9 Alabama (10-2), No. 10 Notre Dame (10-2), No. 11 BYU (11-1) and No. 12 Miami (10-2)?
Texas Tech beats BYU, Alabama beats Georgia
This combo officially eliminates BYU, which is already on the outside looking in. And that creates an opening for Miami. The Canes would now be just one spot behind the Irish. The committee has always said that head-to-head is a tiebreaker when teams are “close.” It doesn’t get any closer than that.
“The head-to-head is one data point that the committee will use,” committee chairman Hunter Yurachek said Tuesday night. “It’s obviously easier to use that data point when the teams are back-to-back as opposed to when they’re separated by a team or two or three, as has been the case.”
Meanwhile, Alabama would obviously move up from No. 9 with a second win this season over Georgia and an SEC championship. The best guess here is the Tide would move into the top four and earn a bye.
CFP RankTeam
1
Ohio State-Indiana winner (13-0)
2
Ohio State-Indiana loser (12-1)
3
Texas Tech (12-1)
4
Alabama (11-2)
5
Georgia (11-2)
6
Oregon (11-1)
7
Ole Miss (11-1)
8
Texas A&M (11-1)
9
Oklahoma (10-2)
10
Miami (10-2)
11
Notre Dame (10-2)
12
BYU (11-2)
Texas Tech beats BYU, Georgia beats Alabama
Once again, BYU is out. But is Alabama out too? And if so, is Notre Dame as well?
It may depend on how much Alabama loses by. If it’s a close game, the Tide either stay where they are or only drop one spot, in which case there’s still separation between Notre Dame and Miami. But what if Georgia wins 28-10? Would the committee dare drop Alabama out? If so, then Notre Dame and Miami both make it.
But I’m going with the first scenario.
CFP rankTeam
1
Ohio State-Indiana winner (13-0)
2
Georgia (12-1)
3
Ohio State-Indiana loser (12-1)
4
Texas Tech (12-1)
5
Oregon (11-1)
6
Ole Miss (11-1)
7
Texas A&M (11-1)
8
Oklahoma (10-2)
9
Notre Dame (10-2)
10
Alabama (10-3)
11
Miami (10-2)
12
BYU (11-2)
BYU beats Texas Tech, Alabama beats Georgia
This one seems simple. BYU would earn an automatic berth, but Texas Tech is unlikely to fall out of the field. And Alabama is safely in as well. The ND-Miami debate becomes moot.
CFP rankTeam
1
Ohio State-Indiana winner (13-0)
2
Ohio State-Indiana loser (12-1)
3
Alabama (11-2)
4
Georgia (11-2)
5
Oregon (11-1)
6
BYU (12-1)
7
Texas Tech (11-2)
8
Ole Miss (11-1)
9
Texas A&M (11-1)
10
Oklahoma (10-2)
11
Miami (10-2)
12
Notre Dame (10-2)
BYU beats Texas Tech, Georgia beats Alabama
Both Miami and Notre Dame get bounced.
CFP rankTeam
1
Ohio State-Indiana winner (13-0)
2
Georgia (12-1)
3
Ohio State-Indiana loser (12-1)
4
Oregon (11-1)
5
BYU (12-1)
6
Texas Tech (11-2)
7
Ole Miss (11-1)
8
Texas A&M (11-1)
9
Oklahoma (10-2)
10
Alabama (10-3)
11
Miami (10-2)
12
Notre Dame (10-2)
All told, Notre Dame, winner of 10 in a row in largely dominant fashion, only makes the field in one of the four scenarios. But so does Miami. The Irish need to root for Georgia. The Canes need to root for Alabama. And both need to root against BYU.
Now, on to those other championship games, and the question everyone has been asking: Will the ACC get shut out if 7-5 Duke upsets 10-2 Virginia?
If the No. 17 Cavaliers win, it’s pretty straightforward: They’ll get the fourth AQ bid and the No. 11 seed, while the winner in the American between No. 20 Tulane (10-2) and No. 24 North Texas (11-1) will get the fifth AQ bid and the No. 12 seed.
If Duke wins, expect the American champ to move up to the No. 11 seed. Then the fifth and final automatic berth will depend on whether unranked Duke jumps above No. 25 James Madison (11-1), a 23-point favorite over Troy (8-4) in the Sun Belt title game.
Here’s their resume comparison (as of Dec. 3). The first three categories are from The Athletic’s Austin Mock’s ratings.
CategoryJMUDuke
Overall rating
23
49
Strength of record
25
65
Strength of schedule
118
66
Top 25 (Sagarin)
0-0
0-0
Top 50 (Sagarin)
0-1
1-3
Duke played tougher competition (obviously), but the overall ratings and strength of record indicate JMU’s 11-1 finish against its schedule was considerably more impressive than Duke’s 7-5 against its harder schedule. Beating a top-25 Virginia team would close the gap, but probably not by enough.
And consider this: Duke did not even appear in the Others Receiving Votes section of this week’s AP poll. Which means it was no better than No. 42. Given the committee’s rankings are not that different than AP’s, here’s guessing the Blue Devils wouldn’t jump 17 spots for beating Virginia.
The best guess here is that Duke gets shut out.
Having deduced all that, here’s what the final bracket might look like if the Vegas favorites win every conference title game except in the ACC.
I.e., the ACC’s worst nightmare.
