We’ve reached the end of our College Football Playoff eliminator. And, as will usually happen in the 12-team Playoff era, we don’t have a clear-cut 12 teams. We have ten, and three bubble teams remain in contention for the final two spots.
Alabama, Miami (FL), and Notre Dame are all on the Playoff bubble. Alabama has the best wins, but also has by far the worst two losses of any of those teams. (One of those losses is bad because it was to a bad Florida State team; the other is bad because of the margin and nature of the game.) The advanced metrics say Notre Dame is the best team of these three. And Miami has a strong argument over both––a head-to-head win over Notre Dame, and a common opponent advantage against Alabama (Miami beat Florida State). So, who will get in? That’s up to the selection committee. From our eliminator’s perspective, all three earned their bubble status, and none are eliminated.
Duke may have won the ACC, but their resume is nowhere near good enough to stay near James Madison. The Blue Devils needed the Dukes to lose to have a chance. James Madison won, so Duke is out of the Playoff. As is Virginia. Which means that if Miami is the team left out from the bubble, the ACC could get zero teams in the Playoff this year.
Let’s give a quick table of the teams still alive in the Playoff race. (Of the two independents and two Pac-12 teams, only Notre Dame is still in contention.)
AmericanNorth Texas, TulaneACCDuke, Miami, VirginiaBig TenIndiana, Ohio State, OregonBig 12BYU, Texas TechConference-USANoneMACNoneMountain WestUNLVSECAlabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Texas A&MSun BeltJames Madison
In addition to this weekly article, I couned down the teams in this thread on X (formerly Twitter). I also had a second thread detailing which teams (using the same principles) are out of contention for the seven at-large spots.
Week 15 College Football Playoff Eliminator
12 teams entered Week 15 with a chance of making the College Football Playoff if they win out, and six entered as locks. We eliminated four more in Week 15 and locked four more teams into the Playoff, leaving three still in contention for the final two spots.
James MadisonGuaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football PlayoffOklahomaGuaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football PlayoffTexas TechGuaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football PlayoffTulaneGuaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football PlayoffBYULost conference championship game, won’t receive at-large bidNorth TexasLost conference championship game, won’t receive at-large bidUNLVLost conference championship game, won’t receive at-large bidVirginiaLost conference championship game, won’t receive at-large bid
Previous Weeks
Week 14
GeorgiaGuaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football PlayoffOle MissGuaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football PlayoffOregonGuaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football PlayoffArizona StateEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidGeorgia TechEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidMichiganEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidNavyEliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidNew MexicoEliminated from MWC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidPittEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidSan Diego StateEliminated from MWC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidSMUEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidSouth FloridaEliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidTexasCommittee ranking indicates outside at-large pictureUtahCommittee ranking indicates outside at-large pictureVanderbiltCommittee ranking indicates outside at-large picture
Week 13
Ohio StateGuaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football PlayoffTexas A&MGuaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football PlayoffArizonaEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidCincinnatiEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidEast CarolinaFour losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championFresno StateFour losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championHawaiiFour losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championHoustonEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidMemphisEliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidTempleEliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidUSCEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidUTSAEliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidWestern KentuckyThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion
Week 12
IndianaGuaranteed a spot in the 2025 College Football PlayoffArmyEliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidBaylorEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidBoise StateFour losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championCalEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidDukeEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidFlorida AtlanticEliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidIllinoisEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidIowaEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidKansas StateEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidKennesaw StateThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championLouisvilleEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidMinnesotaEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidNebraskaEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidNorth CarolinaEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidN.C. StateEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidSouthern MissThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championTCUEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidUCLAEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidUtah StateFive losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championVirginia TechEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidWake ForestEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidWashingtonEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid
Week 11:
FloridaEliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidKansasEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidLSUEliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidMissouriEliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidNorthwesternEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidTennesseeEliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidUABEliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bid
Week 10:
Central FloridaEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidClemsonEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidIowa StateEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidMarylandEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidRiceEliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidStanfordEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidTroyThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion
Week 9
ArkansasEliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidAuburnEliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidBoston CollegeEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidColoradoEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidFlorida StateEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidKentuckyEliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidLouisiana TechThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championMichigan StateEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidMississippi StateEliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidPenn StateEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidPurdueEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidRutgersEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bidSouth CarolinaEliminated from SEC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidSyracuseEliminated from ACC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidTulsaEliminated from AAC race, insufficient resume for at-large bidWest VirginiaEliminated from Big 12 race, insufficient resume for at-large bidWisconsinEliminated from Big Ten race, insufficient resume for at-large bid
Week 8:
Appalachian StateThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championCharlotteSix losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championNew Mexico StateThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championOklahoma StateSix losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championOld DominionThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championSan Jose StateFive losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championWyomingFour losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion
Week 7:
Louisiana-MonroeThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championMarshallThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championMiami (OH)Three losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championOhioThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championTexas StateThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championToledoThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion
Week 6:
Air ForceFour losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championCoastal CarolinaThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championColorado StateThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championFlorida InternationalThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion
Week 5:
Arkansas StateFour losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championBowling GreenThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championBuffaloThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championGeorgia SouthernThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championJacksonville StateThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championNorthern IllinoisThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championSouth AlabamaFour losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championUTEPFour losses, not enough resume quality potential to be top-five conference champion
Week 4:
Ball StateThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be top-five conference championGeorgia StateThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championKent StateThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championLibertyThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championLouisianaThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championNevadaThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championSam HoustonFour losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championWashington StateTwo bad losses, not eligible for conference champion bid
Week 3:
Central MichiganTwo bad losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championEastern MichiganThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference championMassachusettsThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be top-five conference championOregon StateThree losses, not eligible for conference champion bidWestern MichiganThree losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion
Week 2:
UConnTwo losses, not in a conferenceMiddle TennesseeTwo bad losses, not enough resume quality potential to be a top-five conference champion
Week 1:
DelawareNot bowl eligible this seasonMissouri StateNot bowl eligible this seasonAkronNot bowl eligible this season
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