We’ve got five weeks left in the NFL regular season.
Thanks to several surprise contenders, we don’t have to wait until the playoffs to watch some must-win games.
12 teams are at least four games above .500.
That’s tied with the 2000 NFL season for the most teams that are at least four games above .500 through Week 13 in a single season since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
In the NFC, the Detroit Lions took an important step towards remaining in contention with a 44-30 win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.
In a crucial game for both teams, Detroit never seemed in jeopardy of losing outright and ultimately won and covered easily as a 3.5-point favourite.
The Lions are looking up at the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North standings.
They’re also chasing three NFC West teams that all have nine wins in the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and the San Francisco 49ers.
Green Bay, Seattle, and San Francisco currently occupy the three NFC Wild Card spots.
The Packers host the Bears with first place in the NFC North on the line this afternoon.
The Seahawks visit the Atlanta Falcons.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers need a win over the New Orleans Saints to pull one game up on the Carolina Panthers for first place in the NFC South standings.
Meanwhile, the AFC playoff race is absolute chaos.
The No. 3 and No. 10 seeds are separated by two games.
Four of the top seven seeds are decided by a tiebreaker.
With several surprises across the NFL, I wonder whether those overacheivers are due for regression this week.
For example, the Bears have won nine of their last 10 games to climb into first place in the NFC North.
However, Chicago remains the second choice to win its division at +170 at FanDuel.
The Packers are a -145 favourite to win the NFC North and a 6.5-point favourite for today’s game.
As impressive as the turnaround has been this season, the Bears have also lost by double-digits to the Lions and the Ravens on the road.
Chicago has clinched its regular season win total, but outside of last week’s victory over the Philadelphia Eagles on Black Friday, has benefited from a mediocre schedule.
The Bears offence has relied heavily on big plays all season, but the Green Bay defence has been one of the best in the NFL at taking those away.
Add Rome Odunze’s absence and this will be a tough test.
D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combined for 255 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over Philly.
My guess is we see similar motions and formations this week as Ben Johnson leans on his rushing attack against this tough Green Bay defence.
Meanwhile, Christian Watson’s emergence has provided Jordan Love with a legitimate big-play threat of his own.
Love ranks second in the NFL in deep throw rate since Watson returned and the Bears defence ranks 30th in the NFL in EPA per play against passes 20+ yards downfield.
Watson has averaged 3.5 receptions for 60.5 receiving yards this season, including 45+ yards in all six games.
I’ll lock in a builder Same Game Parlay with Green Bay to win outright and Watson 40+ receiving yards at -111.
I also like Luke Musgrave 10+ receiving yards.
First up, the Ravens host the Steelers in another key division showdown with major playoff implications.
As is the case with the Packers, the Ravens are favoured at home and are also a considerable favourite to win their division at FanDuel.
The Steelers have dropped three of their last four games and they were humiliated by James Cook and the Buffalo Bills in a 26-7 loss at home last week.
After giving up 249 rushing yards to Buffalo, I imagine the Pittsburgh defence will have a tough time slowing down Derrick Henry in a crucial game for both teams.
Give me Henry 70+ rushing yards and the Ravens to win outright at -114 as another FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday.
I’ll also lock in Jaylen Warren over 1.5 receptions as a FanDuel Best Bet in this game.
Speaking of Cook, it was obvious to anybody who watched that win over the Steelers that the Bills were fine feeding their running backs repeatedly while limiting Josh Allen’s exposure.
Allen, who was sacked a career-high eight times in a loss to the Houston Texans the week before, attempted 23 passes in the win over Pittsburgh.
Cook carried the ball 32 times for 144 yards.
While Allen is set up for a potential smash spot against the Cincinnati Bengals, I’ll bet that Buffalo continues to feed its running backs this afternoon.
Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defence has allowed the third-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season.
Chase Brown will concede some touches to Samaje Perine, but he’s gone for 78 or more yards in three straight games.
I’ll lock in a builder SGP with Cook 70+ rushing yards and Brown 40+ rushing yards at -120 as a FanDuel Best Bet.
I’m interested to see if the Bears, Steelers, and Bengals can hang with the Packers, Ravens, and Bills on the road.
Below is a full list of all my FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Sunday Week 14.
Enjoy the games, everyone!
DP’s FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Sunday Week 14
Packers SGP -111: Packers win, Watson 40+ receiving
Luke Musgrave over 10.5 receiving
Ravens SGP -114: Ravens win, Henry 70+ rushing
Jaylen Warren over 1.5 receptions
Isaiah Likely over 25.5 receiving
Bills SGP -120: Cook 70+ rushing, Brown 40+ rushing
Jaguars SGP -110: Jaguars +7.5, alt total under 50.5
Jaxson Smith-Njigba over 91.5 receiving
Broncos SGP +100: Broncos win, Bryant 15+ receiving, Engram 15+ receiving
