Half-Life 3, the non-existent sequel to one of the most legendary video game series of all time, has achieved an almost mythical status. It’s been 18 years since Half-Life 2: Episode 2’s cliffhanger ending, without a word from Valve about a follow-up since. However, over the past year, rumors and theories have swirled about Half-Life 3 being announced before the end of the year.
Those rumors reached fever pitch over the past month or so. And while nothing has been confirmed, and many of the theories come from fans grasping at straws, there may be a real hint of an imminent announcement that comes from Valve’s newly revealed Steam Machine gaming console. More specifically, its specs.
How did the rumor mill get started?
Credit: Valve
Despite the sudden onslaught of memes and Reddit posts about a Half-Life 3 announcement, the origins of such rumors aren’t fan-made. They aren’t exactly sudden, either. A few years ago, data miners started pulling files and clues about a Valve game in development, code named HLX. Internet personality and claimed Valve insider Tyler McVicker, who’s known for digging up credible info about upcoming games, claimed last year that HLX “seems to be a fully-fledged non-VR Half-Life game, something that seems too good to be true.”
Then, in August 2024, voice actress and comedian Natasha Chandel accidentally leaked on her own website that she did voice over work for an untitled video game project called “Project White Sands.” She listed “Valve” as the company she worked for. Shortly after the leak started gaining traction online, Chandel took it down, raising suspicions even further. The project’s code name had significance, too, as “White Sands” is the name of a national park in New Mexico, the setting of the original Half-Life.
More recently, Mike Straw, a journalist for Insider Gaming, added fuel to the fire shortly after the Steam Machine’s surprise announcement. “BTW, Valve isn’t done with the big announcements. Soon enough, there’s going to be something else,” he said on X. Then, when discussing Half-Life 3 rumors on the Insider Gaming Weekly podcast, he said, “I have a date that I’ve been told, but I haven’t been able to verify it with multiple sources.” While he didn’t reveal the date he was given, in case it was a “canary trap,” he did say that the date was for this year. He also indicated that it would likely be a Steam Machine launch title.
Another connection between the Steam Machine and Half-Life 3 comes directly from Valve developer Drew Gottlieb. Immediately after the Steam Machine’s announcement, Gottlieb took to X to say, “One less secret I have to worry about.”
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The answer might lie in the Steam Machine’s specs
Credit: Valve
OK, so there’s some very real smoke surrounding Half-Life 3 rumors, especially in how it connects to the Steam Machine. But there may be even more smoke coming from the console itself. Valve’s new Steam Machine is essentially a mid-tier gaming PC for console gamers. And while its specs are certainly good enough to act as a decent console, PC enthusiasts have criticized its lack of upgradability. Valve traded upgradability for compact dimensions, so the Steam Machine is stuck with its relatively mid specs.
However, its fixed specs might be a clue. Half-Life 3 is rumored to be built on Valve’s Source 2 engine, the same one that Counter-Strike 2 runs on. Source 2 is a very well-optimized engine, even if it isn’t as graphically capable as something like Unreal Engine 5, so the Steam Machine should be able to run Half-Life 3 at max settings without much of a problem — if it launches soon.
If the mythical sequel is still far off and boasts better graphics than Counter-Strike 2, Valve runs the risk of it being too graphically challenging for its own gaming console to run as well as top-tier gaming PCs. That wouldn’t be the best look for Valve’s latest and greatest hardware. It’d make more sense for Valve to release it now, to showcase both the game’s and the console’s abilities.
Fixed hardware makes optimization easier
Valve is pretty famous for game optimization. When Half-Life 2 was released in 2004, it looked better than almost any other game on the market, yet it was able to run well on PCs even below its listed minimum requirements. Ask me how I know. Optimizing PCs can be difficult for developers, as the breadth of variety among PC gamers’ hardware is massive. However, it’s much easier to optimize a game when you know exactly what hardware you’re working with.
That’s not to say that Valve isn’t optimizing Half-Life 3 to run well on PCs other than its own console. But it would be able to make sure that its homegrown rig can run the game at max settings without a hitch, making the Steam Machine even more attractive.
Half-Life 2 was an incredible technical achievement in its day. The texture fidelity, lifelike physics for almost every object, and astounding attention to detail blew the minds of countless gamers. If you shot a wooden plank, not only would there be a bullet hole, but it’d also splinter. But then shoot metal, and it’d indent. Shoot water, and you’d get both a splash and ripples throughout the water that would affect nearby floating objects.
Credit: Valve
Mind-blowing stuff at the time, making its optimization that much more impressive. The more recent Half-Life: Alyx, a VR-only prequel to Half-Life 2, was lauded for being beautifully optimized despite quite possibly the most immersive VR game ever. And Valve likely doesn’t want to release a proper sequel until it’s every bit as optimized. Fixed Steam Machine specs can help with that.
Does code name “Fremont” mean anything to you?
Credit: Valve Corporation
Pre-release leaks of the Steam Machine revealed that its internal code name was “Fremont.” For casual Half-Life fans, that means nothing. However, the most die-hard followers will raise an eyebrow or two at it, as it could be a cheeky wink-wink from Valve.
According to XDA, one of Valve’s former Half-Life and Half-Life 2 writers, Marc Laidlaw, wrote a short story in 2017 called “Epistle 3.” That sounds a lot like “Episode 3,” the Half-Life 2 DLC that Valve never made. Fans who read his short story realized that it felt like it could double as the plot to a Half-Life 2 sequel. Furthermore, the protagonist’s name felt a bit on the nose: Gertrude Fremont.
OK, so the whole Fremont thing could just be a cheeky joke by Valve, ribbing its former writer for naming his protagonist so similarly to its own Gordon Freeman. However, Valve isn’t the sort of company that does anything without careful, thoughtful planning. So it seems more like an intentional wink at fans who are drinking industrial-grade amounts of hopium at this point.
Where there’s smoke, hopefully there’s fire
There’s no guarantee Half-Life 3 is even real, never mind approaching release. While there have been countless rumors over the past two decades following Half-Life 2’s release, Valve has never confirmed anything. However, this year, more so than any before it, has cranked the hype train up to full speed. Back in May, McVicker said that not only was the game in development, but that the story is finished, and the game is “playable, end-to-end.”
All of these rumors, combined with the Steam Machine’s release and its specs that seem tailor-made to run a Source 2-engine game at max settings right now, make for a hell of a lot of smoke. Thankfully, we shouldn’t have to wait too long to find out whether all of this smoke leads to fire, but it does feel like it right now. And while Valve has been officially quiet about its mythical sequel all these years, its new gaming console might have done all the talking instead.
