AFC Playoff Picture
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1. New England Patriots (11-2, leads AFC East)
2. Denver Broncos (10-2, leads AFC West)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4, leads AFC South)
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6, leads AFC North)
The New England Patriots currently lead the AFC, but the Denver Broncos can tie them at 11-2 with a win at the 2-10 Las Vegas Raiders. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, but the two teams haven’t (and won’t) play each other this regular season.
The next tiebreaker is conference record. Both New England and Denver are 6-2, but that tie will be broken one way or another when the Broncos visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.
If the Pats and Broncos are tied atop the AFC and have the same conference record, the next tiebreaker is common opponents between the two teams. As of now, Denver is 5-0 on that front, and New England is 4-1. The Pats’ lone loss was to the Raiders, and the Broncos can jump up to 6-0 on that front Sunday.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
7. Buffalo Bills (8-4)
All three of these teams are still in the hunt to win their divisions, but the Colts are the only one that controls their own destiny. Indianapolis plays the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, and a win puts the Colts a game ahead with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. Indianapolis also closes the year against the Jags in Week 18 at home.
The Bills’ spot is the most tenuous here because they lost to the first team outside the current playoff picture, the Houston Texans. In the competitive AFC, the Bills need to keep winning. A home date looms against a rejuvenated (albeit 4-8) Cincinnati Bengals team that has superstar quarterback Joe Burrow back under center after he missed nine-plus games with a Grade 3 turf toe injury.
8. Houston Texans (7-5)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
11. Miami Dolphins (5-7)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
13. New York Jets (3-9)
14. Cleveland Browns (3-9)
Can the Texans pull this off? After an ugly 0-3 start, Houston has bounced back to win seven of nine. A punishing defense that’s stellar up front and in the secondary has been the catalyst here, and it’s led to victories over four teams that currently have eight or more wins. The good news for Houston is that it’s only a game back of the Colts and Jags for first, so the team realistically has paths to the playoffs via the division and wild card.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are both 6-6, but the former team has a much better chance to make the playoffs than the latter. For starters, the Steelers are tied for first atop the AFC North with the Ravens, but they have two games with them still, beginning Sunday in Baltimore. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a record around .500, perhaps 9-8, be good enough to win the division.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a tough schedule ahead, with three of their final five games against the 7-5 Texans, the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers and the 10-2 Denver Broncos. All of them are at home, and it’s possible Kansas City will need to win all three to have a chance at making the playoffs. It also doesn’t help that the Chiefs have dropped some games against potential wild card competitors in the Chargers, Jaguars and Bills.
Ultimately, their tough division is a problem, with the 10-2 Broncos running away with it and the 8-4 Bolts solidly in second (with a head-to-head tiebreaker currently in hand over the Chiefs by virtue of their Week 1 win). The Chiefs also sit two games behind in the wild card, an unfathomable thought given their incredible success in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Eliminated
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
16. Tennessee Titans (1-11)
This group is lonely for the time being with only two teams eliminated heading into Week 14, but the 3-9 Cleveland Browns and 3-9 New York Jets could join them after this week’s games.
