Houston Texans Start-Sit: Week 13 Fantasy Advice for C.J. Stroud, Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, Christian Kirk, and Others

The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.

This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Houston Texans players heading into their matchup with the Indianapolis Colts to help you craft a winning lineup.

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C.J. Stroud, QB

The expectation is for C.J. Stroud (concussion) to return from a three-game absence, all of which happened to be victories for a Houston game that is now over .500 for the first time this season.

Does it matter?

In theory, it should. In those three games, Davis Mills had 270+ passing yards in two of them and multiple passing scores in two of them. If Stroud can parlay that success and add 15% production as a result of being the more talented player, we are looking at 22-23 fantasy points, and that’s a usable projection in a spot where the Texans figure to be pushed offensively.

But will it?

Stroud has one top-10 finish this season, and I worry that his weakness is in danger of being further exposed after the injury.

Profile Against The Blitz

• 2023: 13.7 yards per completion, 8.6% TD rate, 1.7% INT rate
• 2024: 10.7 yards per completion, 5.2% TD rate, 2.2% INT rate
• 2025: 10.2 yards per completion, 3.1% TD rate, 3.1% INT rate

The Colts aren’t a high blitz team, but they’ve gotten meaningfully more aggressive over the past month, and in a spot like this against an offensive line that can struggle at a high level, I expect that to be a leverage point.

Show me you’re healthy, Stroud. The Chiefs are on the books for next Sunday night, but after that, there are home games against the Cardinals and the Raiders. If Stroud can steady the ship over the next two weeks, he could be an asset as your fantasy season comes to a close.

Davis Mills, QB

Davis Mills has led the Texans to three straight wins, but he’s averaging 5.9 yards per pass this season. He hasn’t done enough in terms of elevating this offense to justify the team playing him over C.J. Stroud when the presumed starter is cleared (and that’s the expectation).

Nico Collins has averaged 13.8 yards per catch over the past three weeks, and the Mills legacy will be felt in that fashion. If he loosens the cap on the Collins jar and Stroud can execute opening it, their WR1 could well be the difference maker you drafted him to be for the fantasy postseason.

Nick Chubb, RB

Who doesn’t love Nick Chubb?

We all do. He’s an easy player to root for, but we can safely do it from a distance with no fantasy investment.

The veteran running back doesn’t have a carry gaining more than nine yards in five of his past six games, and the six carries he got on Thursday night felt forced.

READ MORE: Kyle Soppe’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

Woody Marks is the future of this backfield, and the future is now. I assume that Chubb will continue to be responsible for a handful of carries moving forward (his betting line entering last week was 22.5 rushing yards), and they might even be essential touches for Houston. Still, they aren’t nearly enough for our purposes.

Chubb hasn’t been worthy of a roster spot for a month: move on and get some level of upside to round out your roster instead.

Woody Marks, RB

I hate when people use this as a descriptor, because I don’t think it fits the mold as often as it’s used, but this is the rare case I’m on board with it.

Woody Marks has “juice”.

That’s a vague term that means something different to everyone, but in this instance, it’s night and day from him and Nick Chubb, something that the Texans seem to finally be on board with.

Against the pitiful Bills’ run defense, the rookie recorded a season-high 74 rush yards and out-touched Chubb 17-7, an advantage that seems more likely to grow than shrink for the remainder of the season.

MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer

We saw him excel in the passing game at USC last season (19.2% of his passes), and the C.J. Stroud version of this offense seemed more willing to leverage that skill. The starting QB has been hurt in or out of four straight, and Marks has a total of four receptions. He was a threat to catch 3-4 passes in the month before this Davis Mills experience, and if we can get back to that, there is top 15 production in this profile.

Until we marry the ground volume with the usage in the pass game, I’m ranking him closer to RB20 than RB10, but I’m open to the idea of adjusting that default rank if we get proof of that being the plan this weekend.

Christian Kirk, WR

Christian Kirk got his first touchdown of the season and saw two end zone targets in the upset win over the Bills on Thursday night, but I’m more tempted to call it a flash in the pan than anything predictive.

For the game, he ranked fourth among receivers in snaps played and ran just 13 routes. The fact that he was able to earn six targets on that limited role was good to see and can be used as an excuse to roster him, but I’m not comfortable going this far down the Houston depth chart to look for value.

If an injury were to occur to Nico Collins or Jayden Higgins, we might have a conversation. Heck, if we erased Xavier Hutchinson from the equation, maybe I could get there as a flexible piece in a deeper format.

But with this WR room currently healthy, Kirk doesn’t own the type of profile that makes me excited, and thus, he ranks well outside of my top 35 at the position.

Jayden Higgins, WR

I like what we are seeing here, but I fear this is a Pat Bryant situation, where it is more a laying of the foundation for next season than something we need to act on in a major way down the stretch of 2025.

Jayden Higgins has earned at least seven targets in all three games during this win streak, scoring in two of them and averaging 107.7 air yards in the process. He entered the league billed as a big-play maker, and I think we’ve seen enough in the way of signs to be interested.

Long term.

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These three high usage games have come with Davis Mills, not C.J. Stroud, under center, and given that we’ve yet to see signs of life like this with the QB1, I’m not flexing him just yet, and I doubt I’ll get there over the final month.

The usage over the past three weeks has come down the field (13+ yard aDOT in all of them), and I’m not sold on this offense, behind a struggling offensive line, sustaining two WRs with that skill set.

Nico Collins, WR

The Nico Collins flame has flickered with hope with Davis Mills under center, but it sounds as if C.J. Stroud is set to return, and I need to see this connection rediscover their connection from last season before I label him as the WR1 that I think he very much can be.

Statistical Profile With Stroud

• 2024: 30.1% over expectations, 3.05 yards per route, 11.9 aDOT
• 2025: 8.1% under expectations, 1.99 yards per route, 11.5 aDOT

The production has fallen off a cliff despite similar route demands. The offensive line is a concern, but if Mills can overcome it and allow Collins to show signs of life, I’m cautiously optimistic.

Star receivers have showcased week-breaking upside against the Colts this season (Puka Nacua hung 36 points on them back in Week 4 and Keenan Allen surprised with 28.9 in Week 7), and I do think that sort of game is within the range of outcomes for Sunday.

Dalton Schultz, TE

Davis Mills funneled one-quarter of his targets in the direction of Dalton Schultz during his first start, but that rate declined over the past two weeks, and as a volume-based fantasy asset, that’s about as damning as it gets.

Regardless of who the quarterback is, we know that Schultz doesn’t hold a ton of scoring equity (five end-zone targets since the beginning of last season), and his deep-target rate has been slashed in half from a season ago.

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If you want to stream Schultz under the premise that Houston is playing in an even-to-negative script and that the Colts (bottom-10 in opponent aDOT) are happy to give up those underneath completions, I won’t fault you.

I don’t think the upside is that of a week-winning asset, but if you told me that Schultz finishes this week with a 6-60 type of line, I’d believe you: he’s a low-end TE1 for me.