Who are the NFL’s 2 most complete teams? Can the Colts recover? Our experts’ Week 14 takeaways
Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.
Were you ready for the NFL’s division leaders to seize control? It didn’t happen this week. The Green Bay Packers knocked off the rival Chicago Bears to take over first place in the NFC North. The Pittsburgh Steelers went on the road and upset the Baltimore Ravens to move into sole possession of first place in the AFC North. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were upset by the New Orleans Saints at home to fall into a tie with the Carolina Panthers. The Indianapolis Colts lost quarterback Daniel Jones to an Achilles injury and then lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, falling out of first place in the AFC South for the first time this season.
NFL writers Ted Nguyen, Jourdan Rodrigue and Saad Yousuf share their thoughts on a Week 14 in which the division standings continued to churn, with a four-game sprint to the finish line still to come.
The Bears went toe-to-toe with their archrivals in Lambeau Field on Sunday before coming up one drive short. Should that performance actually make us take Chicago more seriously?
Rodrigue: If people aren’t taking the Ben Johnson Chicago Bears seriously by now, they’re not watching the games. Especially seeing the Bears run the ball so physically with that 17-play, 83-yard drive featuring one of the most demoralizing third-and-long screens you’ll ever see to help set up what was, at the time, the game-tying touchdown. This group is tough, physical and well-coached. They’ll be one or two plays on either the right or wrong side of most of these games — but that’s it, and that is a huge difference from the Bears of past seasons. Credit the contending Packers for making the big plays when it counted most as the Bears mounted their comeback, from a Josh Jacobs go-ahead touchdown run with 3:32 left in the fourth quarter to Keisean Nixon’s game-sealing interception on fourth-and-1, in the end zone, on a Caleb Williams throw from the Packers’ 14-yard line.
Nguyen: Definitely. For them to come into Green Bay and compete like they did in a playoff-type environment was tremendous and shows how far this team has progressed in Johnson’s short time there. Unfortunately, the defense gave up too many explosives. They just don’t have a lot of talent on that side of the ball. It wasn’t a pretty game for Williams, although he made a lot of spectacular plays outside of structure. The Bears were so close to tying the game, but Williams just misjudged the defender running to his left and underthrew the biggest pass of the game. He’ll learn from it. Overall, the young Bears were poised, didn’t flinch even when they were down and kept answering Green Bay until that last play. It wasn’t the ending Chicago hoped for, but the future is bright. Plus, they still have a legit shot at winning the division.
Yousuf: It does make me take the Bears more seriously. Beating the Philadelphia Eagles last week was fine, but the Eagles are sputtering, so it was hard to pinpoint how much of that was the Bears being good versus the Eagles continuing to tailspin. The Bears have nine wins, but only two of them are against teams currently in the playoff picture. They beat the Eagles last week and they snuck past the Pittsburgh Steelers the week before that. Even though they lost to the Packers, it was a quality performance on the road, against one of the better teams in the league, that came down to almost quite literally the final play of the game. Williams made some phenomenal throws and the defense held up for most of the game against a diverse set of Packers weapons. The rematch in prime time in a couple of weeks will tell us even more about this Chicago team.
The Seahawks and Rams both won in routs on the road to improve to 10-3. True or false: The two most complete teams in the NFL both play in the NFC West?
Yousuf: I feel like the New England Patriots would like to have a word, but it’s hard to argue with what the Rams and Seahawks have shown us this season. The Rams definitely deserve to be mentioned in that echelon. According to TruMedia, they are the only team in the NFL in the top three in offensive (No. 2) and defensive (No. 3) EPA through most of 14 weeks. (The Seahawks are tops in the league in defensive EPA but rank 13th in offensive EPA.) What has impressed me most about the Seahawks, though, has been their consistency. They’ve lost three games this season, and each loss was by four points or less. In their head-to-head game against the Rams, the Seahawks lost the turnover battle by three, yet only lost the game by 2 points, on the road. I would probably rank the Patriots ahead of the Seahawks, but you can make a strong argument for Seattle.
Rodrigue: True, although the Green Bay Packers would like a word. On the Seahawks and Rams: Their completeness as entire teams also applies to their coaching staffs. Credit to Seattle’s Mike Macdonald for moving quickly off of former offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and onto current OC Klint Kubiak, who is running a modern throwback blend of the offenses of his father Gary and of Gary Kubiak-protege Kyle Shanahan — and it’s working beautifully. Macdonald’s defense (with defensive coordinator Aden Durde) is extraordinarily talented and a matchup nightmare. The Seahawks’ defensive backs can match any personnel, and their line and inside linebackers are talented enough to allow any number of combinations behind them, because they’ll control the base downs and pass rush.
In L.A., Sean McVay has reinvented himself once again, converting his three-receiver (11 personnel) concepts into essentially the same plays but with three tight ends (13 personnel) to overmatch against defenses. And second-year defensive coordinator Chris Shula has developed a young group into one of the best defenses in the league. The players bring it all to life, but these coaches are also as talented as it gets in the NFL.
Sean McVay, Puka Nacua and the Los Angeles Rams got back on track with a blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals. (Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
Nguyen: True. Both teams have had elite production on both sides of the ball. The Rams’ secondary is a bit of a question mark, but as long as the offense forces opponents into a passing script, that defensive line can pin its ears back. These two teams have also been remarkably consistent all year. The Rams had a letdown against the Panthers last week but got back to dominating this week. One area in which the Seahawks have been elite and the Rams relatively shaky is special teams. Still, the Rams are playing great, they have plenty of experience, and they’re led by a coach that’s been to two Super Bowls. That experience will be huge in the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see these two teams face off twice more: in their regular-season rematch and again in the postseason.
Just when it seemed the Baltimore Ravens had steadied themselves, they lost consecutive home games to the Cincinnati Bengals and Steelers. What’s wrong in Baltimore?
Yousuf: It’s painfully obvious that Lamar Jackson is not himself since his various leg injuries. Part of me wonders if the Ravens should have given him some more time to heal when they were staring at a stretch of games against the Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns and New York Jets. It’s easy to say that in hindsight, and I understand the margin for error had been significantly trimmed after the Ravens started the season 1-5. It feels more likely that they could have gotten through some of that stretch with backup Tyler Huntley than that they can get through this home stretch with Jackson being so limited. The issues for the Ravens go beyond Jackson, particularly with other key veteran offensive pieces looking like shells of what we’ve grown accustomed to, and a defense that has been hit by injuries and is struggling. But Jackson often serves as Baltimore’s deodorant, and being limited has made him unable to do that.
Rodrigue: Throw a dart at pretty much everything not named Kyle Hamilton … there’s your answer. Hey, they like us to keep these responses short!
In all seriousness, Jackson is clearly hurt and playing through something, or multiple somethings. A run game that is predicated on the danger he poses in that phase has less teeth, inclusive to the run blocking and overall productivity of running back Derrick Henry following an incredible 2024 season. Jackson, always among the best passers in the NFL, doesn’t seem to have a reliable receiving threat who can dictate coverages. Meanwhile, the defense was No. 28 in pressure rate entering Week 14 and has had to again make adjustments to solve what seems like more problems than answers at any time. Overall, the offense is disjointed, and so is this team as a whole — you’re not seeing a ton of complementary football in Baltimore.
Nguyen: Jackson is clearly still not himself. Their run blocking is inconsistent and they don’t have a No. 1 receiver. For a long time, that role was filled by tight end Mark Andrews, but he’s clearly declined. They have a lot of issues catching the ball and finishing plays, too. There were some huge drops in Sunday’s loss, including Isaiah Likely’s drop on what should have been the go-ahead touchdown, in which the ball was in his hands. Maybe it should have been called a touchdown by officials, but you can’t leave that up to them. Zay Flowers had a big fourth-down drop, too. This has been an issue in Baltimore for years, but it’s a bigger issue when the Ravens can’t run the ball consistently and their defense isn’t as dominating as it once was.
Is there any chance the Colts can weather the loss of Daniel Jones with their strong defense and effective offensive system? Or is this dream season essentially ruined by his Achilles injury?
Nguyen: Without a veteran backup, it seems unlikely. Anthony Richardson has his faults, but he has had years of experience in this offense and the talent to make things interesting — except he doesn’t seem close to returning from an orbital fracture. Rookie QB Riley Leonard had his issues as a passer at Notre Dame. He made some plays in Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars, but this offense is going to be severely limited with him under center. The best they can hope for is getting cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner back and transitioning into a defensive team that can run the ball with Jonathan Taylor.
I feel awful for Jones, who was having a resurgent season. This injury could affect his next season as well. Maybe if the Colts can get Richardson back and he shows some growth, they have a chance. Unfortunately, the Colts are dealing with a lot of other key injuries on top of the one to their quarterback.
An Achilles injury to Daniel Jones was just the latest blow for the reeling Indianapolis Colts. (Mike Carlson / Getty Images)
Yousuf: Whether or not Jones’ injury has ruined the Colts’ season really depends on your view of the team’s season with Jones at quarterback and what you believed their ceiling to be. Even with Jones at the helm, the Colts felt like a team destined to make the playoffs, potentially win a game and then go home in the divisional round. I still think they can have a similar season without Jones, but it’s contingent on the running game being much better than what it’s been over the past month.
There’s a reason that when the Colts got off to that surprising 8-2 start, it was Taylor — not Jones — who was receiving MVP buzz. Taylor has now been held to under 100 yards rushing in four of the last five games, and he’s been held under 100 yards from scrimmage in three of those four games. Taylor’s involvement and success is crucial for the Colts’ offense. That doesn’t mean that Jones’ injury doesn’t matter or that he hasn’t been a positive for Indianapolis. A wild-card berth felt like the floor with Jones at quarterback, and a division title felt like the ceiling. Without Jones, it’s entirely possible the Colts miss the playoffs altogether if the run game and defense don’t significantly step up their play.
Rodrigue: I was higher on Jones’ ceiling than some after seeing some of the difficult throws he made when healthy and how he could create extra yards with his legs. It’s simultaneously true that he is at his best when he has a strong running game to steady him, and during the difficult stretch in which the Colts lost three of four entering Week 14, they didn’t rush for more than 90 yards in any of those losses. Against Jacksonville (and in a downpour), they struggled on the ground again. Taylor had just 45 first-half rushing yards (3.0 per carry) and lost a fumble.
Meanwhile, while Leonard missed a couple of throws, he also made a couple of great ones (including a TD pass taken away by a flag), and also showed an ability to create out of structure. He and the Colts offense were set up for failure in the first half on a pivotal drive inside the final two minutes. Facing a third-and-1 from the Jacksonville 44-yard line, coach Shane Steichen called a deep pass play that was tipped incomplete. Then Steichen called a fourth-and-1 run out of the shotgun formation that was stopped for a loss. All of this to say: Without their starting quarterback, the Colts will need to revive a run game that has recently struggled and make better decisions on offense to set up a really inexperienced young quarterback.
After falling to the Saints, the Bucs have now dropped four of five to fall into a tie with the Panthers for first place in the NFC South. Tampa Bay and Carolina still play each other twice. Who will win the division?
Rodrigue: Don’t look now, but the NFC South has gotten fun as heck if you like a little chaos with your football. The Panthers’ bye week came at an ideal time to gather and make a real push for the division; meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been such a mercurial team for half the season at this point. If Carolina’s Bryce Young keeps playing like he did in an upset win over the Rams last week, the combination of that and an ascending Panthers run game (behind an offensive line that I believe is really underrated) could be enough to take the NFC South. I still don’t trust Carolina’s defense — but the Bucs have been plenty streaky on both sides of the ball, too.
Yousuf: As bad as the Bucs have been since the start of November, I still believe they’ll end up winning the NFC South. Losing four out of five games is never good, but some context is important. Three of those losses came during a gauntlet featuring games against the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. There’s no way to dress up a loss to the Saints, but the Bucs were hampered by injuries on offense, including being without All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs. Tampa Bay should be getting healthier, which could include the return of wide receiver Mike Evans, and the Bucs are still just a couple of games into welcoming back running back Bucky Irving. I expect the offense to hit its stride during the home stretch.
More than that, though, the discussion here isn’t about how good the Bucs will be but whether they can do enough to inch past the Panthers. Aside from the two head-to-heads, the Bucs play the Atlanta Falcons and Dolphins, while the Panthers play the Saints and the Seattle Seahawks. That Seahawks game could tilt the division in favor of Tampa Bay.
Nguyen: The Bucs’ injury issues just might be too much to overcome. They aren’t doing anything consistently that they can hang their hats on. Defensively, the blitz isn’t getting home, leaving them susceptible to big plays. And when they don’t blitz, they can’t create pressure. Their passing game has to be lights out every week. For a while at the beginning of the season, they were producing without veteran receivers Chris Godwin and Evans, but their young receivers have come back down to earth and quarterback Baker Mayfield is pressing. The Panthers are a hard team to trust because of how inconsistent they are, but they can run the ball and Young has the ability to make big plays. Their defense is middle-of-the-pack in most categories but they have some playmakers. They could be a young team on the upswing, and the bye week could have been what they needed to reevaluate, organize and gear up for a run.
The Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders, who both lost again on Sunday, entered this season with sky-high hopes that were ruined by QB injuries and defensive failings. Which team has a better long-term outlook?
Rodrigue: It’s so wild that I can’t simply answer, “Oh, no-brainer: the team with Joe Burrow” or, “Oh, no-brainer: the team with Jayden Daniels.” That is because both of these teams need significant rebuilds on defense, and coaching changes (Al Golden arriving in Cincinnati, Dan Quinn taking over play calling for Washington) are not enough to mask personnel issues. The Commanders made the most of Daniels’ rookie season with a veteran defense, but they stayed old too long. The Bengals have question marks in every phase. Even when healthy, there is only so much the quarterback can do — we saw it last season with Burrow. I’d say to both teams in free agency and the draft: Remove the quarterback from the equation. What does your roster need? Lifting the floor of a team in a worst-case scenario (such as a QB injury) is a skill of well-run, well-built organizations.
Nguyen: The Commanders have new ownership, which will hopefully be willing to open up the pocketbook. With a young star quarterback, things looked to be pointing up for Washington, but after this season, this team will need to cycle out a lot of veterans and add young talent to support Daniels. The Commanders have to get some weapons and find some defensive talent.
Jayden Daniels was knocked out of the Commanders’ loss to the Vikings. (Ellen Schmidt / Getty Images)
The Bengals have their quarterback and two star receivers locked up and their offensive line actually has been playing really good ball as of late. Defensively, the cabinet is bare, but the Bengals have a formula they could win with. However, their ceiling will be limited by how many resources have been poured into the offense. I’ll give a slight nod to the Bengals here, because there are a lot more question marks with the Commanders. Will new ownership prove to be a positive when it needs to spend? Will they be able to retain offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury? Can Daniels protect himself?
Yousuf: There are a few things that give the Bengals the edge in long-term outlook. The Commanders have the oldest roster in the NFL, featuring guys like Bobby Wagner, Von Miller and Zach Ertz, who was also injured on Sunday. There was buzz coming into the season that Jacory Croskey-Merritt could become a reliable backfield mate for Daniels, and that didn’t come to fruition. Above all, Daniels is a talented player, but his play style might lend to him suffering the type of injuries he’s dealt with this season.
Burrow has also been injured often in his career but his injuries have often felt like freak incidents, more about the situation around him than his playing style. Aside from the offensive line, I feel fairly comfortable with the Bengals’ offense and feel like they need a nearly full reset on defense. The Commanders have some pieces on each side of the ball. Both teams have some building to do in the offseason, but Burrow over Daniels is enough for me to give the edge to the Bengals.
