Arizona will likely move into the No. 1 spot in Monday’s Associated Press Top 25 poll, because this is how voters vote. No. 1 loses, as Purdue did Saturday; No. 2 moves up.
I will not criticize anyone for having the Wildcats atop their poll, because they continue to have one of the best resumes in the sport: a road win at UConn, neutral-floor wins against Florida and UCLA and a home win against Auburn.
But, as I laid out last week, Michigan is performing at historic levels, and the Wolverines actually added to their efficiency margin this past week in a 101-60 rout of Rutgers.
It’s also possible we were robbed of seeing the best two teams in college basketball play each other at the Players Era Festival. There’s an argument to be made that Iowa State, after its 81-58 win at Purdue, should be ranked ahead of Arizona, which it is at all of the predictive sites. I considered moving the Cyclones to No. 2 but kept the Wildcats ahead because they have more quality wins.
But this week, let’s start with those Cyclones, who put together the most impressive road performance of this season — and maybe an all-timer?
More below on Duke, Gonzaga and Illinois as well.
Dropped out: Indiana, Kentucky, Auburn
Keeping an eye on: Clemson, Saint Louis, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Miami
3. Iowa State (9-0)
Both Iowa State and Purdue are killer when their guards can hit the roller or the short roll coming off a ball screen or a dribble hand-off. Get the ball to ISU’s Joshua Jefferson or Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn in the middle of the floor with a numbers advantage, and it’s usually a bucket.
Both defenses tried to take those away Saturday. The game was won and lost on what happened when the ball was forced to a perimeter player, either by passing ahead of the hedge or on a skip pass. In these situations, Iowa State scored 21 points on 13 possessions — 1.62 points per possession — while Purdue made just 1 of 10 shots and had a turnover, scoring a measly 0.18 PPP on those possessions.
It wasn’t the first pass that mattered as much — Tamin Lipsey and Braden Smith are two of the best pick-and-roll decision-makers in the country and both usually made the right reads — but the difference was what the Cyclones were able to do once the ball left the point guard’s hands. Iowa State’s ability and Purdue’s inability to make wide-open shots certainly benefited Iowa State, but Cyclones also played better to the advantages created:
Iowa State was also much better in scramble mode, making it almost feel like there was an extra Cyclone on the floor:
It would have been a closer game if the Boilermakers had made a higher percentage of their open looks, but those misses were so critical because getting an open shot against the Cyclones is a rarity. They played an almost perfect defensive game, taking away Kaufman-Renn with double teams and guarding Purdue’s ball screen actions as well as anyone has all season.
5. Duke (10-0)
Blue Devils coach Jon Scheyer used a 3-2 zone for 11 possessions on Saturday at Michigan State that ended up winning the game. Duke was having trouble defending Sparty’s pick-and-rolls and pick-and-pops. The zone took those actions away and took Michigan State out of its flow. Michigan State scored only 4 points in those 11 possessions, allowing Duke to win on a day when it had its worst offensive efficiency all year.
While I’ve yet to be all-in on believing in Duke and am still not quite there, Scheyer has done an excellent job getting the most out of his pieces and making smart schematic adjustments. He also is willing to think outside the box, a prime example being the Cam Boozer-Isaiah Evans pick-and-pop that was quite fruitful for the Blue Devils last week. With Boozer as the initiator, he fed Evans for the game winner against Florida. That was also the call on Caleb Foster’s game-sealing 3, off a Boozer kickout, in the final minute against Michigan State.
Winning at Michigan State with four freshmen and three sophomores in your rotation is impressive stuff. If Duke keeps this up, Boozer is the favorite for National Player of the Year and Scheyer should be in consideration for Coach of the Year.
7. Gonzaga (9-1)
Gonzaga got back to what it does best on Friday against Kentucky, getting the ball to Graham Ike and Braden Huff as much as possible. It was obvious during the game that Kentucky has identity issues and doesn’t know how to generate efficient shots, while Gonzaga knows the way to win is to get Ike and Huff the ball. The Zags showed their smarts whenever a guard ended up on one of the bigs. They identified the mismatch and got it to them, either in the post:
Or in a spot where they could win in isolation:
Against Michigan, the post duo combined for just 15 points — Ike failing to score a basket for only the third time in his career — and that’s one of many reasons it went terribly for the Zags. Huff and Ike responded with 58 points against UK, nearly outscoring the Cats by themselves.
Gonzaga’s lowest win probability the rest of the season is 73 percent, in its finale at Saint Mary’s on Feb. 28, according to KenPom. That’s one of only four games below 90 percent and the only one below 80 percent. It’s conceivable the Zags have one of the strangest regular seasons of all time, finishing with just one loss and that one loss coming by 40 points.
14. Illinois (7-2)
Tomislav Ivisic hadn’t quite looked like himself until Saturday against Tennessee. Coach Brad Underwood had been slowly working Ivisic back from a bone bruise on his knee that kept him out for three games.
Against the Vols, Ivisic showed why he’s one of the best big man weapons in the sport. In the first half, the Illini were hunting Nate Ament anytime they could get him switched onto Ivisic, then activated booty-ball mode:
Ivisic bullied Ament for three buckets in the first half. In the second half, it was the same strategy, but this time the Vols were ready to send help earlier.
A minute later, the Illini got the same matchup, with Ivisic just sitting a simple down screen that the Vols switched. What I love on this one: Watch how far Andrej Stojakovic, initially in the left corner, takes his defender up the floor, giving Ivisic a ton of room to operate:
When Ivisic attacked middle, David Mirkovic’s cut freed Keaton Wagler to be wide open for the 3-pointer. The Illini are well-schooled on how to attack mismatches and space around them. It feels like this team is starting to figure out how everything should fit together. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Illini end up a top 10 team. Buy stock now.
