The Toronto Maple Leafs just wrapped their longest road trip of the season, and it certainly went better than expected. Let’s just say there wasn’t a whole lot of optimism going into what looked like a grinding, winding path through the Eastern Conference.
Back on Nov. 25, the Leafs were fifth last in the NHL. They had allowed the most goals against per minute in the league, and only five teams had been more heavily outshot.
The power play was a mess. Their goalies couldn’t seem to make a save, with an awful .880 save percentage, a dramatic falloff from the .916 Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll combined for a year ago.
Every game or two, it seemed someone important was getting hurt, led by significant injuries to Chris Tanev and Stolarz, two of the Leafs’ most important players in 2024-25.
Ten days later, the Leafs are in a much better place thanks to a 4-1-0 run that included three straight impressive wins over the Pittsburgh Penguins, Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes, three Eastern Conference teams they’ll be battling the rest of the way for playoff position. (OK, maybe not Carolina.)
In a season that has been very short on positives, this latest run has offered many. Yes, it’s only five games, and there’s still a long way to go for the Leafs to prove they can do this consistently and make the postseason for a 10th consecutive year. However, for the first time all season, they look something like the team that had 108 points a year ago and won the Atlantic Division.
The chart below digs into some of the key stats that have driven that transformation, which we can break down more below.
After combing through the data from the Leafs’ hot streak, two things stand out immediately.
1. They have received far better goaltending.
This is largely thanks to Woll, who returned on Nov. 15 from a leave of absence that kept him out of training camp and the season’s first 18 games. Since his return, Woll started eight of the Leafs’ nine games and posted a sparkling .928 save percentage.
That’s top five in the NHL among goalies with at least five starts in that span, behind only Jesper Wallstedt, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Scott Wedgewood and Filip Gustavsson.
Helping bolster the Leafs in net has been rookie Dennis Hildeby, who has looked equally up to the task with an impressive .957 save percentage in three appearances.
Unfortunately for Toronto, they might now have to lean on Hildeby, their third stringer, as Woll left Thursday’s win in Carolina with an apparent leg injury. There’s been no update on his status. The Leafs will need the massive 24-year-old Swede to play well in order to continue their momentum, as they’ve struggled to win when they’re not getting enough saves.
A healthy Woll feels like an imperative if the Leafs are going to keep turning around their season.
2. They are back to limiting quality chances more like last year.
The Leafs’ play over their most recent road trip wasn’t always pretty. They probably didn’t deserve to win in Columbus last Wednesday, for example, but found a way to hang on and get a nice overtime tally from William Nylander.
They then blew a lead in Washington two nights later in a game they were outclassed territorially, which drags down some of the possession numbers you see in the table above.
Overall, however, we can see some positive trends beyond just great goaltending from Woll and Hildeby. Over the past five games, the Leafs are up to 10th in the NHL in high-danger chances against per minute in all situations.
At five-on-five, their numbers are even better, as they’re second in the league in high-danger chances for and fifth in high-danger chances against. While they’re still a weaker possession team, allowing a lot of zone time and shot attempts against, the Leafs are limiting higher quality opportunities from the slot and off the rush far better than they were in the first 22 games of the season.
That newfound defensive stinginess is really apparent on the penalty kill, too, as they’re top five in most metrics like expected goals, scoring chances and high-danger chances faced when down a man. The addition of Scott Laughton (back from injury) and Troy Stecher (claimed off waivers from Edmonton) has been huge in this department, as they currently have the best underlying numbers on the Toronto PK so far this season.
These are going to be trends to watch as they face two tough divisional opponents (the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning) in their next two home games.
The Leafs haven’t really had any issues scoring all season, but they have been relying on their top-six forwards and an elevated shooting percentage to generate a lot of that offense. Their power play remains a mess.
In addition to their goalies and newcomers such as Laughton and Stecher, though, the other big positive over the road trip was some of their depth forwards finally coming to life.
The Dakota Joshua, Nicolas Roy and Bobby McMann third line has chipped in with a combined six goals over the last five games, giving Toronto significant contributions from the bottom six for the first sustained stretch all season. (McMann actually leads the team in scoring over this span, with three goals and six points in the five games despite averaging only around 13 minutes a night.)
New top-liner Max Domi (five points in four games) and defensemen Stecher and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (both with four points in five) have also been big offensive contributors, giving the Leafs a more well-rounded attack than what we saw through the first 20-odd games.
If the Leafs are going to sustain this stretch of play, however, they’re going to need more from the power play, and they’ll have to continue to improve their territorial play. Still, strong goaltending, more balanced scoring and a strong penalty kill are a good foundation to build on, especially considering how they lacked all three elements for the first six weeks of the season.
