Champions League projections: Will Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool boost their top-eight chances? – The Athletic
We have reached the final Champions League week of the calendar year.
Things remain as tight as ever, with only three points separating second-placed Paris Saint-Germain from 14th-placed Galatasaray heading into the sixth matchweek of the league phase.
Plenty of twists and turns are likely, but now is the time for teams to secure their chances of a top-eight finish and avoid an extra two games in the last-16 play-off round (between 9th and 24th).
Using The Athletic’s projections — powered by Opta data — we pick out five key matches that might have a significant impact across the table this week.
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Bayern Munich vs Sporting CP (Tuesday 5:45pm GMT/12:45pm ET)
Bayern relinquished their perfect record in matchweek five, with a 3-1 loss to Arsenal, allowing Mikel Arteta’s side to pull away in the race for top spot.
You would strongly suspect Vincent Kompany’s men will get back to winning ways in their home game against Sporting CP, but the Portuguese champions have had a good campaign in Europe, currently sitting eighth in the league table after five games.
In truth, Sporting have had a fairly easy fixture list, with victories over Kairat Almaty, Marseille and Club Brugge boosting their qualification chances, but Rui Borges’ side have points on the board to put the pressure on the established elite.
Sporting will arrive in Germany off the back of a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Lisbon rivals Benfica at the weekend, and are undefeated in all competitions since their 2-1 loss to Napoli in the Champions League more than two months ago.
The difficulty is that Bayern’s defeat by Arsenal was their only one of the season, and they have been devastating going forward in the opening months of the campaign. Harry Kane’s hat-trick against Stuttgart made it 17 goals in 13 Bundesliga games, with Bayern having a goal difference of +40 in the league already. For context, the next highest is RB Leipzig on +15.
Per Opta’s model, Bayern have a 93 per cent chance of progressing straight into the round of 16. Still, with things so tight at the top of the table, a good result for Sporting would boost their own prospects, given their 18 per cent chances of automatic qualification and a tricky clash with Paris Saint-Germain coming up.
Bayern’s remaining fixtures: Union Saint-Gilloise (H), PSV (A)
Sporting CP’s remaining fixtures: PSG (H), Athletic Club (A)
Inter vs Liverpool (Tuesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
Inter are sitting pretty in fourth place with 12 points from their opening five games, even if their opening four clashes were against those in the lower echelons of the table (Ajax, Slavia Prague, Union Saint-Gilloise and Kairat).
A 2-1 loss to Atletico Madrid in gameweek five has halted their momentum, and upcoming fixtures against Liverpool, Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund will be bigger tests of their European credentials. Still, Cristian Chivu’s men have a 65 per cent chance of automatic progression to the round of 16 — the fifth-highest of all league-phase teams.
As it often has been, Inter’s strength lies in their defensive foundation, with just three goals conceded in Europe so far — only Arsenal (one) have conceded fewer. Last season’s finalists have won 10 of their past 11 Champions League group games at home, and will be brimming with confidence after a 4-0 thumping of Como at the weekend, placing them just one point behind leaders Napoli in Serie A.
For Liverpool, Tuesday’s game is now dominated by the remarks made by Mohamed Salah after their 3-3 draw with Leeds United last weekend, compounding the pressure on head coach Arne Slot, who has been unable to stem the flow of Liverpool’s leaky defence. Saturday’s draw made it 11 goals conceded in their past five games in all competitions, which is hardly the hallmark of reigning Premier League champions.
A 4-1 home loss to PSV Eindhoven undid a lot of hard work in climbing the Champions League table after a 1-0 victory over Real Madrid in gameweek four, with Liverpool 13th going into the final three league games.
A 29 per cent chance of a top-eight finish is good but not great, although an away victory at San Siro would go a long way to getting Slot’s European campaign back on track.
Inter remaining fixtures: Arsenal (H), Borussia Dortmund (A)
Liverpool remaining fixtures: Marseille (A), Qarabag (H)
Atalanta vs Chelsea (Tuesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
On paper, an away trip to Bergamo should be a straightforward task for Chelsea, given that Atalanta have posted four losses in their past five Serie A games.
New manager Raffaele Palladino arrived last month to halt the club’s downward spiral, although things look comparably positive in Europe with 10 points and just one loss from their opening five games — keeping a clean sheet in each of their past three matches.
With that return, Opta’s model gives them a less than one per cent chance of finishing in the bottom eight of the league and being eliminated, with a play-off position looking most likely for the Italian side (72 per cent chance).
The difficulty for Chelsea is that there is an inconsistency that has undermined their own progress at times this season. They showed they are capable of beating Barcelona in their last European game, but a 2-2 draw against Qarabag was as frustrating as the scoreline suggested.
Last week’s loss to Leeds United and Saturday’s goalless draw with Bournemouth mean Chelsea are not exactly in red-hot form, but an Opta-projected finish of 15 points should land them in the top-eight places to gain automatic qualification, which should not be scoffed at.
The Athletic’s simulated match prediction model suggests the most likely scoreline will be a 1-1 draw in Bergamo. With the week that Palladino and his Chelsea counterpart Enzo Maresca have had, you would suspect both would shake hands on that result.
Chelsea remaining fixtures: Pafos (H), Napoli (A)
Atalanta remaining fixtures: Athletic Club (H), Union SG (A)
Real Madrid vs Manchester City (Wednesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
One of the benefits of the new Champions League format is that you will regularly get league-phase clashes that would not be out of place in the latter stages of the tournament.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City is exactly that sort of game, with the pair facing each other for the fifth consecutive season. In raw terms, it is fifth versus ninth in the league standings, but just two points separate the sides, with City having the opportunity to leapfrog Madrid with a victory at the Bernabeu.
City have been quietly in the ascendancy in recent weeks, moving to just two points off top spot in the Premier League after a 3-0 victory over Sunderland. However, Pep Guardiola’s side will still give up chances this season, conceding four goals in their 5-4 victory over Fulham and losing 2-0 in their most recent Champions League tie, against Bayer Leverkusen.
A projected fifth-placed finish (16 points) should see City comfortably progress via the automatic spots, but that defensive vulnerability is likely why they still only have an eight per cent chance of winning the competition, per Opta’s model.
Real Madrid’s predicted chances are no better, with just a seven per cent likelihood of lifting the trophy next summer. Sitting second in La Liga, Xabi Alonso’s side have won just once in their past five league games, with a 2-0 home loss to Celta Vigo creating further tension in an already-fraught atmosphere at the Bernabeu.
Defensive injury struggles have not helped them in recent games, but Wednesday’s fixture has an added layer of importance to Alonso as he looks to get his new side back on track.
Per The Athletic’s match prediction model, a 1-1 draw looks the most likely based on how both sides have performed in Europe this season.
Real Madrid remaining fixtures: Monaco (H), Benfica (A)
Manchester City remaining fixtures: Bodo/Glimt (A), Galatasaray (H)
Juventus vs Pafos (Wednesday 8pm GMT/3pm ET)
Pafos have been one of the pleasant surprises of this year’s league phase, with one win, three draws and just a single loss giving them six points from their opening five games.
Aside from a 5-1 thumping by Bayern Munich, respectable draws with Olympiacos, Kairat and Monaco have kept the resilience high to sit alongside their victory over Villarreal, with 38-year-old David Luiz becoming the second-oldest Champions League goalscorer in their most recent clash in gameweek five.
Incidentally, Juventus have an identical record to the Cypriot champions coming into this game, meaning one team has the chance to pull away from the other with a victory this week. Unsurprisingly, it is Luciano Spalletti’s side who have the greater chance of progression from the league phase, with Opta’s model giving Juventus an 84 per cent chance of finishing in the play-off positions after gameweek eight.
Spalletti has injected plenty of optimism into the Juventus fanbase since he took over from Igor Tudor at the end of October. Up until a frustrating 2-1 loss to Napoli at the weekend, his side were undefeated under his leadership and will be looking to regain momentum in their home game on Wednesday.
Pafos’ 42 per cent chance of clinging to a play-off spot is not too promising, but if they can get an unlikely result in Turin, then it would continue the feel-good story of this year’s league phase campaign.
Juventus remaining fixtures: Benfica (H), Monaco (A)
Pafos remaining fixtures: Chelsea (A), Slavia Praha (H)
