There’s also what meteorologists would call a “perfect Christmas,” a term given to an instance of two centimetres or more of snowfall is on the ground, while fresh snow is actively falling during the morning on Dec. 25.
Historical data paints a picture
When reviewing a 26-year climate period, Iqaluit, Nvt., Whitehorse, Yukon, Yellowknife, N.W.T., Winnipeg, Man., and Kenora, Ont., have the highest, historical odds for a white Christmas.
On the other end, Vancouver, Victoria and Penticton, B.C., Toronto, Ont., and Halifax, N.S., have some of the lowest chances historically.
Some cities like Brandon, Man., Happy Valley-Goose Bay, N.L., and Quebec City, Que., have, historically speaking, more than a 90 per cent chance of seeing a white Christmas in any given year.
When comparing multiple datasets over a 30-year period, we see that Brandon, Iqaluit, St. John’s, N.L., Vancouver and Whitehorse likelihoods could change but it is not guaranteed.
Ultimately, though, the placement of cold Arctic air and plumes of moisture have to align perfectly to deliver a white or a perfect Christmas.
