Football betting tips: Champions League
Athletic Bilbao vs PSG (20;00)
1pt Jesus Areso to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Red card in the match at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
Benfica vs Napoli (20:00)
1pt Red card in the match at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Red card each team at 100/1 (William Hill)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Athletic Club vs PSG
I fully expect PSG to win comfortably here and was close to tipping PSG -1.0 Asian Handicap at 21/20, but we’ve got to take JESUS ARESO TO BE CARDED at 4/1 here.
Athletic Bilbao’s right-back isn’t the most prolific card collector, but he’ll be up against PSG’s tricky Georgian winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and we have a card-happy referee overseeing proceedings.
Kvaratskhelia has been fouled 1.8 times per 90 across all competitions this season and his opponent has been carded in four of his last six starts.
Areso has played just 182 minutes of Champions League action, with 78 of those coming against Newcastle’s tricky winger Anthony Gordon in a game the Spaniard picked up a card. He could be set for another here.
The referee here is Daniel Siebert and he has been mental this season in dishing out cards, and particularly the ones of a red variety. The German has averaged 4.69 cards per game but has shown six reds in 13 outings.
In five European contests this season, Siebert has flashed his RED CARD on four occasions, so given the referee appointment we have to chance another in this match at 11/2.
PSG’s games have seen plenty of reds of late, with all of their last three Champions League contests seeing at least one red. Across all competitions there has been a red card in five of PSG’s last six outings.
Bilbao aren’t as red-heavy, but they are in desperation mode, sitting 28th out of 36 on just four points from five games. They enter the sixth round of fixtures just two points off the top 24 though so still have a chance, but really need a result here and that could lean into them being overzealous.
Odds correct at 17:55 (09/12/25)
Benfica vs Napoli
We are getting to the business end of the Champions League league phase meaning the desperation levels are through the roof. The meeting of Benfica and Napoli in Lisbon is one such tie with huge importance for both teams.
Jose Mourinho’s Portuguese outfit have won one and lost four of their Champions League games for date, sitting 31st out of 36 teams, meaning they are in desperate need of a win to stand any chance of getting into the top 24. Antonio Conte’s Napoli are 20th after winning two and losing two and they can’t afford any slip-ups too.
So, with tensions high and desperation higher, emotions could get the better of some players on Wednesday, making the 11/2 about a RED CARD IN THE MATCH a decent value bet in my book.
Benfica’s last 21 games in all competitions have seen eight red cards including at the weekend, while Napoli’s five UCL games to date have seen two reds – both coming in their two away games.
The man in the middle for this one is Slavko Vincic, and he’s dished two reds in four Champions League games so far this season, with one of those involving Benfica.
In fact, the two times he’s reffed Benfica this calendar year he’s shown a red card. With the stakes high and this potentially being last-chance-saloon for the hosts, we can’t leave BOTH TEAMS RED CARD out of the staking plan at 100/1.
Vincic did flash a red for both teams once last season so has previous.
Odds correct at 17:55 (09/12/25)
Odds correct at 17:21 (09/12/25)
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