- FTSE 100 up 40 points at 9,682
- Anglo-Teck deal moves closer
- US Federal Reserve meeting at 7pm GMT
1.36pm: William Hill up for sale
Shares in William Hill owner Evoke PLC (LSE:EVOK) are up 8% after it confirmed that investment banks Morgan Stanley and Rothschild have been hired to look at putting all or part of the company up for sale.
A strategic review has been launched, the company said in a short statement, including “a range of potential alternatives to maximise shareholder value, including, but not limited to a potential sale of the Group, or some of the Company’s assets and/or business units”.
It said there was no certainty that a deal would materialise.
Shares in Evoke had plunged 70% since Rachel Reeves’ plans to hike taxes on the gambling sector were first reported in August.
Under changes announced in the autumn Budget, online gaming duty will rise to 40% from April, and a new 25% remote betting duty will apply to online sports betting, excluding horse-racing, from April 2027.
Evoke predicted an annualised increase in duty costs of £125-135 million, with £80 million of that in 2026.
12.49pm: Insurance M&A speculation
Potential bidders for Aegon UK business, which has been pushed into a strategic review as the Dutch group prepares to rebrand as Transamerica and shift its centre to the US, include Phoenix Group (LSE:PHNX), Aviva (LSE:AV.), Royal London, M&G (LSE:MNG) and Lloyds (LSE:LLOY).
All are seen as plausible trade buyers, says broker Panmure Liberum.
Legal & General is mentioned but viewed as a less likely participant. Private equity-backed operators are also expected to weigh up an offer.
The prize on offer is a substantial platform franchise. Aegon UK specialises in capital-light workplace and adviser-led savings, with £124 billion of assets under administration in those core segments and £226 billion across all UK activities.
12.09pm: Fasten your seatbelts for the Fed
The FTSE 100 us up 0.3% as the clock ticks past midday, outperforming other markets.
Chief peers across the Channel, such as the German DAX and France’s CAC, are down 0.3-0.4%.
Some analysts are pointing to the mood in Europe taking a knock after public criticism from Donald Trump, who labelled regional leaders “weak” in an interview published by Politico.
US futures are in the red too, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 seen falling around 0.1%, while futures for the more tech-heavy Nasdaq are down 0.2%.
This is the calm before the Fed, with yesterday’s session also being relatively quiet.
“In fact, all the majors have largely tracked sideways over the past fortnight as traders looked towards tonight’s interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve,” says market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation.
As said many times in recent days, markets have a 25bps cut from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee in today’s decision.
The FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is the key, with each committee member giving their forecasts for GDP, unemployment, inflation and the Fed Funds rate (aka ‘Dot Plot’).
The last Dot Plot, in September, saw most members expecting just one more 25bps cut next year.
“If that is the same tonight, then the markets would interpret a cut as ‘hawkish’, and that may not be viewed positively,” says Morrison.
Fed chief Jerome Powell will also hold a press conference after the meeting.
President Trump, meanwhile, says he has picked Powell’s replacement for when his term expires in May, widely thought to be Kevin Hassett, a supporter of the President and well-known dove.
“To many people’s surprise, Mr Hassett has turned more hawkish of late. This may be one of the reasons that Treasury yields have picked up recently,” says Morrison, channelling Bette Davis’s iconic character from All About Eve.
“Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy night!”
11.19am: Holding pattern
The FTSE 100 is the only one of the major European benchmarks in the green this morning, with Pearson, Scottish Mortgage and Berkeley Group topping the leaderboard.
Markets generally are in “a holding pattern” ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision later today, says market analyst Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell.
The FTSE 100 would be even higher if strength in basic materials was not being offset by weakness in utilities, retailers and the defence sector.
WPP is extending yesterday’s rally, which the analyst suggests is because “investors are fired up by takeover speculation or they’re taking the view that so much bad news around trading has now been priced into the stock, that the slightest bit of good news could spark a rally”.
Talking of takeovers, with shareholders approving the merger of Anglo American and Teck, next comes “the hard part”, Coatsworth says, of living up to its own hype.
“Big deals are notoriously value-destructive, either because management over-estimated cost synergies, culture clashes rear their ugly head, or financial returns fall short.”
Supporting the deal, Anglo Teck will be a big player in copper, where the outlook for the metal price is red hot.
“It just needs to be able to capitalise on the market opportunity and not be derailed by production issues, such as labour strikes, lower than expected ore grades or processing problems,” he says.
10.32am: London’s SpaceX investors get IPO rocket boost
Shares in Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and other trusts with sizeable stakes in SpaceX have been given some extra rocket fuel this morning on growing reports that the launch and satellite company will become the largest ever stock market listing next year.
Reports suggested the group founded by Elon Musk could be valued at around $1.5 trillion if it raises a planned $30 billion of new funds.
Scottish Mortgage, which owns a stake representing 7.6% of its portfolio, is up 2.7% today, while another SpaceX investor Schiehallion Fund (stake representing 9.4%) has jumped over 7%.
Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust and Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust, which have positions representing 11.25% and 13.3% of their portfolios, are both up around 2%.
9.46am: Dangers of social media ‘finfluencers’
With around 800,000 people reporting losing money to investments or pensions scams in the last year of recorded data, the UK financial watchdog has launched its ‘Firm Checker’ tool, designed to help consumers avoid scams.
As scammers make it difficult for victims to know if they are dealing with a legitimate company, the Financial Conduct Authority’s checker tool enables consumers to check if a firm is authorised and has the correct permissions to provide services.
The FCA found that most victims of fraud or unauthorised consumer investments or pensions-related fraud heard about it on social media or via a telephone call, followed by text or a Whatsapp message.
“Ruthless fraudsters are constantly evolving their tactics so they can steal money from innocent victims,” said Sheree Howard, executive director of authorisations at the FCA.
“Whether you’re considering an investment, pension opportunity, loan or other financial service, use Firm Checker to confirm the firm is authorised and help fight financial crime.’
Meanwhile, separate research has found that TikTok and Instagram ‘finfluencers’ can add to pressure on people to invest in things quickly, and often these investments don’t go well.
A poll of around 2,000 investors by Barclays found that 24% feel pressured to act quickly on unsolicited advice from influencers, with 42% of those who have acted on influencer investment tips admitting to losing money as a result.
The bank said that while influencers can often help build confidence for those new to investing, “the aspirational lifestyle projected by certain content creators can persuade their audience that they can achieve the same financial success – even when they know it might be too good to be true.”
Emotions such as greed and FOMO are used by finfluencers to encourage people to act, respondents felt, with 53% of those using social media for investment guidance generally not carrying out checks to verify the reliability of content they see.
Among Gen Z investors (ie those in late teens, early to mid 20s), 58% say they are more inclined to follow investment tips from influencers who appear to have made a lot of money.
To help them distinguish between fact and fiction, 61% of investors polled said they would welcome the introduction of a verification system for ‘finfluencers’, to help them identify genuine accounts and guidance.
8.55am: Berkeley profits growth ‘impressive’
Berkeley Group shares are up 2%, with analyst Charlie Campbell at Stifel saying the first-half performance was “impressive”, with profits before tax beating consensus by 2% with margin up 60 basis points.
House sales declined 4% to 2,022, which is a bit worse than the consensus forecast of 2,081, with selling prices down 5% due to sales mix, which was slightly worse than expected.
Management left the outlook unchanged for 2026 and 2027.
Campbell notes that Berkeley is starting to establish a build-to-rent portfolio, which “should create value as it will achieve better prices by holding units until rents mature” but comes at a short-term cost to returns, with first rental units are expected from spring 2026.
8.20am: Blue-chips in the green
And we’re off. It seems these days the spread-betting firms are wrong more often than they are right.
After predicting a dour day, the FTSE 100 confounded expectations (and bucked the trend on the Continent), to open 19 points higher at 9,660.95. Go figure.
Leading the pack early on was WPP, up 3%, as bargain hunters stocked up ahead of Christmas. Either that, or there’s a broker note out there…. We’ll get more on that later.
7.59am: Creation of Anglo Teck moves closer
This morning, Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) confirmed that its shareholder and those of Teck Resources have backed the proposed “merger of equals”, paving the way for the creation of Anglo Teck.
Completion of the merger still remains subject to regulatory approvals in Canada and from authorities in other jurisdictions.
Anglo held its meeting yesterday, where shareholders passed both the ordinary and special resolutions relating to the merger. Teck shareholders also approved the deal at a special meeting held the same day.
The new group will be headquartered in Canada and will be one of the five largest copper producers in the world, with more than 70% exposure to copper.
7.41am: Berkeley ‘on track’
Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG) said it is “on track” to hit full-year targets after reporting a 7.8% fall in first half revenue and 7.7% fall in profits.
The FTSE 100 housebuilder cut operating costs 6% but revenues shrank to £1.18 billion from £1.28 billion, as 2,022 homes were sold across London and the South-East, compared to 2,103 last time, with the average selling price falling to £570,000 from £600,000, which was said to reflect the mix of properties sold.
Executive chair Rob Perrins called it a “highly creditable performance [that] reflects exceptional operational execution in a very challenging macro-economic and regulatory environment”.
He reiterated the pre-tax profit guidance of £450 million for the full year and a similar level for the 2027 financial year.
7.24am: The Fed meeting and why it matters not just in the US
Here’s an explanation of the big idea that’s governing financial markets this week, from Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote.
“Everybody knows the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce a 25bp rate cut today. I know it, you know it, he/she/it knows it, my five-year-old knows it, my cat, your dog, the birds in the sky. Everyone knows the Fed is lowering rates later today.”
Markets are pricing roughly an 88% probability, but what is not so certain is what Fed members are thinking about next year, how many cuts each anticipates will be shown in the ‘dot plot’, but also, says Ozkardeskaya, “whether their projections will convince markets to react accordingly”.
She says the doves’ case for rate cuts is clear: a softer US labour market, an absence so far of tariff-led pressures on inflation. and political noise from Donald Trump to cut rates.
Kevin Hassett, one of Trump’s favourite candidates to lead the Fed next year, said yesterday that the rise of AI gives the Fed an opportunity to run easier policy because lower rates could lift both aggregate supply and demand. Higher supply, he argues, could help contain inflation.
“Others think it may be wiser to pause for thought. AI-driven productivity gains are real. But looming inflation risks from tariffs still require a careful playbook — particularly if AI-driven disinflation doesn’t materialise fast enough to neutralize potential tariff-led inflation.”
The good news, says Ozkardeskaya, is that “investors aren’t walking into this meeting blindly”, with money markets having already trimmed their expectations two cuts next year, down from two-to-four before, reducing the risk of a sharp reaction to a ‘hawkish cut’.
“Judging by yields, the message from investors is clear: they’re not buying the dovish narrative.
“Instead, investors worry that lower yields could revive inflation and ultimately prevent the Fed from cutting more — or even force a hike. The proof: the US 10-year yield has climbed since the Fed began cutting in September.
“This disconnect between Fed policy and market yields suggests lower policy rates are not fully transmitting.
“No matter what Fed officials think, markets remain worried about inflation. They won’t absorb lower policy rates until they see evidence of inflation falling. That dynamic could prevent the S&P 500 from pushing higher into year-end.”
Ozkardeskaya notes that global central banks winds are turning hawkish, as well, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) saying this week it debated an “extended pause or a hike,” the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hold today, but markets are almost fully pricing a hike by late 2026, on the back of strong Canadian labour data and Canadian 10-year yields have risen from around 3% to near 3.50%.
At the European Central Bank (ECB) no cut is expected next year, and Isabel Schnabel said this week she’s comfortable with market pricing that the ECB’s next move could be a hike. The European 10-year yield is now around 2.85%, up from ~2.50% in October.
And the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to hike next week.
“The Japanese 10-year is flirting with 2%, raising the risk of Japanese pension funds and insurers — major US Treasury holders — repatriating capital back home, and pull the rug from under the feet of US treasuries.
“Consequently, even though equity investors still debate whether the tech sector is in bubble territory, global bond investors have little doubt about two things: DM debt is unsustainably high, and central bank expectations are shifting hawkish. The latter pushes the yields higher.
“And if yields continue pushing higher, valuations will come under pressure – especially for highly leveraged companies.
“So, today’s reaction to the Fed will likely set the tone for the remainder of the year: will Santa bring gifts, or stay snowed out? Answer in a few hours.”
7.15am: FTSE 100 and European indices called lower, Fed meeting awaited
The FTSE 100 has been called 36 points lower ahead of Wednesday’s open, in line with expected declines for other European indices.
Yesterday, the London benchmark finished the day just below the flatline, down 3 points at 9,642.
US stocks were mixed overnight, with the Dow Jones slipping 0.4%, weighed down by a 4% drop for JPMorgan after a warning that costs could rise next year amid credit card competition and increased AI spending.
The S&P 500 was relatively flat, down just 0.1%, while the Nasdaq nudged 0.1% higher and the Russell 2000 small-cap index climbed 0.2% to a fresh record high.
US futures are flat this morning, while Asian stocks are mixed, but little moved.
