Today, December 10, 2025, is a day to watch because mortgage rates have seen a slight bump upward, influenced by Treasury yields as we all brace for the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement. While we’re not seeing massive swings, this subtle shift is a good reminder that things in the housing market are always moving, and understanding why is key.
For many homeowners and prospective buyers, the hope is always for lower rates, and today’s modest rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.14% (according to Zillow) might feel like a small step back. The 15-year fixed rate held steady at 5.53%. This slight upturn is directly linked to what’s happening with the 10-year Treasury yield, which influences how lenders price their mortgages.
Investors are keenly watching what Fed Chair Jerome Powell might say about interest rate cuts and the long-term outlook for inflation. It’s like watching a weather forecast – you know the conditions can change quickly!
Today’s Mortgage Rates, Dec 10: Rates Move Higher as Markets Brace for Fed Decision
Current Mortgage Rates
Let’s break down what this means specifically. Zillow’s data for today, December 10, 2025, shows us the following national averages:
Loan Type
Interest Rate
30‑year fixed
6.14%
20‑year fixed
6.03%
15‑year fixed
5.53%
5/1 ARM
6.19%
7/1 ARM
6.30%
30‑year VA
5.56%
15‑year VA
5.16%
5/1 VA
5.45%
(These are national averages, rounded.)
As you can see, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has nudged up by seven basis points. The 15-year fixed remains steady. It’s interesting to note how the 5/1 and 7/1 Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) are currently higher than the 30-year fixed, which is a bit unusual and definitely worth considering if you’re weighing your options.
Current Refinance Rates
If you’re looking to refinance, the picture is slightly different. Here’s a look at refinance rates as reported by Zillow today:
Loan Type
Interest Rate
30‑year fixed
6.22%
20‑year fixed
6.18%
15‑year fixed
5.68%
5/1 ARM
6.59%
7/1 ARM
6.93%
30‑year VA
5.72%
15‑year VA
5.47%
5/1 VA
5.42%
Generally, refinance rates tend to track purchase rates, but sometimes they can be a little higher or lower depending on market conditions and lender appetite. Today, it seems refinance rates are slightly higher across the board for fixed options compared to purchase rates. This means that if you were hoping to significantly lower your monthly payment by refinancing, you’ll want to do your homework and compare offers carefully. Borrowers with older mortgages carrying much higher rates might still find value, but for those with rates closer to today’s averages, the savings might be less dramatic.
What Does the Fed Decision Mean for My Mortgage Rate?
This is the million-dollar question, isn’t it? Today is the final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2025, and the chatter among economists and traders is loud: a 0.25% interest rate cut is widely expected. This would bring the federal funds rate target down to a new range of 3.50%-3.75%. Futures traders are giving it a very high probability, around 90%. This would be the Fed’s third cut this year, signaling continued concern about the economy, particularly the cooling labor market which has seen over 1.1 million jobs cut this year.
Now, here’s where it gets a bit nuanced. The Fed controls the federal funds rate, which is what banks charge each other for overnight loans. This directly impacts things like credit cards and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). However, mortgage rates, especially for fixed-rate loans, are long-term loans. They are more closely tied to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.
Think of it this way: the market is already anticipating this Fed cut. When expectations become widespread, they often get “priced in” to current rates. This means the announcement of the cut itself might not cause a massive drop in mortgage rates. It’s like knowing a sale is coming – you might wait for it, but if everyone else is also waiting, the initial prices might already reflect that future discount.
What could really move the needle today is the Fed’s messaging. Many analysts are predicting a “hawkish cut.” This sounds like a contradiction, but it means the Fed might indeed lower rates, but they’ll also signal that this might be a pause, or they’ll express concern about inflation still being above their 2% target. If Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference hints at future rate hikes or a slower pace of cuts due to inflation worries, this could actually push those 10-year Treasury yields up, and consequently, mortgage rates could see another slight uptick, or at least hold steady rather than fall.
Key take-aways from the Fed meeting:
- The decision: Expected a 0.25% rate cut.
- Timing: Announcement today at 2:00 p.m. ET, press conference with Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- Impact on Mortgages: Indirect. Fixed mortgage rates follow long-term Treasury yields, not the federal funds rate directly.
- “Hawkish Cut” Scenario: Fed cuts rates, but signals concerns about inflation, potentially leading to stable or slightly rising mortgage rates.
- ARM Loans: Adjustable-Rate Mortgages are more directly tied to short-term rates (like SOFR), so they might see a more immediate effect from the federal funds rate change.
Personal Thoughts and Expertise
From my experience working in this space, I’ve learned that trying to perfectly time the market based on Fed announcements is a risky game. While a Fed cut is generally seen as positive for borrowers, the ripple effect on mortgage rates isn’t always a straight line down. The bond market is incredibly sophisticated and forward-looking. If investors believe future economic growth will be strong and inflation might persist, they’ll demand higher yields on bonds, which translates to higher mortgage rates for us.
Today’s slight uptick is likely the market digesting all this information – the incoming economic data, the ongoing discussions about inflation, and the anticipation of the Fed’s move. For borrowers, my advice remains consistent:
- Know Your Numbers: Understand your credit score, your debt-to-income ratio, and how much you can comfortably afford.
- Shop Around: Don’t just get one quote. Compare offers from multiple lenders. Even a small difference in rate can save you tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan.
- Consider Your Time Horizon: If you plan to sell in a few years, an ARM might be attractive. If you’re buying your forever home, a fixed rate offers predictability.
- Lock When Ready: If you find a rate you’re comfortable with and your lender offers a rate lock, consider using it, especially if you anticipate volatility. Don’t let the “what ifs” prevent you from securing a good deal for your situation.
While the news today is about slight adjustments, the underlying trends – like inflation concerns and economic growth – are what truly shape the mortgage market over the longer term. Stay informed, do your due diligence, and you’ll be well-positioned to make the right move for your financial future.
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