LeBron James turned back the clock on Sunday in the Los Angeles Lakers’ win against the Philadelphia 76ers, scoring 29 points, including some clutch buckets down the stretch, to move L.A. to 17-6 this season.
The No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, the Lakers have a massive NBA Cup Quarterfinal matchup with the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night. San Antonio is coming off a win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday, and it’s just a game back of the Lakers in the standings despite sitting in the No. 5 seed.
San Antonio got Stephon Castle back on Monday night, but they won’t have star Victor Wembanyama – who practiced on Sunday – in this game due to a calf strain. He’s listed as out and may be up in the air for Saturday’s NBA Cup Semifinal if the Spurs advance.
The Lakers recently got Luka Doncic back from paternity leave on Sunday against the 76ers, and that’s a major reason why they’re favored at home in this game. L.A. is 7-3 at home and 12-4 against the Western Conference, beating the Spurs by two points at home back on Nov. 5.
So, which of these teams should we bet on with a trip to the NBA Cup Semifinals on the line?
Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Wednesday’s Western Conference battle.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Spurs Injury Report
Lakers Injury Report
Lakers Best NBA Prop Bet
In today’s best NBA prop bets for SI Betting, I shared why Doncic could have a big game as a passer against this Spurs defense:
This season, Luka Doncic is averaging 9.1 assists on 14.4 potential assists per game, and he may be undervalued on Wednesday with this prop set right around his season average.
As I mentioned in the LeBron prop, the Spurs rank just 21st in the NBA in opponent assists per game, and Doncic torched them for 13 assists back on Nov. 5. Overall, the All-NBA guard has nine games with over 8.5 assists, including eight games with at least 10 dimes.
While Doncic may have less playmaking responsibilities with James back in action, the Lakers are still extremely reliant on the star guard. Doncic has the highest usage rate in the NBA – 38.1 percent – which happens to be a career-high. So, the ball is going to be in his hands a ton in this matchup.
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking the Spurs to cover as underdogs:
The San Antonio Spurs have moved from 4.5-point underdogs to 7.5-point underdogs in this game with Victor Wembanyama out, but I think that line movement is a little bit of an overreaction.
Yes, Wemby is a special, special player, but the Spurs have fared pretty well without him as of late, going 8-3 straight up and improving to 5-3 against the spread as underdogs.
San Antonio has a net rating of +2.1 over this 11-game stretch while posting the No. 7 offense in the NBA. The area where the Spurs have struggled is on defense without the star center’s rim protection. San Antonio is just 22nd in defensive rating during that stretch, but the Spurs have done enough on offense to still win eight games
I’m not sure they’ll pull off an upset against a solid Lakers team in this matchup, but L.A. has had defensive issues of its own, ranking 21st in the league in defensive rating for the entire season.
The Lakers are 8-4 against the spread as favorites, but they’ve only posted an average scoring margin of +5.1 points in those games. They knocked off the Spurs by just two points at home earlier this season, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game within two possessions on Wednesday night.
Let’s take advantage of the few extra points we’re getting with Wemby set to miss a 12th game in a row.
Pick: Spurs +7.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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