Nevada’s Gaming Control Board has issued a warning to gaming companies not to affiliate themselves with Kalshi’s sports prediction markets, despite the operator appealing a ruling that stated it must follow Nevada gaming rules.
The state has a long history of being one of the world’s top gambling destinations, and is the leading state in the US in terms of casino revenue. In 2024, Nevada casino GGR totalled over $15.5 billion, more than double its closest competitor, Pennsylvania.
While the state boasts more than 230 casinos, it lacks an online casino industry, resulting in consumers exploring offshore alternatives. Industry insights show us that offshore online casinos are a popular option across the US, even in states with licensed operations, with consumers able to access a wider choice of games and deals.
The state does allow online sports betting, and has moved to remind operators that they are not permitted to offer sports prediction markets or have any affiliation with the firms offering them. This comes after a federal ruling that backed the Nevada Gaming Control Board in its efforts to prohibit Kalshi from operating in its jurisdiction.
Khalsi is federally regulated and offers a variety of futures markets, making it possible for users to trade contracts regarding the outcome of events as mundane as politics and the weather, to more exciting markets like crypto values and sports results.
Futures betting is a market that allows bettors to predict future events, like who will win the Super Bowl or their respective conference. Many sportsbooks will offer these types of markets, but Kalshi’s platform operates differently, which is why it is regulated at the federal level by the CFTC.
Kalshi provides a platform for users to buy or sell contracts that have different outcomes, rather than allowing them to place a bet. These contracts represent yes or no outcomes, such as ‘will the Kansas City Chiefs win the Super Bowl?’. Contracts are priced up to $1, with this system working on a percentage system. For example, if the market believes there is a 45% chance that the Kansas City Chiefs will win the Super Bowl, the ‘yes’ contract will be priced at $0.45.
The payout of these contracts is $1, meaning that if someone bought a contract for the Kansas City Chiefs at this value, they would receive $1, representing a $0.55 profit. If the contract choice is unsuccessful, the customer walks away with nothing.
It argues that because it works under the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), it differs from traditional sports books and should not fall under the same legislation in Nevada. Rather than offering betting markets, this is described as individual trades without a house taking its cut. Trades are carried out by users, and it is argued that this format provides a simplified and more transparent way of backing an event.
The peer-to-peer nature of this market helps users bypass state laws, and because it is CFTC-regulated, consumers can also feel secure in the knowledge that transactions are legal.
Nevada is not alone in this opinion, with various disputes across different states taking place. Kalshi had already enjoyed success over New Jersey, but Nevada’s victory, and a similar result in Maryland, could see the Garden State renew efforts alongside Ohio, which is also planning legal action to stop its operations.
The Nevada Gaming Control Board’s victory has seen it issue a statement to operators to cease partnerships with sports futures market providers, despite Kalshi filing an appeal. Agreements have already been reached with some licensees, including Robinhood, which has agreed to cease prediction markets in Nevada while the appeal goes through the relevant channels.
Nevada’s sports betting market generates an annual handle of around $8 billion, a GGR of almost $500 million, and taxes of more than $30 million.
The state’s 12 online sports betting operators are responsible for generating around double that of the 54 retail operators, and it is not known how this will affect the market as yet.
Nevada’s influence on the US gambling industry as a whole, despite state autonomy, could prove instrumental, with most authorities across the 39 states with licensed sports betting excluding prediction markets from legislation.
While the main issue at present appears to be whether the market should be allowed, there is a larger issue regarding the fragmented nature of US betting regulations. Kalshi argues that its operations fall exclusively under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but Las Vegas Federal Court’s Chief Judge Andrew Gordon explained his decision supported the rights of the state and tribal operations.
He claimed the decision was in the best interest of the Nevada public and that strict licensing standards and comprehensive legislation are in place to protect consumers.
An attempt by Kalshi to halt the ruling until their appeal is heard will be vigorously opposed by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, according to chairman Mike Dreitzer.
Despite the current confusion and disruption caused by this decision, Nevada has had some good news in recent months with the reopening of the Caesars Republic Lake Tahoe following its rebrand from the Harveys Lake Tahoe and $160 million renovation. While Nevada is not short of casinos, renovating existing operations gives them a boost, increases employment opportunities, and can improve the visitor experience immeasurably.
All aspects of the resort have been elevated to combine a five-star resort with its high-quality gaming. The facility now boasts 740 beautifully decorated guest rooms, a glass-framed hotel tower to make the most of the alpine views, and various wonderful dining facilities.
Gordan Ramsey brings his Michelin-star quality food to the resort, while visitors can also explore the villas and suites on offer, with butler service also available.
Nevada and Lake Tahoe are already popular tourist destinations for a variety of reasons, and the combination of casino resorts is something that appeals to many.
The future of gambling in Nevada has never been in doubt, but with investment into existing land-based operations and legal disputes about online markets, it looks like it will be interesting.
