Will Northern Ireland have a white Christmas? And why the notion became such a common theme after ‘little ice age’
Forecasters have dashed hopes for those yearning for snow on December 25.
Although it is still too early to know for sure, the Met Office has predicted a ‘wet and windy’ Christmas here.
Jonathan Vautrrey, a meteorologist with the Met Office, said: “It looks like we might experience some west to southwest winds, so that would generally lead to a fairly continued pattern of what we’ve had recently.
“That low pressure system, pushing its way in with some more wet and windy weather – that usually tends to bring slightly above average temperatures for this time of year, which would probably go against a white Christmas.”
Horses in the hills of Belfast close to Hannahstown during snowy and frosty weather on November 20 (Photo by Kevin Scott)
He explained that white Christmases are actually much less common than some might think – despite being a common theme in many festive scenes.
“I think a lot of the pictures people would associate with white Christmases originate from Charles Dickens’ stories,” he added.
“And that is because he lived during what we term as ‘the little ice age’ where we had a spell of quite cold weather. When he was around, the Thames kept freezing over and people would go ice-skating on the river.
“So he lived in much colder conditions than we would be used to.
“Naturally, we could have come out of the little ice age stage but we’ve also seen overall global warming as a result of human-induced impact and the industrial revolution and everything from that onwards.
“And those two conditions combined have generally meant that our temperatures have been going up since the Dickens period and so the chances of snow are generally decreasing as we have seen in recent years.”
However, for those banking on a White Christmas – and it is a popular novelty bet each year – all hope is not lost, as Mr Vautrrey explained.
“A White Christmas is actually defined as a single snowflake falling somewhere in the UK,” he said.
“To speak in technical terms, we could have a White Christmas if one single flake falls somewhere in the Shetlands – this means the UK can have a White Christmas without everywhere in the UK experiencing snow.”
Despite the Met Office not having high hopes for a snowstorm at Christmas, Mr Vautrrey mentioned Northern Ireland and Scotland as the most likely areas to experience snow in the UK.
“Obviously, Northern Ireland is going to experience colder temperatures than England. I would say maybe, you might see some ice or snow on higher ground, but I think overall that wind and rain is going to keep overall temperatures too high.
“If I had to say the most likely place for snow, I’d probably say somewhere in the highlands of Scotland, but again it is just slightly too early to make any full estimations.”
Snow in Antrim on November 19 (Luke Jervis/ Belfast Telegraph)
News Catch Up – Thursday 11 December
Mr Vautrrey said the overall temperature in Northern Ireland has been higher this year than previously.
“Overall, December has seen higher temperatures than on average. We had that cold snap in November that brought down the average slightly, but overall temperatures have been higher,” he added.
