The first measurable snowfall of the winter of 2025-26 evidently is all but a done deal for Philly this weekend, and it has a chance to be the biggest in two winters — not that the bar is ultra-high in a period when snow has been mightily lacking.
The National Weather Service late Friday was listing a 95% likelihood of at least an inch of snow. The latest snow map forecast painted 3 inches for most of the region.
While that was in line with the AccuWeather Inc. outlook, the total might be a “little bit” higher, “especially from the city south and east,” said senior meteorologist Matt Benz.
The weather service has a 40% chance of 4 inches in the immediate Philly area, which would surpass the 3.1 inches that accumulated on Feb. 11-12, an amount that disappeared in a hurry. That would not be the case this time.
With the caveat that timing and duration of precipitation aren’t in the wheelhouse of atmospheric science, the weather service is expecting snow or snow mixed with rain to start late Saturday night.
If it’s a mix at the outset it would quickly become all snow as temperatures fall below freezing, and continue into midmorning.
The snow would be generated primarily by an upper-air disturbance, said Benz. It’s possible that the storm may regroup off the coast, however, that “probably will form too late to have any impact.”
In a forecast discussion, the weather service said inch-an-hour snowfall rates are possible early Sunday.
“There is a potential for a concentrated area of 4-5 inches of snowfall somewhere near the I-95 corridor and immediately south and east,” the forecasters said.
They noted a 20% to 30% chance that some places get over 5 inches.
And the snow is likely to stick around until at least midweek, with high temperatures Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday expected to be around freezing or lower and the sun angles about as low as they get.
After that February storm, the temperature climbed to near 50 a day later, and the strengthening sun made quick work of the snow cover.
That February snow turned out to be the biggest of a season in which the 8.1-inch total at Philadelphia International Airport barely bested the 8 inches of New Orleans. That winter, the I-95 corridor found itself in a snow hole, and Philly a snow hole within a snow hole. The highest total in the winter of 2023-24 was 4.6 inches during a snowy January week.
Last season, snow fell to the north, west, and south, and that trend has continued in the early going. With 6 inches so far this winter, Richmond, Va., now has measured 22.8 inches since last December, nearly triple the Philly total.
Official totals at Philadelphia International Airport have been less than half of normal for four consecutive winters. The normal for a season is 23.2 inches.
The meteorological winter, which began Dec. 1, certainly is off to a wintry start, with temperatures averaging more than 6 degrees below normal.
It is not off to a particularly wet start, however, and whatever falls this weekend isn’t expected to exceed a half inch of liquid.
In its long-term outlooks through Dec. 26, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is on the fence regarding whether precipitation will be above or below normal.
With high confidence it is calling for a national warm-up.
In any given year, the odds are greatly against Christmas snow in Philly or elsewhere along the I-95 corridor.
But it does look like the region is about to get a white Sunday.
