The odds are almost always stacked against a white Christmas around here, but it is looks like the region will experience a white Dec. 14.
The National Weather Service on Friday said Philadelphia was all but certain to get at least an inch of snow during the weekend, with a general 2 to 4 inches expected, said Joe DeSilva, a meteorologist in the Mount Holly office.
The weather service issued a winter-weather advisory for the entire region from 7 p.m. Saturday through 1 p.m. Sunday.
A storm forming along an Arctic front combined with a strung idsturbance in the upper atmosphere were forecast to begin shaking out snowflakes very late Saturday night or early Sunday. It’s possible that the snow may be mixed with rain, at least at the outset, especially south and east of the city.
And while this may be shocking, computer models continue to tweak outcomes, leaving “still a little bit of uncertainty how this low is going to track,” said DeSilva’s colleague Eric Hoeflich.
However, recent model runs overall have been a shade more bullish on snow amounts than they had been, and the U.S. model has bumped up amounts slightly, said DeSilva.
Timing and duration issues remained to be resolved, and snow could cause commuting issues in the morning. In addition to church-goers, tail-gaters will be commuting commuting to the Eagles game at Lincoln Financial Field in South Philly, and supermarkets typically experience brisk traffic in the run-up to Eagles’s games.
The snow, however, is forecast to end well before kickoff at the Linc, scheduled for 1:15 p.m., DeSilva said.
Some flakes were evident Thursday in the region, with Philadelphia International Airport, where winds gusted past 30 mph, reporting its third “trace” of the season.
The renegade flakes were flying from lake-effect snows, said Bill Deger, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.
The winds have shut off, and both Friday and Saturday were expected to be tranquil with daytime temperatures mostly in the 30s.
And this time, that holiday least-favorite, the “wintry mix,” wouldn’t be in the mix.
How much snow for Philly?
AccuWeather Inc. was calling for up to 3 inches.
If the storm is a quick mover, expect the inch, but if slows down and ripens a bit, it could be as much as 3, said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Bill Deger.
The weather service was pretty much on board with that estimate.
It painted 3 nches for Philly on its Friday morning snow map.
One near-certainty: This will change.
What time would the snow start?
It is likely to begin very late Saturday night or very early Sunday and continue until mid- or late morning, forecasters say.
Temperatures throughout the day are not expected to get past 30, with wind chills in the teens.
It might feel even colder if the Eagles lose to the lowly Las Vegas Raiders.
Regardless, everyone should be able to make it home.
“We’re not talking a major snowstorm,” Hoeflich said.
But this would be something a little bit different compared with recent local snow history.
Hoeflich noted that, as happened last winter, generous snow has fallen to the north, south, and west, leaving “a giant snow hole” over the Philadelphia area.
“It looks like that’s going to change.”
