‘He could be hard to beat’ – December Gold Cup rider Dylan Johnston joins our panel as Cheltenham leads a big weekend
It’s December Gold Cup (1.50) day at Cheltenham. Who wins the big one?
Richard Hoiles, commentator The stiffer test of the New course may help Hoe Joly Smoke reverse Paddy Power form with Vincenzo. Even though it didn’t look the classiest renewal, Panic Attack gave the form a boost at Newbury. Hoe Joly Smoke made mistakes at a crucial stage when closing and is a couple of pounds better off.
Dylan Johnston, jockey I’m probably biased but Vincenzo. He’s in great form and has probably come on for his run in the Paddy Power a little bit. Our biggest danger would be Kim Roque as he looks unexposed, and I’ll be keeping an eye on him throughout the race.
James Stevens, West Country I’m still strong on Jagwar. He looks a potential Grade 1 horse this season and I think the handicapper has got hold of most of these. Jagwar’s mark of 148 could massively underestimate his ability. Hoe Joly Smoke is the main danger.
Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor It’s a good race and, while Jagwar is the one to beat, he might just struggle to give 20lb to Kim Roque. He was making his debut for Joseph O’Brien, and having his first start for 141 days, when second at this course last month and travelled like the winner before a mistake at the last cost him any chance. He still finished strongly afterwards and can improve from that.
Kim Roque (left) jumps the final fence at Cheltenham last monthCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)
Robbie Wilders, tipster I’ve been on Kim Roque for a fortnight or so before the final field sliced up, but there’s no need to back him again and would be tempted by Jagwar now. I suspect they’re the only two horses with the capacity to win this by a wide margin and Jagwar is trading at around 20-1 for the Ryanair. He has a superb record in intermediate trip handicap chases and will need to go close off 148 if lofty ambitions are to be realised.
Who else takes your eye on ITV at Cheltenham?
Richard Hoiles, commentator Dan Skelton could have a good day and Theonewedreamof in the mares’ handicap chase (1.15) comes from a very strong form race at Chepstow, which has produced four next-time-out winners. She was one of them when scoring at Exeter and a 5lb rise does not look harsh.
Dylan Johnston, jockey Carlenrig for Dan Skelton in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (3.00). He chased home a good horse of ours in Rocking Man at Chepstow last time and we like that horse quite a lot. I felt he must be pretty useful to get as close as he did. I thought Carlenrig would take a bit of beating when he ran next time, but this is a better race.
James Stevens, West Country Jubilee Alpha in the last (3.35). I felt she would have won the Paul and Richard Barber Memorial last month if she hadn’t fluffed her lines at two out and I expect her to improve for that run. Cheltenham will also suit her better and Paul Nicholls’s horses have tended to step forward significantly from their first run to their second.
Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor Greyval looks certain to run well in the 2m4½f mares’ handicap chase (1.15). She finished fifth in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on her last hurdles start, and that race has thrown up four subsequent winners, who have won seven times between them since. Greyval made a promising chasing debut when second at Huntingdon last month and is 1-1 at this course.
Robbie Wilders, tipster Carlenrig is interesting on his second start for Dan Skelton in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (3.00). He was unsuited by the way the race unfolded on his first run for this top yard at Chepstow, but made nice late headway under Harry Skelton behind an odds-on favourite who controlled a slowly run race from the front over 2m3½f. A 3m point-to-point winner, he’ll relish a return to that distance.
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Give us another to watch on the Cheltenham card
Richard Hoiles, commentator One Horse Town in the opener (12.10) has taken really well to jumping and has an uncomplicated run style. I much prefer that form line to Minella Study’s Wetherby win. Given the juvenile division can often lack depth, it seems far easier to run up sequences than in years gone by.
Dylan Johnston, jockey The Jukebox Kid in the novice limited handicap chase (12.40). Ben Pauling’s horses are flying and he looked like a nice progressive horse last season. He won nicely around Carlisle after switching to fences and he could be hard to beat.
James Stevens, West Country The ground has come right for David’s Well, so he’d be my main fancy in the 2m½f handicap chase (2.25). The Chris Gordon-trained runner was impressive on his return at Haydock and looks to have loads more potential. The track is a bit of an unknown but I think he’ll handle it, and Harry Cobden is an obvious plus.
David’s Well: unbeaten over fencesCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)
Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor It’s worth taking on Conman John in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (3.00) with Carlenrig. He is a 3m point winner who looked in need of further when second on his hurdling debut at Chepstow last month, when the front two pulled 14 lengths clear of the third. That was over 2m3½f and an extra half-mile here looks certain to bring improvement.
Robbie Wilders, tipster I’m sweet on David’s Well in the 2m½f handicap chase (2.25). David’s Well broke the track record when winning on his return at Haydock and can handle a step up in grade in his search for a four-timer. That proved his ability to go on a quicker surface and he’ll go close if building on that reappearance with Harry Cobden, who is 32 per cent for the stable (£8.75 level-stakes profit), aboard.
Who should we look out for on ITV at Doncaster?
Richard Hoiles, commentator Lanesborough in the 2m½f handicap hurdle (3.17) is a horse who I expect to have a good season. He has been absent since February and is down in trip, but the race looks like being run at a decent gallop. However he fares here he is definitely one to keep an eye on during this campaign.
Dylan Johnston, jockey Alcedo for Venetia Williams in the 3m handicap chase (2.05). Her horses are starting to come into form and I thought he rallied really gamely after making a bad mistake at Newcastle. He looked to have a bit up his sleeve, so it’d be no surprise if he followed that up.
Venetia Williams: coming into formCredit: Chris Fairweather/Huw Evans Agency
James Stevens, West Country Doncaster caused some lively debate on the Racing Postcast, so make sure to check that out. I like Hurricane Bay in the 3m handicap chase (2.05). He ran well behind a smart horse in Moon Rocket over the course and distance last time and that was his first start since wind surgery. He looks competitively handicapped with the potential for improvement.
Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor Prince Zaltar (2.05) bumped into Kikijo when second in a 3m handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last month and the form was franked by the winner, who won again at Sandown last week. There should be more to come from Prince Zaltar, who is having only his fourth start since joining Dan Skelton, and the return to fences should suit this Irish chase winner.
Robbie Wilders, tipster Lanesborough in the 2m½f handicap hurdle (3.17). He was progressive at the start of the year, turning in form figures of 122 in the three handicaps he ran in, and a revised mark of 116 appeals. He made his rules debut only a year ago and can do better in his second season. I have a feeling we may see him in stronger races before long.
And away from the ITV action?
Richard Hoiles, commentator Max Comley made his name in the point-to-point sphere but is making a good fist of training under rules and A Great Excuse should strip fitter for his Ffos Las fourth at Lingfield (3.10). He was quickly switched to fences for his handicap (and stable) debut, where the cheekpieces seemed to light him up a bit, and with them removed here he may last a fair bit longer.
Dylan Johnston, jockey I’m looking forward to seeing Ballyburn’s sibling Babyburn in the bumper (3.25) at Fairyhouse. She represents top connections and looks an exciting horse to watch out for.
Ballyburn: his half-sister Babyburn runs at FairyhouseCredit: Shauna Clinton
James Stevens, West Country Masked Man looks a hugely exciting prospect and hopefully he can show his class at Lingfield (1.22). He’s no tip at his price, but Drayton Flyer could be in the 2m7f handicap hurdle (2.32). The six-year-old should relish a step up in trip and clearly looks capable of winning off 104.
Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor The 3m½f handicap hurdle (1.30) at Doncaster could go to Monty Bodkin, who won his sole start at this course in a bumper when trained by Ben Pauling last year and should improve for his first run following wind surgery at Worcester in October. That was also his first outing since April and he is still unexposed following only four starts over hurdles.
Robbie Wilders, tipster I’m a big fan of Faye Bramley, and Winston Junior looks a massive price in the Triumph Trial (12.10) that opens the card at Cheltenham, with that man Harry Cobden striking at 75 per cent (3-4) for the stable. Winston Junior is rated 89 on the Flat, giving him at least 17lb in hand on the first two in the market in that sphere, and is the type to take a big step forward from his hurdles debut second at Fontwell.
Give us one to follow on Sunday
Richard Hoiles, commentator I might be letting my heart rule my head here, but as a lover of familiar racing colours, a grey in the Desert Orchid silks of Richard Burridge, Capricciose (2.48 Carlisle), will always catch the eye. She has a chance as well, having placed in a similar race on her debut, and Brian Hughes has presumably chosen her over the Donald McCain newcomer.
Dylan Johnston, jockey Keep Him Company in the Listed bumper at Navan (3.35). A lot of good horses have won this race and I was really taken by his performance last time at Fairyhouse. The slower ground should help and he looks a nice horse.
James Stevens, West Country Tramuntana in the 2m4½f handicap hurdle (3.10) at Southwell. He looks well treated, was only beaten a head last time and Sean Bowen is a massive positive. He looks well capable off a low mark and he is clearly well regarded, given he was sent off at 7-2 on his debut against The New Lion.
Graeme Rodway, deputy betting editor The 2m4½f handicap chase (1.00) at Southwell could go to Charles Ritz. He doesn’t make it to the course often but is useful when he does and goes well fresh, so 404 days off since his second at Warwick last year is no concern. He has twice won after breaks of at least 250 days, once at this course, and his latest good run at Warwick was after 174 days off. This is his day.
Robbie Wilders, tipster Strong Run stayed on nicely for third on her hurdles debut at Newbury last month and gets an extra half-mile to go at in the 2m4½f mares’ maiden hurdle at Southwell (2.00). That extra emphasis on stamina will suit this sister of top-class staying hurdler Strong Leader, who was smart in bumpers and rates a nice prospect for Fergal O’Brien.
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