The Oregon Ducks are officially a week away from starting their postseason journey and hosting the first-ever College Football Playoff game inside Autzen Stadium. It is sure to be a raucous environment, with the James Madison Dukes coming to town for a game that could act as a jumping-off point for the Ducks’ hopeful championship run.
But as we’ve started to prepare for this matchup and dive into the Dukes, looking at what they’re good at, and which players will lead them, we’ve run into a bit of trouble. In a typical week, with Oregon squaring off against a Power 4 team like the USC Trojans, Wisconsin Badgers, or Washington Huskies, we can look at stats and use numbers to tell the story of what might be coming.
With James Madison, though, that doesn’t work as well.
The Dukes are a Group of 6 team, and a really good Group of 6 team, at that. They won the Sun Belt Conference and have put up numbers that have them ranking near the top of the sport in a bunch of major statistical categories. But do those numbers tell the whole story?
I’d argue that they don’t. James Madison has played just a single Power 4 team (opponent in the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, or Big 12), losing to the Louisville Cardinals earlier this year, 28-14. Outside of that game, their wins have come against the likes of Weber State, Liberty, Georgia State, Marshall, and Coastal Carolina, among others.
So while Bob Chesney’s team can boast that it has the No. 9 scoring offense, No. 6 rushing offense, and the No. 2 rushing defense, it’s fair to question how much those numbers really tell us. Sure, James Madison may score 36.7 points per game, but when you consider that the defenses they’ve faced average out to No. 83 in the nation — equivalent to the Nevada Wolfpack — it doesn’t look as daunting. Likewise, the Dukes’ rushing defense is No. 2 in the nation, giving up just 77.2 yards per game on the ground. However, the average of their opponents ranks as the No. 58 rushing team in the nation, equivalent to Kennesaw State.
They say that numbers never lie, but in this case, they don’t tell the whole story. While James Madison has been a great team at their level, their level is not the same as Oregon’s level at the top of the Big Ten, or even simply in the Power 4.
A better way to assess how these teams compare, I’ve found, is by looking at talent compositions. While the Dukes may be able to put up significant numbers against equally talented teams, how can we project what they will look like against a team far more talented than they are?
For starters, we have to figure out what the talent difference is between the Ducks and the Dukes. To do this, I dove into the 247Sports Team Talent Composite. It breaks down a team’s roster, deciphering how many 5-stars, 4-stars, 3-stars, and lower are on the squad. Take a look at the breakdown:
5-Star Players: 0
4-Star Players: 3
3-Star Players: 35
2-Star Players or Lower: 75
Oregon Ducks’ Talent Composition
5-Star Players: 6
4-Star Players: 52
3-Star Players: 27
2-Star Players or Lower: 28
That paints a much clearer picture, and one that shows that Oregon, just as far as roster composition and talent go, is in a much different league than James Madison.
There’s a fine line between honesty and disrespect. Going into a College Football Playoff game against a respected team like the Dukes, my goal is not to discredit them or what they have accomplished this season. They have a great coach, a good team, and have found success in the Sun Belt. Nothing can take away from the special season that they’ve had, and they deserve endless credit for fighting their way into the CFP.
That doesn’t mean that they are going to find success against Oregon, though. The early point spread on this game, according to FanDuel Sportbook, is Oregon -21 1/2 points, and to be honest, I’m not sure that is enough. The Ducks have the dudes, and they’re playing at home. We don’t have to go back many years to remember how much that matters.
“He’ll never say that, but he knows we’ve got better players,” Georgia Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart said of the Ducks back in September of 2022, following a 49-3 beatdown in Lanning’s first game with the program.
It was true then, and it’s true now: the team with the better players is usually going to end up winning the biggest games. It’s not a matter of opinion — the Ducks have better players than the Dukes.
In the end, I think that’s going to matter far more than any stat or number James Madison brings to the table.
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