NFL and college football betting: Loving the totals in Browns-Bears, Army-Navy – The Athletic

This week is the Greenberg-Jackson Bowl in Chicago, where an unusually successful Bears team hosts a typically bad Browns squad. You can bet both guys will be going for seconds at the halftime spread in the press box.

JON GREENBERG (2-6 last week, 31-47-1 overall): I’m so dialed in to covering a rare competent Bears team and obsessing with my son after a typically mediocre playoff-bound Steelers team that I’m a little behind on other NFL trends.

For instance, until I started looking at the lines this week, I didn’t realize we have a rivalry game this week between a team with a seven-game losing streak (the Giants) and one with an eight-game losing streak (the Commanders). Also, who knew there were two teams with active 10-game winning streaks (Patriots and Broncos)?

But before we delve into our NFL picks, there is one college game (well, more than one, but one Division I-A game and no, I won’t ever call it FBS) this week. It’s Army-Navy week! It’s your patriotic duty to bet on this game, like paying taxes and complaining about the commercials you’ve seen all football season.

Navy is very good this year, while Army is just decent, and so the Midshipmen are favored by 6.5 points. The total is 38.5.

Army’s quarterback this year is Cale Hellums, and he has a very old-fashioned service academy quarterback stat line of 1,078 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns with 504 passing yards and three scores through the air. It reminds me of my days covering Jim Grobe’s triple-option offense at Ohio University. Hellums’s counterpart at Navy, Blake Horvath, has 1,390 passing yards and nine passing touchdowns, plus 1,040 rushing yards and 14 scores on the ground. Feels like a no-brainer to take the Mids.

Of course, I lean toward Army, which means Navy wins. And if that happens, Navy is going to score points. So I’m going to take over 38.5.

Also, holy cow is my record bad.

ZAC JACKSON (3-3, 39-39-1): This is the college football world we live in. I have not previously given one second of thought to Army-Navy, but my first click last Monday morning was Navy +2.5 in their bowl game vs. Cincinnati because the Bearcats’ quarterback, Brendan Sorsby, is likely either headed to the NFL or to the transfer portal.

Now, Navy is favored. I’m just really good at this, Jon.

Army’s offense is better (and different) this year. Army’s defense is No. 128 in success rate. Army-Navy games tend to stay under the total, but I also lean toward over 38.5.

I’m headed to your neighborhood, and I love under 39 in Browns-Bears. The forecast calls for a real-feel temperature of minus-20 or so, and I’m a big real-feel guy. I think the Bears’ one goal will be to not turn over the ball early and attack via the run, while I think the Browns and their makeshift offensive line will struggle to put things together. If the Bears eventually get turnovers, they win big. In either case, I think it comfortably stays under 40.

GREENBERG: I’ll be with you in the press box Sunday, and I’m also with you on under 39. I think the last time the Bears played in a home game expected to be this cold was 2013, when the wind chill was minus-9 in a night game against the Cowboys. Points were scored, however, as the Bears won 45-28. That was during the Josh McCown renaissance period, and Joshy Football threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns. Jay Cutler, who was hurt at the time, bought the quarterbacks all wetsuits to stay warm. Also, Mike Ditka got his number retired at halftime, and his face was bright red as he yelled, “Go Bears!” Incidentally, the Bears have had two winning seasons since that 8-8 season, one of which is going on right now.

Bringing it back to the aforementioned streak-riding teams, I’m going to take the Giants -2.5 to end their losing streak at seven. I’m also betting against both 10-game win streaks. Give me the Bills -1 at New England and the Packers -2.5 in Denver. The Broncos haven’t lost a home game yet, but they’ve had a few close calls.

JACKSON: Myles Garrett’s first NFL sack came against McCown in 2017. There’s at least a 0.1 percent chance that McCown will be Garrett’s head coach next year.

Garrett could have 25 sacks on what might be a three-win Browns team. The guy is absurdly good, and he’s capable of making Caleb Williams miserable on Sunday.

But, back to the picks. My strongest NFL pick is the Chiefs -5.5. I’m not sure they can rally all the way back, but the Chargers have an injured quarterback and a horrendous offensive line. I’m not sure the Chargers even get to 13 points.

I lean Buffalo with you, but the Patriots are off a bye and are on the win streak you mentioned. Do they crash back to earth eventually? Probably. But I’ll save my pennies for upcoming obscure bowl games in case they don’t.

Any NFL futures catch your eye?

GREENBERG: Sure, put me down for $10 to win $5,000 on the Steelers-Bears Super Bowl I thought I might get 15 years ago.

JACKSON: To me, the best numbers in the NFL futures market are long gone. I had neither the guts nor the brains to take a shot at the Texans to win the wide-open AFC a month ago. But right now, I would double down on Ohio State to win it all (+225 at BetMGM).

GREENBERG: Fine, if we are doing this, put me down for Indiana to win it all (+275 at BetMGM).