MSU basketball video analysis after the Spartans’ 66-60 loss to Duke
The Lansing State Journal’s Graham Couch and Detroit Free Press’ Chris Solari and Shawn Windsor discuss MSU’s basketball team after its loss to Duke.
• What: Michigan State at Penn State
• When: Noon Saturday
• Where: Bryce Jordan Center, State College, Pennsylvania
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), Ch. 372 (Penn State broadcast).
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 8-1 and entered the week ranked No. 9 in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches poll, No. 10 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee, and No. 12 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Penn State is 8-2 and unranked in either major poll, and No. 107 in the NET rankings and 110 by Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -12.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 744-303 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Penn State — Mike Rhoades is 413-223 in his 22nd season as a head coach, including 40-34 in his third season with Penn State. He spent the previous six seasons as the head coach at VCU. Also of note, one of Penn State’s assistant coaches is Lansing native Brent Scott, an Everett High School star in the late 1980s.
• Series: MSU leads 46-10 all-time, including a 90-85 win at Breslin Center in last season’s only meeting.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.3
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 14.2
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.1
SG (2) Kur Teng (6-4) 5.4
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 11.6
Penn State
C (3) Ivan Juric (7-0) 12.7
PF (10) Josh Reed (6-8) 10.0
G (7) Dominick Stewart (6-5) 7.2
G (9) Melih Tunca (6-5) 12.8
PG (4) Kayden Mingo (6-3) 15.4
• MSU update: By the time the Spartans take the court in State College, it will have been a week since their 66-60 home loss to Duke, their first defeat of the season. While that loss was frustrating and that game more high-profile than this one, winning at Penn State is more essential to MSU’s goals this season. MSU should be closer to full strength in this one, with freshman Cam Ward having practiced all week and getting used to the brace on his sprained wrist. The Spartans have proven themselves to be an elite team defensively and on the glass. They’re No. 6 in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom.com, and 10th and 11th, respectively, in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the nation in assists at 9.8 per game, a full assist above Purdue’s Braden Smith, who’s second.
MORE: Couch: Jordan Scott looks like Michigan State’s answer at shooting guard. ‘He gets stuff done.’
• Penn State update: The Nittany Lions are coming of a 113-72 defeat at Indiana on Tuesday, aided by the Hoosiers’ Lamar Wilkerson, who couldn’t miss (He hit 10 3 pointers.). Penn State is 8-2, but 0-2 against its only two high-major opponents, falling 77-65 to Providence on a neutral court, along with the road loss to the Hoosiers. The Nittany Lions’ roster has mostly turned over since last season, with only three returners and one major contributor back from a year ago in Freddie Dilione. Mike Rhoades is trying to build the program by going young. He has eight freshmen on the roster, five who are playing significant minutes.
MORE: MSU’s Trey Fort donates food, toys to those less fortunate in Lansing. ‘Everywhere there’s someone who needs it.’
• Matchup analysis: Penn State’s offense has been OK, but the Nittany Lions are one of the worst defenses in college basketball in several categories. Freshman Kayden Mingo, a top-35 recruit nationally, is a bull of a guard and a bucket-getter getting downhill, averaging better than 15 points, along with 4.0 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game. If Rhoades can keep him at Penn State for the next couple years, he’ll be an All-Big Ten guard. Dilione, freshman Melih Tunca, and sophomores Dominick Stewart and Eli Rice are all capable outside shooters, between 38% and 50% at decent volume. MSU has been holding opponents to less than 29% from beyond the arc. That’ll be important to the Spartans controlling this game. MSU is a significantly better rebounding and defensive team, with a lot more experience and experience winning. That said, it will be the Spartans’ first true road game and on a day Penn State is introducing new football coach Matt Campbell, so the Bryce Jordan Center crowd might actually be a formidable atmosphere.
• Prediction: If MSU treats its first true road game with the same discipline and energy that it’s tackled the rest of the season so far, the Spartans should get out of State College with a decisive win.
• Make it: MSU 78, Penn State 66
MORE: Couch: Predicting Michigan State’s basketball season – Arkansas through Duke, the Big Ten and March Madness
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
