Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 14 matchup against the Houston Texans, nearly every Arrowhead Pride panelist picked Kansas City to win. Their aggregated prediction — a 20-10 Chiefs victory — missed by 26 points compared to the Chiefs’ 20-10 loss. Our readers fared much better: just over half picked Houston to win, and 14% correctly believed the Texans would leave Kansas City with an easy victory.
In Week 15, the Chiefs return to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to face the Los Angeles Chargers. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 5.5 points.
Here’s how the staff — and our readers — see the matchup playing out.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
Last week, I picked against the Chiefs because I felt it was an unfavorable matchup for the team.
This week feels different. This is a game Kansas City should win.
The Chargers’ edge rushers will cause some issues, but not to the extent Houston did. Los Angeles also isn’t a man-heavy coverage team, which better suits the Chiefs’ offense. Finding answers should come more easily.
And we saw what the Kansas City defense did to Houston’s offensive line last week. The Chargers might be worse. In a game against the Eagles without Jalen Carter, Los Angeles allowed nearly a 70% pressure rate and seven sacks. Chris Jones should dominate.
It should be close, but this matchup favors the Chiefs.
Kansas City 24, Chargers 20
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
In more than seven years of making Chiefs predictions in this space, I’ve learned one lesson above all else: trust the team. During that span, Kansas City has posted the NFL’s best record. So even if I only missed on losses, my overall mark would still be strong. Predicting the Chiefs’ defeats has usually meant predicting upsets — and those are nearly impossible to foresee.
I can’t fully explain how the 2025 team ended up at 6-7. By most measures, the offense has been more productive than the 15-2 team from 2024. There are visible cracks on defense, but none that should have pushed the team to the brink of missing the postseason. And in the third quarter against Houston, we saw that the unit can still be dominant.
I just can’t justify giving up on the Chiefs. Hopefully, they won’t give up on themselves, either.
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
This is one of the most difficult Chiefs games I’ve tried to project. It’s still unclear which version of this team will show up. The record says 6–7 — and that matters. Yet the offense has outperformed last season’s 15–2 unit statistically, and the defense — even with noticeable regression — still flashes its former identity. The third quarter last week was a reminder of that ceiling.
Execution has been the difference. In past seasons, Kansas City delivered in defining moments. This year, those moments have swung the other way. Penalties, drops and missed assignments — particularly late — have defined too many losses.
Still, the pedigree remains. Even with slim playoff odds, this team isn’t built to fade quietly. In cold Arrowhead conditions — and with everything on the line — Kansas City should play with urgency. If that translates into cleaner execution, the Chiefs can control the game.
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
This is another must-win for the Chiefs — but this one carries finality. A loss would all but mathematically eliminate them from the playoff race.
The odds are slim, but the external help they need isn’t far-fetched. The most difficult part may be winning out themselves — but that also means some control remains in their hands.
I believe they get it done against a battered Chargers team. Yes, Los Angeles beat Philadelphia — but it required a disastrous performance from Jalen Hurts. Add in the cold at Arrowhead, and the edge goes to Kansas City in a true do-or-die spot.
The Chiefs aren’t dead yet — technically — but a loss would, for all practical purposes, end the season. Scoreboard watching is inevitable. And even with everything at stake, this remains a difficult matchup.
The Chargers aren’t elite in any one area, but complementary football and physicality have driven a strong season. They’re rounding into playoff form.
On paper, the gap isn’t large — except where it matters most.
Defensively, Kansas City can slow the run. Trent McDuffie matches up well with Ladd McConkey. The key will be pressuring Justin Herbert behind a battered offensive line. The Chargers have given up a ton of hits on Herbert this year, but the Chiefs’ defensive line has not proven it can win consistently.
Offensively, the plan again revolves around backup linemen. The Chargers’ pass defense has been excellent, allowing fewer than 175 passing yards per game.
Kansas City wins a close one — likely on the ground.
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
The Chiefs are still mathematically alive. And regardless of the circumstances, this team doesn’t tank — especially since being embarrassed by the Chargers in Brazil. Expect a full effort — but whether that’s enough remains to be seen. Thus far, the Chiefs have lost a lot of games they were expected to win.
So this one could go either way.
Defensively, Kansas City must limit Ladd McConkey. (I’d put a big body like Jaylen Watson or Nohl Williams on Keenan Allen). Expect adjustments in coverage and protection schemes offensively, with extra help and moving pockets for Mahomes.
Even so, injuries loom large for the Chiefs — but I’m riding with them anyway. For better or worse, I’m going down with this ship, too.
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
The Chiefs have done nothing to reward my faith in them — but in a cold noon kickoff against a Chargers team on a short week, I’m picking them anyway.
This could get ugly. Both teams are battered up front, and both quarterbacks are dealing with injuries. I expect another inspired defensive effort, even if the offense isn’t crisp. Still, I also don’t see it repeating the string of errors that doomed the team against the Texans.
These Chargers matchups are usually decided by thin margins. Being at home gives Kansas City just enough of an edge.
Kansas City enters as the favorite — even if many believe the Chargers have been the better team this season. Their record supports that view.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have found new ways to lose. Outside the building, the dynasty is being written off. Criticism has grown loud. I’ve seen broadsides directed at Brett Veach, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes (to name just a few) that ignore the unbelievable success we’ve witnessed.
Still, these are the same Chiefs. Their best seasons have often featured regular-season struggles before postseason clarity. By Sunday night, we should know whether that could still happen — or if we’ll now be looking to the off-season.
I’m not ready for that — and I don’t think the locker room is, either.
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 25-18.
2025 Standings
TW LW Staffer W L Pct Err
1 1 Maurice Elston 7 6 0.5385 22.9
2 7 Nate Christensen 6 7 0.4615 21.7
3 2 Caleb James 6 7 0.4615 23.1
4 3 Mark Gunnels 6 7 0.4615 24.2
5 4 Jared Sapp 6 7 0.4615 25.1
6 5 Matt Stagner 6 7 0.4615 29.1
7 6 Rocky Magaña 5 8 0.3846 22.2
8 8 John Dixon 5 8 0.3846 25.7
Nate Christensen was the only AP panelist who correctly predicted the Texans would win Week 14’s game. His call for a 20-16 Houston victory missed by 12 total points. Among those who picked the Chiefs, John Dixon, Mark Gunnels and Caleb James all turned in predictions with 26 points of error.
*To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
