Locks
NFL (2 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans (-3.5): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
The spread in this game dipped briefly yesterday to 9.5, but is back up across the double digit threshold. That signals to me that smart money intentionally bought the line down to single digits so they could load up on Houston at the key number, expecting this to be something of a blood bath. I’m not sure about that given how feisty Arizona has been with Jacoby Brissett, but I do know that the Texans are a team on the rise.
With how elite this defense is, any improvement from the offense would make this a dangerous team and that’s what they’ve been getting. The offense will continue to improve against a bad Cardinals secondary, and the boost Brissett has provided will be negated against the best defense in the league. Double digits might be a stretch, but this teased number should be easy for Houston to handle in a must-win spot for them.
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5): 3:25 PM CT on FOX
A rested 49ers team off the bye, given time to heal up from their laundry list of injuries, along with time to make adjustments with several key players out for the year, should be dangerous here. Especially against what is broadly understood as the worst team in the league, but it might not be that simple. Kyle Shanahan does not do well off a bye week, just 1-5 ATS in the past 6 instances including postseason games, while Brock Purdy is 6-10 ATS on any kind of extra prep time.
But Purdy has never lost outright as a double-digit favorite, and is 6-4 ATS in those games, so using a teaser to knock this big number down considerably is the way to go. To beat this Titans team by just a touchdown isn’t asking much, not when they’re in a significant letdown spot after a shocking win last week and now having a second straight road game. That never goes well for rookie QB’s, and I’m sure Robert Saleh will have something cooked up in the bye week, so expect San Fran to cover this adjusted number.
Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks (-7): 3:25 PM CT on CBS
I can’t believe Philip Rivers is starting at quarterback for a team in 2025, it’s beyond parody. This guy was famously a statue in his prime 15 years ago, and when we last saw him in action back in 2020 it was obvious there was nothing left in his arm. Seattle should be able to put 8 in the box on defense to stymie Jonathan Taylor today, which for Rivers’ sake is who I hope gets all the work here.
The Colts aren’t just hilariously shorthanded at quarterback though, as the defense will be missing several key players including their two best corners. The Seahawks should be able to throw all over Indy and rack up stats for Jaxon Smith-Njigba today, unless the defense scores more touchdowns than the offense. So it’s not unreasonable to think this will be a blowout similar to the Max Brosmer game, but the NFL is the flukiest thing around and I like safer numbers, so tease Seattle down with confidence today.
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Los Angeles Chargers (+12) @ Kansas City Chiefs: 12:00 PM CT on CBS
I can’t believe the spread on this game keeps moving in favor of Kansas City, does somebody know something I don’t know? Here’s what I know: the Chiefs are not a team you want to back as a favorite, especially against this opponent. Patrick Mahomes has not been his young goat self this season, and betting on him to be that version has been a nightmare as he’s just 4-11 ATS the past 15 times he’s been a favorite of any size.
Now you’re making him a touchdown favorite against an opposing quarterback who thrives in that situation. Justin Herbert is an incredible 11-2-1 ATS as an underdog of above a field goal, the 3rd-most profitable ROI of any QB in that situation the past 20 years. Jim Harbaugh also holds a significant 4-0-1 ATS advantage over Andy Reid, so being able to pad this already too-big spread with an extra 6 points? Yes please.
Detroit Lions (+12) @ Los Angeles Rams: 3:25 PM CT on FOX
The case for Detroit specifically is eerily similar to the case for the Chargers above. You just have to back the Jared Goff and Dan Campbell duo when they’re sizable underdogs, as they’ve gone 17-3 ATS with a plus-5.2 average cover margin when dogs of 4 or more points. The case against them is stronger than the Chiefs above, as Sean McVay tends to own the month of December, but that’s not against adjusted numbers like this one.
The Lions just have too potent an offense not to be able to find their way through the back door at absolute minimum today. I think this will be a closer game though, a back-and-forth affair with two elite offenses trading shots from QB’s in their respective revenge spots. I think the cracks in the LA defense have been getting exposed, and a desperate Lions team with extra rest should be able to exploit them, so holding this many points in that kind of game is a must.
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (+8.5): 3:25 PM CT on FOX
Back the Panthers as a favorite at your own risk. This team is the poster child for NFL absurdity this season, flirting with a division title despite being an underdog in 12 of their 13 games this season. They’ve won outright twice as a double-digit dog, but what they can’t do is handle being a favorite, as they lost horribly to this very Saints team the one time Vegas decided they should be favored.
You’d have to go back to September of 2021 to find the last time Carolina was favored and actually won the game, an astounding run of 11 straight outright losses when favored by any number. The Saints are always feisty against the division and seem to be trying, with surprisingly good play from Tyler Shough. Their defense is actually serviceable, and I think they can keep this one close if not extend Carolina’s woes when laying points.
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos (+7.5): 3:25 PM CT on CBS
I’ll take another short home underdog here and bump them up to a comfortable margin, as I think this one should be tight as well. All Broncos games seem to be manic close calls, whether they’re favored against the worst teams in the league or underdogs against the NFL’s best, Denver has played one-possession games in 11 of 13 this season.
So getting them with this many points where they could lose by a touchdown and still cover is great value for how their games shake out. Green Bay might be masters of December under Matt LaFleur, but that’s from a straight-up winning standpoint. They’ve been in some tight ones as well, with 9 of their past 11 games staying inside the margin of this teased number, so I’ll back the padded home dog here.
NFL (1 Unit) Washington Commanders/NY Giants First Half Over 22.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
A lot has changed since these teams met in Week 1 and the Giants offense under Russell Wilson fell on its face, only putting up 6 points while the Commanders rolled. The QB change has done wonders for the New York offense, and as a result, games started by either Jameis Winston or Jaxson Dart are 8-2 over the first half total.
The Giants are actually sneaky-good offensively, and Washington is still as vulnerable as it gets on defense, ranked 31st in defensive EPA/play and 28th in success rate allowed, so Dart and company will be able to put up points today. But the Giants defense isn’t much better, and are a key part of why those first halves are going over so frequently. The Commanders will bounce back after getting shut out last week, and I think they’ll be able to put up early points to clear this first half total.
NFL (1 Unit) Green Bay Packers/Denver Broncos First Half Under 20.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on CBS
This is going to be a hard-fought game between two teams in tight playoff positioning races. Unfortunately there’s no weather impact in Denver to help keep scoring low, but I think these defenses and questionable offenses will do that on their own. The Broncos obviously boast some of the best defensive metrics in the league, so they should slow down a Packers offense that is typically conservative to start games.
But Green Bay is also very good defensively, and the Denver offense seems to short-circuit and be their own worst enemy more often than not. Packers games are 10-3 under the first half total this season, and Denver’s games against any defense with a pulse have also trended well under the first half totals, so I see a slow start in this high-stakes matchup.
NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Drake Maye Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – James Cook Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Josh Allen Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Hunter Henry Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Nico Collins Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Michael Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)
1 Unit – Jamarr Chase Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Jamarr Chase Over 7.5 Receptions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Mark Andrews Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Isaiah Likely Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
0.75 Unit – Terry McLaurin Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Theo Johnson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Wandale Robinson Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Jared Goff Over 257.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 99.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Puka Nacua Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Matthew Stafford Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Juwan Johnson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Chris Olave Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)
1 Unit – Jauan Jennings Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 1.5 Touchdowns (+170)
1 Unit – Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 96.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – JJ McCarthy Over 193.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – TJ Hockenson Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Aaron Jones Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – George Pickens Longest Reception Over 25.5 Yards (-110)
NBA (1 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans/Chicago Bulls First Half Over 120.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CHSN
This one has a chance to get really wild, with a total sitting at 247 points. But for the full-game total to be that high, this first half number should be more in line with it and that’s just not the case. So I see value in this earlier total in a game that is likely to follow the same script as the first meeting. That one went nuts with 273 points, 132 of which were put up before halftime.
In the 3 weeks since that meeting, Pelicans games have gone nuclear early on as their offense gets healthier and better, which continues today with Jordan Poole back from injury. The Bulls are also expected to get key contributors back today, and with these teams playing at breakneck paces with terrible defense, I think the first half erupts again.
NBA (1 Unit) Luka Doncic Over 34.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on SportsNet LA
There’s no Austin Reaves for the Lakers tonight, which means it’s the full-on Luka show. As if he needed any more reason to take the full offensive workload into his own hands, Doncic will be free to hog the ball and get up as many shots as he wants here. I think he has a great matchup to exploit as well, with the Suns coming in severely shorthanded in the backcourt.
Jalen Green remains out, and Dillon Brooks is questionable tonight with an Achilles issue, so their perimeter defense is about as weakened as possible. Luka already went off for 38 against Phoenix when Brooks was healthy and Reaves was playing, so in this one I see him continuing this torrid pace of 36.3 PPG the past 9 games.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 34-29 (+2.54 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
