A dominating running game is a tough thing for defenses to overcome. Teams that impose their will on the ground see significant success in the NFL and it’s a success that appears to grow as the dog days of winter progress into the postseason.
At face value, the Dallas Cowboys look like one of those run-dominant teams. Their 4.6 yards/carry average ties them for 10th in the NFL. With 1,022 rushing yards, the Cowboys’ Javonte Williams ranks seventh in the NFL. They’re also in the top half of the NFL in both EPA/rush and success rate, indicating their success is meaningful and not just empty calories.
Advertisement
A deeper dive shows the Cowboys aren’t as will-imposing as they may seem. Overall, Dallas passes at a rate of just one percent over expected. They are balanced. But on traditional running downs like 3rd-and-1 or 2, the Cowboys forgo the run and pass at a rate of a whopping 16 percent over expected. To put it another way, when defenses gear up to stop the run, the Cowboys pivot to the passing game.
Based on tracking from Sumer Sports, the Cowboys running game is buoyed largely by their success against light boxes. Brian Schottenheimer and Dak Prescott opt for runs when defenses are back in coverage. This runs consistent to modern analytical thought that running works best against light box counts.
Like most teams, the Cowboys running strategy shifts between various zone, man and gap schemes. All types have proven fairly efficient yet no specific brand has been dominant. It’s a diverse scheme that challenges defenders to both read and react.
Advertisement
Again, where the Cowboys really stand out is against light boxes. With a light box EPA of 0.08, the Cowboys rank No. 4 in the NFL in this opportunistic category. It’s why their passing game downfield is so important. The more fear the Cowboys impart on opposing secondaries the more likely they’ll see light box counts for the running game.
In Week 15 specifically, things appear to be stacked in the Cowboys’ favor. Minnesota’s middle of the field EPA of 0.55 yielded isn’t just 30th ranked in the NFL, but their deep ball EPA of 1.19 is dead last at 32nd. The Vikings will have to pick their poison and either let Dallas receiver corps feast or empty the box so the Cowboys’ running game can take over.
The Cowboys’ running game has drastically improved in 2025, but it’s success is based on opportunity and circumstances rather than sheer will. It’s an important distinction to make and certainly explains some of the play calling and decision making on offense.
Advertisement
You can follow Reid on X @ReidDHanson and be sure to follow Cowboys Wire on Facebook to join in on the conversation with fellow fans!
This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: Cowboys’ run-game success hinges on this important distinction
