The Las Vegas Raiders remain the team with the best chance at picking No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, according to The Athletic’s NFL simulator. But the New York Giants saw their odds jump by about 10 percentage points in Week 15, with their 18 percent shot at the top pick now tied for the second-best odds.
Despite that bump, the Giants are still only fourth in The Athletic’s projected draft order. That’s because the model likes the Giants’ chances to win some of their remaining games.
After the Raiders at No. 1, the Tennessee Titans are projected for the No. 2 pick, followed by the New York Jets at No. 3. The Giants and Cleveland Browns round out the top five.
As a reminder, the draft order presented here is based on Austin Mock’s projection model, which includes where each team is expected to finish this season.
Let’s take a look at how teams in the running for No. 1 fared in Week 15.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
The Kenny Pickett-led Raiders offense got shut out by the Philadelphia Eagles. It may be safe to chalk up their next game against the Houston Texans as a likely loss, but things can get tricky for the Raiders after that. The Week 17 matchup against the Giants, who lost on Sunday to the Commanders, is one of the biggest games remaining this season in terms of deciding the No. 1 pick. The Raiders’ season finale is against the Kansas City Chiefs, who were not only eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday but also lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in their loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. If the Chiefs rest a lot of their impact players, that game in Las Vegas could hurt the Raiders’ chances at the top pick, if they win.
As for the current draft order, the Raiders slot below the Giants and above the Titans on the basis of the strength of schedule tiebreaker. But the odds here are based on how these teams are projected to finish and the Raiders control their own destiny. If they lose out, handing the Giants their third win in the process, the No. 1 pick goes to Las Vegas.
Remaining schedule: at Houston Texans, vs. New York Giants, vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Tennessee Titans (2-12)
The Titans’ Week 14 win over the Cleveland Browns could prove costly, as they need to lose out and get some help to land the top pick for a second consecutive year. Their most direct path is to lose the remainder of their games and hope the Giants and Raiders each win a game.
According to the simulator, if the Titans lose out and the Giants lose out (which makes the Raiders a three-win team, at worst), the Titans have around a 28 percent chance at the No. 1 pick. If the Titans lose out and the Raiders lose out (making the Giants a three-win team, at worst), the simulator has Tennessee’s chances at the top pick at less than 1 percent.
Remaining schedule: vs. Kansas City Chiefs, vs. New Orleans Saints, at Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Jets (3-11)
As bad as the Jets looked against the Jacksonville Jaguars, it’s an uphill climb to land the top pick, even with a tough schedule ahead that includes games against the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. New York is in a three-team cluster with three wins. Although the top pick is somewhat of a long shot, the game against the Saints in Week 16 is a fairly big one for the Jets’ draft slotting because it’s the only game remaining where New York has a decent chance to fall into a win. With the Giants-Raiders game almost certain to add a team to the three-win club, if the Jets lose to the Saints, they could be in play for a top-three selection. While the model only gives the Jets an 11 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, they have an 19 percent chance to pick No. 2 and an 18 percent chance to pick No. 3.
Remaining schedule: at New Orleans Saints, vs. New England Patriots, at Buffalo Bills
New York Giants (2-12)
Although the Giants are currently slotted as the No. 1 pick in the standings, the simulator has their chances considerably behind the two-win Raiders. That’s because the Giants have the third-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. They play the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16 and finish the season against the Dallas Cowboys. Of course, the key matchup will be in Week 17, when the Giants play the Raiders. Their games against the Vikings and Cowboys also carry some degree of winnability, especially with the Cowboys on the brink of elimination, but it’s the game against the Raiders that stands as the greatest hurdle between the Giants and the No. 1 pick.
If the Giants lose their remaining three games, their odds shoot up to about 89 percent to pick No. 1. If that happens, the Raiders would be out of the mix — by virtue of beating the Giants in Week 17. The Titans would still have a shot at the top pick if they lost their remaining games. The tiebreaker would go to strength of schedule (whichever team had the easier schedule would get the No. 1 pick). The Giants have the edge there now, but there are enough games left for that to change.
Remaining schedule: vs. Minnesota Vikings, at Las Vegas Raiders, vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cleveland Browns (3-11)
The Browns kept their chances alive for the No. 1 pick with an abysmal all-around performance against the Chicago Bears, but they still have less than a 10 percent chance at the top pick. The Browns do have a fairly tough schedule ahead. Not accounting for any other results for other teams, if the Browns lose the rest of their games, the simulator gives Cleveland just about a 33 percent chance at the top pick. Although one of the Raiders or Giants will likely join the three-win group after Week 17, that still leaves the loser of that game and the Titans as potential two-win teams to finish the season.
Remaining schedule: vs. Buffalo Bills, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, at Cincinnati Bengals
Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
The Cardinals technically stayed in the race for the No. 1 pick with their loss to the Houston Texans, but the odds remain stacked against them. Even if the Cardinals lose out, The Athletic’s simulator only elevates their odds at the top pick to about 6 percent. The reason is the Cardinals have played a fairly tough schedule with three NFC West teams boasting 10 or more wins, which doesn’t bode well for them with that tiebreaker. Even among the three-win teams, the Cardinals lose the tiebreaker to the Jets and Browns.
Remaining schedule: vs. Atlanta Falcons, at Cincinnati Bengals, at Los Angeles Rams
