Every fantasy manager knows that schedule strength can greatly impact fantasy player performance. The more granular one can get in matchups, the better.
My matchup points system uses various fantasy points and allowed metrics as a base. Then, variables such as the likelihood of a team getting into a high-scoring game and pass-blocking/pass-rush strength are added. These combined grades are then placed on a curve and given a 1-100 score, with 1 being the least favorable and 100 being the most favorable.
Keep in mind these grades are all based on fantasy-scoring relevance. For example, as detailed in my soft secondaries and the receivers who’ll benefit most from them in fantasy football article, a defensive back who has a low yards per attempt (YPA) allowed but a low PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed will be graded as a favorable matchup in this system.
Over the years, I have found that the most valuable part of the weekly schedule strength analysis is on the outer margins, which this article will cover. It will highlight players with a matchup points total of 80 or higher and detail those with a total of 20 or lower.
Now that we’ve covered the basics, let’s move on to the best and worst matchups for Week 15. The list below shows the entire scope of players with favorable and unfavorable matchups. I’ll highlight players from each positional list, beginning with quarterbacks.
Metrics are via TruMedia/PFF, Stathead or NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted. Point references are in PPR unless otherwise noted.
Most favorable Week 16 matchups
Quarterback
Justin Herbert, LAC (at DAL)
Dallas is the type of plus matchup that can end Herbert’s fantasy scoring slump. The Cowboys rank 26th in vertical FPPG allowed since Week 12. Consider Herbert a low-end QB1.
Kirk Cousins, ATL (at ARI)
A favorable matchup led to Cousins posting 26.92 points last week. This Arizona matchup is nearly as favorable. The Cardinals have six defensive backs who have allowed a double-digit yards per catch rate over the past four weeks. Cousins is a great fill-in candidate for those who lost Patrick Mahomes.
J.J. McCarthy, MIN (at NYG)
The Giants have allowed the second-highest yards per target on vertical passes since Week 12, opening the door for McCarthy to have a third straight 20+ point game.
Running backs
Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal, LAC (at DAL)
The Cowboys have allowed a league-worst eight touchdowns on planned rush plays over the past four weeks. Hampton and Vidal have operated an almost 50/50 pure platoon the past two weeks, making them both RB2 candidates with upside.
Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, MIN (at NYG)
New York has allowed a ridiculously high and league-worst 5.6 yards per carry this season. Jones should be in every starting lineup. Mason is more of a longshot upside play given that he has 21 carries over the past two weeks.
Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal, NO (vs. NYJ)
Kamara and Neal are both dealing with injuries, so it’s not currently clear who will be playing this week. What is clear is that New York ranks last in FPPG on planned rushes over the past four weeks. Whichever New Orleans RB is slated to lead the backfield is a flex candidate.
Bucky Irving, TB (at CAR)
Don’t worry about Irving’s 8.1-point total from last week. Carolina is 27th in planned rush FPPG since Week 12. Get Irving into lineups this week.
Quinshon Judkins, CLE (vs. BUF)
Judkins has posted only 14.1 points over the past two weeks, but Buffalo’s defense has allowed 18.3 FPPG on planned rushes since Week 12. Rate him as a possible flex candidate.
Wide receivers
Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson, ARI (vs. ATL)
The Falcons have three defensive backs who have allowed 10+ PPR FPPG over the past four weeks, giving Harrison and Wilson (if Harrison sits) WR2 value this week.
Tight ends
Dallas Goedert, PHI (at WSH)
Washington has allowed a 74% completion rate and 10.3 yards per target to tight ends over the past four weeks. This matchup should allow Goedert to post a third straight game with 15+ points.
Darren Waller, MIA (vs. CIN)
Waller’s great second half against Pittsburgh led to a 25.6-point game. The Bengals did better against tight ends last week, but have still allowed 24 FPPG to this position since Week 12. Waller rates as a low-end TE1 with significant upside.
Least favorable Week 16 matchups
Quarterback
Jaxson Dart, NYG (vs. MIN)
Dart scored 22.14 points last week in part because he had one of the most favorable matchups. This week’s matchup against Minnesota, a team with strong coverage metrics across the board, pushes Dart into sit consideration.
Bo Nix, DEN (vs. JAX)
Jacksonville has allowed the lowest vertical yards per attempt over the past four weeks and the third-lowest allowed vertical FPPG. Nix benefits from somewhat favorable pass rush numbers, as detailed in my Week 15 fantasy review, but overall, he has to be considered a low-end QB1.
Running backs
RJ Harvey, DEN (vs. JAX)
Harvey scored only 10.5 points last week following a two-game stretch with 20+ points. Facing a Jacksonville defense that has allowed only 10.7 points on planned rush plays the past four weeks doesn’t bode well for a return to the land of 20+ points. Rate him as a low-end RB2/flex.
Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker, SEA (vs. LAR)
Charbonnet and Walker have combined to score only 18.4 points over the past two games. The Rams are third in planned rush FPPG allowed since Week 12. The subpar scoring trend is not likely to stop this week, so keep Charbonnet and Walker on the fantasy bench, if possible.
Wide receivers
Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton, NYG (vs. MIN)
Robinson and Slayton combined to score 25.7 points against a subpar Washington secondary last week. The Vikings have allowed only 2.1 FPPG on vertical passes since Week 12 and have five defensive backs with a PPR FPPG allowed of 5.0 or lower in that same span. This matchup gives Robinson and Slayton a low floor, so they should be kept out of most lineups.
Tight end
Theo Johnson, NYG (vs. MIN)
Johnson has alternated between single- and double-digit point totals over the past five weeks. A matchup against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the fewest TE FPPG since Week 12 should put Johnson into the single-digit point range this week.
