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- New York’s Christmas weather is not expected to be as severe as the storms seen around Thanksgiving.
- Shifts in the Madden–Julian Oscillation and a stabilized polar vortex are contributing to calmer conditions.
- Early forecasts predict near-normal temperatures and mostly dry weather for much of the state on Christmas Day.
- While some light snow is possible in northern and western New York, widespread, heavy snowfall is unlikely.
Winter arrived early in New York — and it arrived forcefully, with back-to-back clipper systems, polar intrusions, several feet of lake-effect snow and even winter storms that almost saw blizzard conditions.
But an early start doesn’t mean this pattern is locked in. It does not guarantee nonstop snow falling from the skies straight through March or a seemingly never-ending stretch of bitter-cold temperatures.
And while it’s easy to assume Christmas will mirror Thanksgiving — with ice, widespread snow and high winds — weather patterns don’t work that simply. The atmosphere is constantly shifting, and forecasts can change from day to day.
For instance, during Thanksgiving, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, a weakened polar vortex and La Niña all interacted to produce extreme conditions. Since then, two of those factors — the MJO and the polar vortex — have shifted significantly. As a result, conditions this time around won’t be the same.
So what will next week’s weather look like? Here’s a look at what early forecasts say.
New York holiday weather forecast
During Thanksgiving, New York saw frequent lake-effect snow and active winter systems, in part because the Madden–Julian Oscillation was strongly amplified over the Western Pacific. The MJO is a large-scale tropical pattern that moves eastward roughly every 30–60 days, producing pulses of enhanced rainfall and convection. That tropical signal helped reinforce atmospheric patterns that funneled cold air and moisture into the Great Lakes region, but it has weakened significantly since then, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
At the same time, zonal winds in the stratosphere, often associated with the polar vortex, had weakened. Contrary to what it sounds like, this made Arctic air more likely to spill south along the jet stream. Now, the zonal winds have strengthened and returned to their typical pattern, leaving the polar vortex strong and stable, with circulating winds locked in around the North Pole.
Although snow is expected regularly through the end of the year, early forecasts don’t show such significant disruptions to the holidays as experienced on Thanksgiving. Here’s what to expect, according to early forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center.
- Monday–Tuesday, Dec. 22–23: High pressure will dominate, keeping skies mostly clear and temperatures near or slightly above normal for this time of year. Northern New York and the Adirondacks will stay colder, while southern areas, including the Hudson Valley and New York City, may see highs in the upper 30s to mid-40s. Snowfall is unlikely, and any lingering lake-effect snow near the Great Lakes will stay confined to the western portions of the state.
- Wednesday, Dec. 24 (Christmas Eve): A weak shortwave passing from the Great Lakes into the Northeast could trigger isolated snow showers, mostly across northern and western New York. With the MJO no longer amplifying the pattern and the polar vortex strong, widespread snow is unlikely. Areas near Lake Ontario may see minor lake-effect snow, but accumulations should remain light.
- Thursday, Dec. 25 (Christmas Day): Conditions should be calm and mostly dry across much of New York, with clouds increasing slightly in northern regions as the shortwave drifts east. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs in the 30s across the north and 40s in the south. Most of the state, including New York City and the Capital Region, is expected to enjoy a largely snow-free Christmas.
- Friday–Saturday, Dec. 26–27: Another shortwave may bring some scattered snow showers to northern New York and the Tug Hill Plateau, but accumulations are expected to be light. The rest of the state will likely remain dry, with near-normal temperatures.
- Sunday, Dec. 28: High pressure returns, bringing calmer conditions and clearing skies statewide. Temperatures may rise slightly above normal in southern New York, while northern areas remain near seasonal averages. Lake-effect and widespread snow remain minimal.
In the contiguous U.S., the Climate Prediction Center only forecasts the risk of “heavy snow” along the Cascades, Sierra Nevada and Rockies mountain ranges.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com. Find her on Facebook here.
