When Survivor 49 comes to a close on Dec. 17, it will be Kristina Mills, Rizo Velovic, Sage Ahrens-Nichols, Savannah Louie, or Sophi “Soph” Balerdi that is declared the “sole Survivor” and winner of the $1 million dollar prize. Three of them will contend for the title in the Final Tribal Council and two of them will join Nate Moore, Michelle “MC” Chukwujekwu, Alex Moore, Jawan Pitts, Sophie Segreti, and Steven Ramm on the decision-making jury.
Having drawn the same buffs in the two tribe swaps this season, Savannah and Rizo have played the entire season side-by-side. After the first tribe swap, they picked up Soph to complete what became the “Tres Leches” alliance that has found themselves at a numbers advantage going into the finale. Sage has had a vendetta against Savannah since they started out on the Uli tribe, and even when that sentiment was shared by Kristina, neither of them were able to land on a shot on, arguably, the game’s longest-lasting target.
Read on for our hot take on the final five of Survivor Season 49 and the likelihood that they can win the game. The season finale airs next Wednesday on CBS. Be sure to make your predictions at Gold Derby for how you think the game will reach its conclusion.
Survivor 49: Savannah Louie, Sophi Balerdi, and Kristina MillsCBS
1. Savannah Louie
The top pick to come out on top aligns with who the players themselves have perceived to be the biggest target for nearly the entire season. With three individual immunity wins and having escaped the couple of clear opportunities the others had to get her out, Savannah will have the largest load of ammunition going into the FTC. Like Rizo, Sophi, Kristina and Steven, Savannah was an earner of one of the game’s many advantages, but unlike them (Rizo’s idol TBD) she used her’s effectively. Shortly after the merge, Savannah had the opportunity to participate in the opposing split tribe’s vote or bank her vote to use in the future. She banked it and only two tribals later, used her double vote to secure a majority vote against Jawan when it was her own name getting the second most votes. As the winningest individual already, Savannah may be able to win her way to the FTC, but if she’s unable to, it’s likely that her friendships with Rizo and Sophi (which have already been tested) will remain strong enough to usher her there anyway.
2. Rizo Velovic
If anyone is going to give Savannah a run for her money, it’s Rizo. Though they’ve played side-by-side all season, the two dominators have put together very distinct resumés, leaving the ball in the jury’s court for which they prefer. Rizo’s flashiest decisions have been to not play the immunity idol that everyone’s known he’s holding on to. That idol will secure him safety at the final five, so he’s at least making fire to earn his spot in the final, but it’s already been effective enough at keeping any heat away from him week-by-week. He could actually build an argument that one of the reasons Savannah always had so much heat on her is because he was insulated by his idol, otherwise maybe he’d have been the target of some votes. Still, in the few attempts the others tried to navigate around Rizo’s idol to blindside him, he caught on to their tricks and manipulated the votes to go for the players in the middle like Alex and Jawan.
3. Sage Ahrens-Nichols
Because all of the allies Sage was working closely with are out of the game, for her to reach the FTC she will have to do it on her own — meaning immunity challenge wins or victory in the fire-making challenge. Getting there could be seen as a defying-the-odds triumph and with so many friends on the jury, it’s not out of the question that she snatches a come-from-behind win in the fourth quarter. In the final six challenge we saw how hard Sage wanted to beat Savannah for immunity, but still came up short. If we’re analyzing the edit for clues, perhaps the focus on her drive foreshadows triumph over Savannah when it truly matters, to secure herself one of the final seats! A lot can be said about how much of a mistake it was for Sage to vote Steven out instead of Soph, but Sage was never a player that was going to win the game as part of an alliance — instead, she’s been on her own, got this far on her own, and has a path to a win that could see her finally getting revenge on her nemesis Savannah.
4. Sophi Balerdi
Knowledge is indeed power until, of course, you don’t put it to good use. It was disheartening to see that when Soph finally pulled the trigger on her Knowledge Is Power advantage, it wasn’t to blindside her besties, but rather to take a risk she knew she shouldn’t just to go to the end of the game with them. It’s hard to imagine that Soph’s blunder at the final six tribal hasn’t completely sunk her shot at winning because it was a big whiff in full view of the jury that, ultimately, didn’t even matter because the votes from Sage and Kristina for Steven had already negated the power that Soph was trying to steal from him anyway. Soph gained friends for life in Savannah and Rizo, but from the jury’s perspective she will have shielded herself from within their shadow and when given the chance to steal their thunder, chose not to. It won’t be a surprise if she finishes that game in third as a zero vote finalist.
5. Kristina Mills
As far as Soph’s chances to win have plummeted, Kristina may still be even lower than that. In a parallel universe there’s a path where Kristina is named the winner based on personality alone — being well-liked and kind to a jury that favors her over anyone else she’s next to — but this is not that universe. In our reality, Kristina can make the FTC, but she will be sitting next to at least one major contender for the win who inevitably has a stronger case to make. That being said, we also exist in a universe where six seasons ago Mike Gabler beat out, arguably, two more strategic players in a personality vote to claim the Season 43 crown. The difference here is that while Gabler had strong connections with the entire jury, Kristina may only have a good relationship to half of her’s. She did, if you remember, openly tell Savannah to her face during tribal that she has a “strong dislike” for her, after all.
