The South Florida Bulls (6-4) and No. 16 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-3) meet Wednesday at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET (SEC Network+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA basketball odds around the USF vs. Alabama odds and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions for the best bets.
South Florida earned its second straight win Wednesday, holding off the College of Charleston Cougars 81-75. The Bulls failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites as the Under (161) cashed. G Joseph Pinon led the way with 21 points, 4 steals, 3 rebounds and 2 assists. Forwards Izaiyah Nelson and Tristan Beckford each scored 17 points and each had 9 rebounds.
Alabama’s 4-game winning streak ended Saturday with a 96-75 loss to the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats. The Tide failed to cover as 3-point underdogs as the Under (178.5) hit. G Labaron Philon Jr. scored 24 points and briefly sparked Alabama to a 41-39 lead at the break. Arizona controlled the second half, though, outworking the Tide on the glass 52-32. G Latrell Wrightsell Jr. added 21 points, but Alabama could not keep pace after halftime.
Alabama won the last meeting 82-71 in 2014 while the Bulls won the first matchup 66-64 in 2013.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
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South Florida at Alabama odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): South Florida +625 (bet $100 to win $625) | Alabama -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): South Florida +13.5 (-110) | Alabama -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 180.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
South Florida at Alabama picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 95, South Florida 70
PASS.
I like Alabama to bounce back in a big way Wednesday night, which is why I’ll take my wager to the spread.
BET ALABAMA -13.5 (-110).
That loss to Arizona looks ugly on the surface, but it came against the No. 2 team in the country and mostly unraveled after halftime. Before that, Alabama was rolling, scoring 90-plus in 4 straight games. That offense doesn’t disappear overnight, especially back home.
Philon has clearly taken over as the engine, and Alabama still has waves of shooters who can stretch the floor and speed games up in a hurry. When the Tide get downhill, they’re tough to keep off the scoreboard. Coleman Coliseum also matters here. Alabama tends to respond well after a loss, and coach Nate Oats usually pushes tempo even harder in bounce-back spots.
On the other side, South Florida has been solid, but nothing about its recent wins suggests it can trade punches with Alabama for 40 minutes. The Bulls shot poorly from deep against Charleston and now face a much faster, deeper team. USF can hang early, but Alabama’s pace, depth, and shot volume should wear them down. If the Tide get anywhere near their scoring average, this number feels very manageable.
BET UNDER 180.5 (-115).
The total feels inflated here. Alabama can score, but South Florida may not do enough to push this number. The Bulls have gone under in 3 of their last 4 games, while the Crimson Tide have stayed under in back-to-back outings. Alabama has played only 2 games with totals in the 180s this season, splitting those results. This matchup profiles slower than the number suggests, making the under the cleaner play.
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