Macro update
Data deluge follows Fed cut:
A heavy slate of delayed US economic releases this week should finally provide clearer signals on growth and inflation after the 43-day government shutdown disrupted the data flow.
Jobs and inflation take centre stage:
November payrolls are due on Tuesday and consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday, with soft hiring expected and inflation still above target – both key for assessing the next phase of Fed policy.
Policy uncertainty persists:
The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered another rate cut last week but struck a cautious tone on further easing, leaving markets highly sensitive to any downside surprises in labour-market data.
Tech wobble saps momentum:
US equities retreated from record highs as disappointing results from Oracle and Broadcom weighed on the AI-heavy technology sector.
Europe and Asia face fresh headwinds:
Renewed stress in China’s property sector dragged on Asian equities, while Japan saw a sharp, tech-led sell-off amid valuation concerns and expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.
Year-end dynamics come into view:
With the S&P 500 up 16% in 2025, thinner holiday liquidity and profit-taking could amplify volatility if incoming data fails to support a risk-on narrative.
FTSE 100 resumes its ascent
The FTSE 100 lost upside momentum on Friday of last week and dropped to 9,633 before recovering on Monday morning.
Minor resistance may now be found around the 9,740 region up to the 9,744 early December peak and at Friday’s 9,763 high.
A rise above this high would likely engage the 9,788-to-9,792 resistance area. It comprises the late October-to-early November highs.
A slip through Friday’s 9,633 low would probably push the 9,605 region to the forefront. It is where the 14 and 17 November lows were made.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 10 December low at 9,608
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 9,423 November low
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart
