What goes hand-in-hand with international hockey? Roster-building debates.
Until Team USA names its official roster, there will be plenty of mock-ups and debates about what the best version of the team could be. And this time, there is even more excitement because it’s for the NHL’s return to the Olympics for the first time since 2014.
So let’s add to the chaos with another mock-up, and take a by-the-numbers approach to counter what The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn cooked up for Team Canada yesterday.
The numbers alone can’t build a perfect roster. The Model™ doesn’t account for specific roles, handedness, complementary skill sets, chemistry and overall vibes well enough. However, the model has evolved over the years to better understand usage, providing important context for players’ true value. That gives us a starting point to build off of.
Using an average of each player’s projected Net Rating and current pace this season, here is what a Team USA roster would look like purely based on The Numbers™.
As star-powered as this roster is at first glance, it’s not as complete or well-rounded as it could be. Here are some adjustments I would make, along with the thought process behind them.
Forwards
The locks
Already made it: Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk
Very likely locks: Jake Guentzel, Matt Boldy, Dylan Larkin
Larkin, like Brady Tkachuk, finally got the chance to show how electric he can be in a high-pressure environment. He’s a utility player who does all the little things well, and that builds to the Big Moments. Guentzel and Boldy, on the other hand, are all-around threats with their shooting, playmaking and two-way games. That gives Team USA a diverse group of skill to start with across its first seven forwards.
The debates
Is it Robertson’s time?
Jason Robertson would be in the ‘very likely lock category’ if it weren’t for a 4 Nations snub. But in my book, he’s a slam-dunk pick.
Robertson is shooting the puck more often and efficiently this year. At five-on-five, he is doing a better job of driving to the quality areas, and it’s translating on the scoresheet. His play-driving and sound defense, along with his increased power-play presence, have seriously upped his value this year.
Sure, there are drawbacks to his game — Robertson’s skating is imperfect and he hasn’t always excelled in a playoff environment. Those qualities matter because team-builders have to split hairs between top talents to put together the best possible roster. But the weaknesses don’t outweigh his strengths, which add up to a plus-10 Net Rating that ranks sixth in the league.
Goal scorers don’t grow on trees, and the USA needs more of them to stack up to a loaded Canadian squad. Add in the substance behind the scoring, and it makes him one of the best threats this roster could offer offensively. I don’t care how ‘heavy’ the games might be after 4 Nations, or how many role players are needed — those are concerns for lower in the lineup. This should be an easy decision to boost the top six’s scoring power.
Do the short kings make it?
Size apparently mattered at 4 Nations, where Cole Caufield and Alex DeBrincat were both snubbed. The Caufield decision was glaring because he had 16 goals in 25 games and was scoring at the fifth-highest rate when rosters dropped. It was justified by how much his skill set would clash with a fourth-line, penalty-killing role, but at the end of the day, it would have helped to have the extra scoring option.
DeBrincat has been a scoring chance machine and is converting on his chances at a high clip, and Caufield isn’t too far behind. Add in the fact that these two players are both right-handed shots and they bring even more value to the conversation.
But there are a few issues, similar to last season. The physicality is one; while fighting won’t be a factor under IIHF rules, it’s about having the juice to create space in tight games (and that’s before even talking about the rink dimensions). Then there’s the fact neither one of these wingers are play-drivers, defensive threats or penalty killers — and the latter is going to be a pressure point when building the bottom six.
That makes the path to building a complete roster with both of these players pretty complicated. DeBrincat has a higher Net Rating and has scored more at five-on-five this season. But Caufield gets the edge here thanks to his primary scoring and his usage. A consequence of playing with Nick Suzuki is facing one of the league’s toughest workloads in terms of quality of competition, so that experience is ultimately the difference; give him a two-way center for support and watch him cook.
Who will kill penalties?
Between Matthews, Larkin, Eichel and Guentzel, the USA already has some penalty-kill experience up front. But if this team is going to shut down a power play led by Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby and Cale Makar, it’s going to need more. This roster needs a few PKers who can be trusted to go over the boards for the initial draw against some of the best skaters in the world.
Boldy can lead the team on the wing; he plays almost 42 percent of the available short-handed time in Minnesota. And unlike some skill players, he isn’t just used on-the-fly against tired power players. While Larkin has experience at the dot on the top unit, he is used more as a specialist who comes off the ice within seconds of the draw. That will help in a pinch, but not consistently in this setting. So management needs to find a 4C who can shoulder that role.
That role likely belongs to J.T. Miller or Vincent Trocheck. The two were a part of the 4 Nations roster last year and are no strangers to playing tough minutes and killing penalties. But I’m not convinced either one has actually done enough to earn a coveted spot on this roster. Injuries shortened Trocheck’s chance to make more of an impact this year, and Miller playing through injury only limited his game (and time at center). Instead, Team USA has a stronger option out of New York: Long Island’s own Shane Pinto.
Pinto has absorbed some of the most challenging matchup minutes of any forward this season and has responded with some stout shutdown play. The Senators are stingy in Pinto’s minutes, only giving up 2.09 xGA per 60. But that commitment to defense doesn’t come at the expense of his offense; Ottawa has scored 3.80 goals per 60 with Pinto on the ice at five-on-five. Pair that with his penalty-killing responsibility and he could be Team USA’s version of Anthony Cirelli.
The penalty kill knocks Caufield out of the starting lineup and to the 13th slot in place of Alex Tuch, who brings some much-needed speed, disruptive play and secondary scoring. So between Pinto, Boldy and Tuch, the PK has a few options for the top unit, then Larkin, Eichel, etc. can get reps on the fly.
Who is the last cut?
Neither Jack Hughes nor Kyle Connor impressed at the 4 Nations, but that shouldn’t hold them out of action here. Hughes is elite in transition and a dangerous shooter. Connor can score goals in all different ways, has become more of a play-driver and can take reps on the penalty kill.
With these two on the roster, plus righties Caufield and Tuch, it all comes down to the 14th forward. On paper, that role should belong either to Cutter Gauthier, who has emerged as a scoring threat in Anaheim, or Clayton Keller, whose clutch scoring doesn’t get enough hype. The problem is, this team has enough left-handed wingers. And in Gauthier’s case, he doesn’t have a strong enough track record or defensive play to get a lot of trust in this setting.
Instead, the 14th forward should be a center who can bring some flexibility. After wilting at 4 Nations and coming off an injury, Hughes is a better fit for the wing this time. So Brock Nelson gets the edge here over another winger. His 4 Nations showing was pretty underwhelming, and he doesn’t have as dynamic a skill set as Keller, either. But he brings a lot of utility as someone who can be counted on to play a shutdown role and be deployed in any situation. It’s more than just his usage — Nelson has legitimately been that good in Colorado this year and is pacing towards a plus-11.1 Net Rating.
Other considerations
Tage Thompson: That right-handed shot is tempting, but he is scoring at a slower pace than last season when he was snubbed from Team USA. As much as his surroundings have to be accounted for, he isn’t elevating himself at center or wing on either end of the ice.
Matthew Knies: While he’s dishing the puck more this season, his shot volume and speed are both down. Pair that with some defensive concerns and he finds himself on the outside.
Logan Cooley: While Canada has some real debates around the young guns, Cooley always seemed like a long shot for the USA. Now with an eight-week injury timeline, he 1) doesn’t have the last-minute chance to prove himself and 2) would be right up against it with an early-February return, anyway.
Chris Kreider: Kreider is rebounding in Anaheim in the scoring chance creation and goal scoring departments; it just isn’t enough to justify bringing him as a net-front presence on the power play.
Josh Doan: The tenacious winger is really making a name for himself with the Sabres. Maybe he can become Brandon Hagel-lite for the USA, but he just isn’t there yet.
Defense
The locks
Already made it: Charlie McAvoy, Quinn Hughes
Very likely locks: Zach Werenski, Jaccob Slavin
Werenski pushed himself into both Hart and Norris conversations last year with his game-changing play in Columbus and is following that up with another stellar season. He is on pace for a plus-25 Net Rating, which puts him second among American defenders. Between Werenski and Hughes on the left, this blue line should be dynamic.
Slavin has only three games under his belt this year, but the roster-building process is bigger than just the current season. He has years of consistency and excellence fueling this pick, and even though he doesn’t play an old-school shutdown style, he still managed to put on a defensive clinic during the 4 Nations.
The debates
Who plays right defense?
The right side is open for debate behind McAvoy. It starts with Adam Fox, whose disappointing 4 Nations performance has shifted a lot of opinions around his game. While that’s not a perfect measuring stick for the regular season, it is worth keeping in mind here because the USA will have to face super-team opponents.
Can Fox handle it this year?
His playing style will always be viewed as somewhat of a limitation because he isn’t as electric as Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. But his vision, anticipation and poise still make him one of the best two-way defensemen in the world — and that’s been on display this season even after taking on a heavier burden in terms of quality of competition. He is on pace for a plus-28 Net Rating, which is the best among American defensemen.
Fox’s presence puts a puck-mover on the right, so the lineup isn’t too lopsided. Plus, with a glut of lefty forwards, it doesn’t hurt to have one right-handed quarterback option for the power play if the team needs a shake-up. So pencil Fox into the starting six with McAvoy.
That third slot is where things get even more interesting.
Where does Slavin play?
The easy answer is his strong side, the left. Except … playing Slavin on the left side punts Jake Sanderson to the press box, even though he is proving to be one of the best all-around defensemen in the league this year.
If it wasn’t for Sanderson, the U.S. could run back some combination of the original 4 Nations roster with ease. But the Senators’ No. 1 has forced his way into the conversation.
Could that shift Slavin to the right? It’s where he is currently slotting on the Hurricanes, and it would actually help smooth things over on the penalty kill, too. It’s just hard to envision the coaches shaking things up that much to fit Sanderson in — especially with a coaching staff led by Mike Sullivan (and assisted by David Quinn). Just last month, Sullivan said they prefer defensemen on their strong side, and that argument has even more merit here. With an abundance of lefties up front, it makes even less sense to take out an extra right-handed shooter on defense.
That makes Sanderson the No. 7, despite everything he brings to a lineup, and keeps Slavin on the left to start. But Sanderson should get a chance to prove he belongs in game action; it’s a waste to have one of the best puck retrievers in the press box.
Who kills penalties?
Slavin and McAvoy will play a heavy share of the PK, but below them it gets a bit more complicated. Fox hasn’t killed penalties much this season, but that has less to do with his short-handed ability and more to do with the Rangers’ overall distribution of ice time with the constraints of their roster. Even with him, the USA needs more options.
As much sense as Ryan McDonagh or Dylan Samberg would make here, neither lefty will make the cut if Sanderson is in the press box. Maybe Werenski, who is a part of the Blue Jackets’ second unit and generally gets on-the-fly deployment, gets played here instead.
Would a Werenski-Fox pairing be trusted enough to go against Canada’s best, though? They could help the USA generate more short-handed looks, but I get the argument for a little more certainty against power plays of this caliber.
There are two ways to solve this: 1) play Slavin on the right at even strength and left on the penalty kill, to make room for Sanderson and creating units of Slavin-McAvoy and Sanderson-Fox, or 2) make sure to bring a stout penalty-killing right-handed defenseman to play with Werenski, instead of Fox.
Enter Brock Faber.
Between Faber’s connections with Team USA’s general manager Bill Guerin, his developing chemistry with Quinn Hughes and his experience at the 4 Nations, he is basically a lock for the roster. And while there are better options by the numbers (since Faber is only pacing a plus-3.5 Net Rating), I think he should be included here. This is someone who can eat a lot of difficult minutes at even strength and on the PK.
At even strength, he could easily slide beside his new regular-season partner, Hughes, to help the USA roll out three balanced pairs (alongside Werenski-McAvoy and Slavin-Fox).
Who is the last cut?
K’Andre Miller’s raw skill set and glow-up with the Hurricanes make him an attractive enough pick. But again, that loads this team up even more on the left.
Adding a righty is just the more sound option in case of injury (think McAvoy in the 4 Nations), or if Fox can’t shake it in this setting. Then it’s a matter of picking between John Carlson and Seth Jones.
As well as Carlson has played lately, I’m just not enamored by his defense this season. And I’m concerned about his game in this environment with his last postseason in mind. As the game tightened up, he showed his age last spring. Instead, I would rather go with a safer utility pick in Jones, considering how much his game has stabilized since joining the Panthers.
Other considerations:
Lane Hutson: As exciting as Hutson is, his skill set is too redundant here. The USA doesn’t need another power-play quarterback with Hughes, Werenski and Fox all in the lineup, and the coaches probably won’t be willing to play the undersized defenseman in short-handed situations just yet. There’s a bright future for him, but he needs a little more seasoning first.
Jackson LaCombe: The fact LaCombe is getting a shout-out here is a testament to his growth as a great top-four puck-moving defenseman. He has some defensive warts to work out ahead of 2030.
Noah Hanifin: Hanifin’s a jack of all trades, but his play hasn’t been as eye-catching without Alex Pietrangelo this season. Sanderson jumped over him on the left.
Luke Hughes: As fun as it would be to have all three Hughes on the same team, Luke’s actual play just hasn’t matched the hype enough this season. Maybe in 2030.
The goalies
Even after missing three weeks of action, Connor Hellebuyck sits fifth in goals saved above expected through 16 games. Year after year, he proves he is the best regular-season goalie in the world. It’s just in the spring when problems emerge. The big question is whether it’s the yips in a high-pressure environment or just a result of being overworked every regular season. If Hellebuyck’s play at the 4 Nations is any indication, there isn’t anything to worry about. So he starts as the No. 1 here. But if (or when) he can’t rise to the occasion, there will be two other elite options to choose from.
That starts with Jeremy Swayman, who has earned his place as the No. 2 goalie. Whether it was the late start to the year due to his contract situation dragging out or a rough adjustment to becoming The Guy in net, Swayman is proving last year was a fluke. He is so back with the fourth-best GSAx in the league.
The third choice is where things get difficult. Dustin Wolf and Joey Daccord have fallen behind last year’s pace, which knocks them out of the race. So it comes down to Spencer Knight, who has been outstanding in Chicago this season, and Jake Oettinger, who has a stronger track record.
Knight has been the better goalie, despite carrying a much tougher workload. But my only worry is that he will eventually hit a wall from playing behind that Chicago defense (and the next few weeks without Connor Bedard, and less goal support, may only exacerbate it).
The other consideration is Oettinger’s playoff experience, with Hellebuyck’s postseason woes in mind. That’s what gives him the slightest edge here to round out the crease. But these are really just champagne problems compared to what Team Canada has to deal with.
The final roster
The Numbers™ generated a solid baseline, but I made a handful of necessary tweaks to give Team USA a more complete roster: Alex Tuch for Alex DeBrincat, Brock Nelson for Clayton Keller, Brock Faber for John Carlson, Jaccob Slavin for K’Andre Miller, and Jake Oettinger for Spencer Knight. The real test is how this iteration of the roster will stack up to the real thing next month.
Here’s the final roster.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
