Opinion: A Netflix deal for Warner means curtains for Crave unless Canadian regulators step in

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The Netflix logo on one of their buildings in the Hollywood neighborhood of Los Angeles on Dec. 8. Although the Warner acquisition is not yet a done deal, it looks likely to proceed.Daniel Cole/Reuters

Shaquille Morgan is a writer, community organizer and policy consultant in social housing. He is the author of the book The Space Between and runs the blog lifeunravelled.ca.

In early December, Netflix announced that it would be acquiring Warner Bros. from Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) for US$72-billion. The deal includes Warner’s film and television studios, HBO Max, and HBO, meaning Netflix will own the company’s critically acclaimed catalogue of movies and television shows like The Wire, Game of Thrones, and The Sopranos.

In Canada, content from HBO is exclusively licensed to Bell Media for its streaming platform, Crave. When the deal is finalized, HBO content will be offered to Netflix subscribers, increasing Netflix’s market share in the streaming space and making Crave redundant.

So, unless the Competition Bureau of Canada obliges Netflix to sell its HBO assets, the writing is on the wall. And it reads: Crave – your days are numbered.

The acquisition of Warner Bros. by Netflix caught the entertainment industry by surprise. The deal likely requires approval by antitrust regulators at the U.S. Department of Justice to be finalized, but Netflix expects this to come after WBD splits the company in two in late 2026.

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Key to the DOJ’s review is the question of whether the transaction will allow Netflix to monopolize the streaming industry. Currently, Netflix leads the world in subscribers, while HBO Max (including Discovery+ content) ranks within the top five. With this purchase, Netflix’s already large market share would be significantly over 30 per cent, further outpacing its competitors like Prime, Disney+, and Paramount+.

Canada faces an analogous question but with stiffer consequences for Crave, the country’s premier domestic streaming company. Today, Netflix is the most subscribed streaming service in Canada, with about nine million subscribers. Crave, on the other hand, has 4.3 million subscribers. While it’s unknown how many customers subscribe to both services, many Canadians use Crave specifically to access HBO’s catalogue.

Should the DOJ review and approve the deal, the Competition Bureau must require Netflix to sell HBO assets to a Canadian buyer to preserve competition in the Canadian market. I say this because for Netflix to optimize the acquired content’s value, their best move is to offer it on their own platform. Subsequently, it’s likely that Netflix will either pay to void their contract with Bell Media or allow it to expire.

The impact on Crave will be mass migration to Netflix as content becomes consolidated and subscribers seek out cost savings. The scale of this exodus could be in the hundreds of thousands, putting Crave in a compromising position and jeopardizing its survival. This is particularly concerning because Bell Media expanded its long-term partnership agreement with WBD in 2024.

The deal would then leave Crave with a content gap that can’t meaningfully be filled through other partnerships or even Canadian television shows. This might sound dismissive of Canadian content, but what gives Crave its value proposition and market edge is HBO Max’s content. That content provides the company with direct access to the Canadian market without WBD having to build its own infrastructure and navigate government regulations. It’s a mutually beneficial relationship with Crave arguably gaining the most.

Now although Crave is also home to Canadian television shows, they lack the notoriety and volume required to live up to HBOs seasoned content library. In an era where quantity, variety, and actor reputations drive subscribership, this doesn’t bode well for Crave. Neither does it bode well for Canadian television and film as HBO was to co-produce original Canadian and Bell Media content to be licensed for use on WBD platforms outside of Canada.

Although the Warner acquisition is not a done deal at the time of writing, it looks likely to proceed. In the meantime, Canada has time to prepare for a successful outcome. If it’s approved, the bureau must require Netflix to sell HBO to preserve market competition. In the short run, the public might lose, given the higher costs to maintain multiple subscriptions; but in the long run, we avoid monopolistic price setting and can build Canadian talent. To erase the writing on the wall, that cost is a sacrifice I’m willing to make.