Bowl season is notoriously tricky when it comes to betting. The list of players who opt out of the non-CFP games only seems to grow with every passing day. You never truly know who’s playing until kickoff. With that said, what fun would bowl season be without taking our best guess at how it will go?
Today, we’ll be examining a handful of the larger bowl games and the first round of the CFP.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
Alabama (-1.5) at Oklahoma, O/U 40.5, 8 p.m. Friday
In a game that can’t come soon enough for Michigan fans, Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide travel to Norman for a rematch with Oklahoma. Alabama was favored by 6.5 in the first matchup in Tuscaloosa, but Oklahoma won outright, 23-21. While my rooting interests lie with Oklahoma for…reasons…I’ll be taking the under. Alabama is 4-9 against the total while Oklahoma is a putrid 2-10. Both offenses have disappointed this year and have given me no inclination this game will be any different.
Miami at Texas A&M (-3), O/U 49.5, Noon Saturday
The spread hasn’t budged an inch since it was released. That’s probably because the money bet on each side is 50/50, per The Action Network. There aren’t a ton of strong indicators in this one, as Miami tends to go under while A&M goes over primarily. Against the spread, Miami is slightly better than A&M, but both are hovering around .500. My gut tells me the Aggies’ offense was exposed a bit in their season finale against Texas. After playing virtually the softest SEC schedule possible, the A&M offense may not be all it was cracked up to be. With that in mind, give me the under.
Tulane at Ole Miss (-17.5), O/U 56.5, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
The line has gently slid towards Ole Miss since the initial shock of Lane Kiffin’s departure drastically affected this matchup. Like Oklahoma vs. Alabama, this is a rematch of a regular season game. In that game, Ole Miss won decisively, 45-10. I just don’t see how the absence of Kiffin makes up the difference from 35 points to 17. On top of that, the Rebels are 6-3 ATS as a favorite. Give me Ole Miss in a blowout.
James Madison at Oregon (-21.5), O/U 47.5, 7:30 p.m. Saturday
Thw spread here started at 20 and jumped out to 21.5. Both teams have been very good ATS, as James Madison is 8-5 while Oregon is 8-4. Both are 7-3 ATS in their last 10. Nothing jumps off the page when it comes to the total, so we’ll stick with the spread. I’m nervous about it, but I like JMU’s chances here. It is a respectable 4-2 ATS on the road, 1-0 ATS as an underdog, has nothing to lose and will be playing for a coach who’s headed to greener pastures after their playoff run is over.
The pick: James Madison +21.5
Penn State vs. Clemson (-3.5), O/U 48.5, Noon 12/27 in Bronx, New York
I couldn’t not include this game in our slate of picks due to the hilarity of it. These two preseason national championship contenders will face off in Yankee Stadium in late December without James Franklin on the sidelines. Hysterical. This pick is fairly straightforward for me. Per The Action Network, the bet split here is just 5/49, but the spread has moved drastically from Penn State -1.5 to Clemson -3.5. There’s big money on the Tigers here, causing the spread to cross the bridge.
Georgia Tech vs. BYU (-4.5), O/U 56.5, 3:30 p.m. 12/27 in Orlando, Florida
Thanks to Notre Dame taking its ball and going home, we now get Georgia Tech vs. BYU in the famed PopTarts Bowl. The spread has slowly slid toward the Cougars and for good reason. BYU lost just twice all year and both were to the same team, Texas Tech. BYU could be the second-best team in college football and no one would know it. On top of that, BYU is a stellar 9-4 ATS and 7-2 ATS as a favorite. Georgia Tech has had a fun season, but doesn’t stack up statistically with the Cougars.
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (-5.5), O/U 47.5, Noon 12/31 in Tampa, Florida
By now, you’re likely accustomed to reading statistical arguments for picks in this column each week. Forgive me on this pick, as I’m relying strictly on my gut. Iowa is going to win this game. This matchup features flashy, Heisman-finalist Diego Pavia with ho-hum, boring Iowa in Florida on New Year’s Eve. This is exactly the type of game that Iowa wins when they have no right doing so. If that doesn’t convince you, the only additional stat I can provide is Iowa is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
Michigan vs. Texas (-7.5), O/U 46.5, 3 p.m. 12/31 in Orlando, Florida
This pick will likely look foolish by the time the game comes around. By then, Michigan will likely have hired a new coach, the current coaches may or may not have left, and all or none of the roster will have hit the portal. Half the Texas defense has already opted out of the game as well with no end in sight. Texas is certainly more disappointed to be in the Citrus Bowl than Michigan is.
At the end of the day, this pick comes down to who will be the players on the field on game day. My gut tells me Michigan won’t have many opt-outs as even the players who aren’t enamored with the new coaching hire will likely use the game as an opportunity to put their skills on film. There will be more to play for for the Wolverines than for the Longhorns. Give me the Wolverines while the spread is still over a touchdown.
