Basketball is a game of runs, and so too is the marathon of the 82-game NBA season.
We’ve watched the highest of highs for the Toronto Raptors, only to watch them drop six of their last seven.
The Chicago Bulls looked ready to break the play-in tournament glass ceiling before losing seven straight games.
Yet some teams, like the Oklahoma City Thunder, can’t stop running teams out of the gym.
Once an absurd prediction, the threat of them breaking the all-time regular-season wins record now seems truly possible.
With the NBA Cup knockout stage in full swing, we get a bit of respite to recalibrate and evaluate.
In parallel with the ebbs and flows of the season, the NBA futures markets are still surprisingly volatile.
While some, like MVP, have stabilized, opportunities remain plentiful in several of the others.
As I did last season when I flagged Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +350 for MVP and Stephon Castle at +1000 for Rookie of the Year, I’ll try to call out some worthy dart throws.
Before I get there though, the OKC situation must be addressed.
OKC to break Golden State’s 73-win record
There are two markets that essentially go hand-in-hand.
- SGA to win MVP, +110
- OKC to win 74+ games, +235
Coming into the year, FanDuel had OKC’s line set at 62.5 wins.
They are currently on a 78-win pace.
I was on SportsCentre three weeks ago when they were 15-1 and flagged this market being created on FanDuel.
It was listed at +1280 that night, and I called it “far-fetched”.
You can imagine the level of regret I carry today.
That’s a 4x multiple in implied probability then versus now.
I’m not here to break down the likelihood of them doing it; I will tell you I think they are absolutely capable.
I want to point out my belief that the 74-win bet is better than SGA for MVP.
By every advanced metric, basic metric, or eye test, it’s widely accepted that Nikola Jokic is the more impactful player.
To SGA’s credit, he averages 3.1 more points and 1.6 less turnovers a night.
But Jokic is fifth in the league in scoring while being league leader in rebounds and assists.
SGA’s on/off differential is 7.6 per 100 possessions.
The Nuggets have a 17.7-point drop-off when Jokic sits.
Individually, Jokic is the better player and having the better season.
From a team perspective, though, if OKC has a historic season, I think voters won’t have a choice like Stephen Curry’s unanimous MVP in 2016.
But what if OKC come up short?
The noise will be deafening about Jokic being snubbed for a second straight career-best season.
Even if the Thunder crack 70 wins, I’d guess Jokic will get his due as the world’s best player.
As outrageous as the prospect of it happening is, I’d rather bet OKC 74+ wins at +235 than SGA for MVP at +110.
Front-runner – Deni Avdija, +220 to win Most Improved Player
MIP is a fickle award because the criteria is so undefined.
Dyson Daniels won the George Mikan Trophy last year and was the youngest player since Monta Ellis in 2006-07 to do so.
He’s also finished with the lowest scoring average of any MIP since Boris Diaw in 2005-06.
While a worthy winner, Daniels was the exception to the rule of recent memory.
Prior to him, the last five winners all held one commonality – they all made their first-ever All-Star Team.
Avdija certainly has a worthy stat profile.
His scoring is up from 16.9 to 25.4 ppg and his assists have gone from 3.9 to 6.2 apg.
I have three main gripes with his case:
- Two key teammates have been out – Jrue Holiday has missed 13 games and Scoot Henderson has yet to make his season debut.
- After starting 5-3, the Blazers have cratered back to a 9-16 record.
- The book is out on whether he’ll make the All-Star Team.
With this new format, eight players will be represented by the World Team.
Is he ahead of any of these guys? SGA, Jokic, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, Alperen Sengun, or Jamal Murray.
We can debate if you feel otherwise.
That leaves him in a fight between Franz Wagner, Pascal Siakam, Josh Giddey, and Lauri Markkanen.
Given Portland’s drop in the standings, I’m not convinced an 11th-seeded team will be rewarded with an All-Star.
Alternative – Austin Reaves, +430 to win Most Improved Player
When you look at the list of past MIP winners, a lot of superstar players jump out.
Jimmy Butler once won this award in 2014-15, Giannis is on this list, and most recently, Tyrese Maxey won two seasons ago.
I think the voters shift back to big game hunting this year.
To me, Reaves has the biggest superstar potential on the list.
Going from 20.2 ppg to 27.8 is already eye-popping; he’s ninth in scoring alongside league leader Doncic at 35.0 ppg.
What gets me more excited about his case is the Father Time version of LeBron James.
The King looks to finally have taken a step back. His scoring is down by 8.9 ppg, while his usage sits at 22.0 percent versus 29.1 last year.
I was reluctant to back Reaves early on, thinking LBJ’s return would dull his stats.
Instead, Reaves remains the Lakers’ second option. Here’s how his stats compare:
Pre-LeBron (11 games): 28.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 8.2 apg, 48.2 field-goal percentage
Post-LeBron (10 games): 27.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 5.1 apg, 52.9 field-goal percentage
His numbers have marginally dropped off.
Los Angeles has been 7-3 since LBJ returned and sit fourth in the West.
It would be shocking if Reaves doesn’t make his first All-Star Team this year.
Front-runner – Mark Daigneault, +230 to win Coach of the Year
I will die on this hill – Daigneault cannot win this award after doing so two years ago.
Yes, OKC might make history.
Yes, their success is a sum of their parts, not just one individual superstar.
But with the quality of coaches in today’s NBA, not to mention other Hall of Famers who’ve yet to win this award, I find it improbable.
Only two coaches in NBA history have won COTY with the same team – Don Nelson with the Bucks and Gregg Popovich with the Spurs.
Alternative – Joe Mazzulla, +2200 to win Coach of the Year
Credit is due to my Basketball Island podmate, Michael “Hambone” Hamarneh, for this flag.
It fits what I wrote about at the top of this article – the ebbs and flows of an 82-game season.
A lot of the teams that got off to a blazing start have their coaches at the top of the list for COTY – Detroit, Toronto, Miami, Phoenix, etc.
But lurking in the shadows has been Mazzulla and his former champion Celtics, reminding fans that winning DNA flows through his team.
While they had a rocky 5-7 start to the season, their offence has finally started to click leading to a 10-3 stretch since.
It’s hard to predict whether Mazzulla will get credit for working with this patchwork roster he was handed.
The Celtics, like Indiana, were expected to go through a gap year as they manage through Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury.
They lost three other rotation pieces from the championship in Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford.
Instead of rotting, Mazzulla has squeezed all the juice out of his lemons making contributors out of guys like Neemias Queta, Jordan Walsh and Josh Minott.
Boston currently sits third in the East with the league’s fifth-best point differential.
Over this 13-game stretch, they own the league’s top offensive rating.
His fingerprints on the team remain – they’re first in three-pointers made and average the fewest turnovers per game at 11.8.
Beginning the season at a 41.5 win total on FanDuel, their line is now up to 49.5.
I don’t think he’s a surefire bet by any means, but given his +2200 price, I think it’s wise to have some exposure in case Boston ends up sticking in the Top-3 in the East.
